Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Chancellor John Healey's first Budget last Wednesday raised taxes while keeping the planned current budget surplus by 2030, and it did not trigger the gilt market sell-off some investors had feared, with the 10-year UK gilt yield easing to 5.28% from 5.36%. The bank corporation tax surcharge was temporarily doubled to 6%, and £20.4 billion was committed to the National Wealth Fund and the Brit...

UK inflation accelerated to 3.5% in the year to September from 3.1% in August, its fastest pace since October 2025 and above the 3.4% consensus, driven by transport and motor fuels. Producer input price inflation reached 8.3% from 6.7% in August, with crude oil the largest contributor, pointing to cost pressure still in the pipeline. Unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August from 4.9...

Navigating the upcoming budget: Key takeaways for investors Join Walker Crips Investment's Senior Investment Analyst Alan Philip and Investment Director James Richards as they break down potential policy shifts and what the latest budget announcements could mean for your investments. To find out more about investing with Walker Crips, please click here to request a call back . Important inform...

The UK economy grew 0.1% in August from July, against expectations of a 0.1% decline, with production up 0.8%, services flat and construction down 0.2%, leaving the month's Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") growth resting on one sector. The trade deficit narrowed to £920 million from £2.32 billion in July. Consumer evidence was softer, with the British Retail Consortium reporting retail...

The UK composite purchasing managers' index ("PMI"), a survey which tracks the health of the UK private-sector economy, eased to 52 in September from 52.5 in August, leaving activity growing but more slowly, and the British Retail Consortium put total footfall down 2.9% in the year to September from 1.7% in August. Gilts moved against that softness, the yield rising 7 basis points to...

The UK economy grew faster than first thought in the second quarter of 2026, with UK gross domestic product ("GDP") revised up to 0.5% from 0.4% by the Office for National Statistics (“ONS”), with the services sector doing most of the work. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI"), a survey of how manufacturers themselves see conditions, edged up to 51.9 in Sept...

UK economic activity data has softened as the Budget on 28 October draws closer. The flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI") fell to 51.7 in September from 52.5 on weaker services growth, though manufacturing was more resilient at 52 and input cost inflation accelerated on higher fuel costs. The Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) retail sales balance fell to minus 5...

The Bank of England held the base interest rate at 3.75% last Thursday by a six to three vote, the dissenters favouring an immediate increase, and warned that rates may need to rise if the energy shock feeds into more persistent inflation. It also slowed balance sheet reduction, giving gilt markets relief and leaving the 10-year yield five basis points lower at 5.29%. The decision followed consume...

Last week, UK investors closely monitored macroeconomic signals while looking ahead to the Bank of England's (“BoE”) forthcoming monetary policy meeting, where expectations remain firm that the base rate will be held at 3.75%. The pressure on central bank decision makers remains intense as the domestic inflation picture continues to present a challenge. Headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) inflat...

Surging higher borrowing costs are expected to create further headwinds for the UK economy ahead of the 28 October 2026 budget, threatening to shrink the Treasury headroom by up to £12 billion, due to the 10-year government debt yields surging past 5.2%, as increasing energy prices reignited inflation concerns, prompting calls for the Bank of England (“BoE”) to pause active bond sales. In the cons...

Last week in the UK, economic data showed that optimism amongst British businesses grew in August as Lloyds Bank’s confidence index rose to 53%, the highest since the start of the Iran conflict. Business inflation expectations fell to a five-year low, whilst the latest Citi/YouGov survey showed an increase in the general public’s expectation of higher inflation, meaning that perhaps households are...

Last week, Bank of England policymakers faced expectations of rates holding at 3.75%, with nearly 90% of economists predicting “no change” despite market pricing for increases. Headline Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July from 2.6%, while core inflation held at 2.6%. Although food inflation eased to 2.1%, energy price caps are predicted to rise 4% in October, which could cau...

Last week, Bank of England policymakers faced renewed monetary tightening expectations, especially as Chief Economist and Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill voted for rate hikes in four consecutive decisions, arguing that resilient quarterly growth of 0.4% in June supports higher interest rates. While Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey had previously downplayed the possibility of rate c...

Last week, Purchasing Manager’s Index (“PMI”) mixed signals pointed to a modest UK economic recovery. Whilst UK business activity saw a first rise in three months, driving the broader economy up, manufacturing and construction remain laggards, meaning that sustainable growth will depend on whether supply chain and inflation pressures continue to moderate. However, the geopolitical reasons are thre...

All eyes were on the Bank of England (“BoE”) on Thursday for its latest interest rate decision. The Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold the rate at 3.75%. This dovish stance comes after a split six versus three vote, where investors placed greater weight on the cautious remarks from Governor Andrew Bailey. The BoE remains alert over supply shocks such as oil volatility, food inflation, the e...

Last week, Bank of England policymakers faced renewed monetary tightening expectations, especially as money markets now fully price further increases and anticipate upcoming hikes if oil prices continue to rise. Elsewhere, the UK Purchasing Managers' Index reached a three-month high of 52.1, driven by a notable recovery in the services sector, and UK retail sales surprised on the upside in June, r...

In the first of our new video podcast series, James Richards and Ben Potter discuss artificial intelligence ("AI") valuations, inflation, gold, gilts and where they see markets going for the remainder of 2026. Listen to the first episode of new Walker Crips podcast. Watch the video podcast on our Youtube channel here: https://youtu.be/TjU8ZxXJlIc To find out more about the investment management se...

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted clear financial stability risks, noting the central bank must monitor price inflation hitting 3.2%. Consequently, policymakers are facing renewed monetary tightening expectations, especially as money markets now fully price further increases and anticipate upcoming hikes if oil volatility persists. Elsewhere, the British economy...

Last week, Bank of England Chief Economist, Huw Pill, downplayed any near-term rate cuts, noting the central bank must keep inflation under control. Consequently, policymakers are maintaining a cautious stance, especially as Monetary Policy Committee official Megan Greene signalled a readiness to hike rates if domestic overheating persists. Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund upgraded the U...

Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey downplayed the possibility of rate cuts this year, noting the central bank is comfortable leaving interest rates on hold. While inflation is expected to return to its 2% target later than preferred, markets have already tightened the bond yield curve. Soaring energy costs remain a concern, with upcoming price cap increases threatening to push milli...

Last week was marked by the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation on Monday, despite the exit being expected, anxieties still developed and the British economy continued to stall under cost pressures. The initial hit to corporate confidence was laid bare by a sharp contraction in the flash June Purchasing Managers' Index, as it slumped to a 14-month low. Manufacturing orders hit a six-year...

Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey defended the recent gilt sales programme, arguing that it remains broadly neutral for everyday taxpayers. While the Iran war threatens widespread price increases, the Monetary Policy Committee chose to hold interest rates. Soaring energy costs have fuelled worries about rapid deindustrialisation risks, which currently offshore roughly 25% of domest...

Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) may need to be rationed due to energy capacity constraints limiting deployment. While the Iran conflict threatens widespread price increases, the Monetary Policy Committee expects no further interest rate increases. Workplace disruption has fuelled worries about rapid technological shifts, which currently...

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the central bank must restore public confidence in its official 2% inflation target. This assertion follows new internal research detailing the high costs of bond liquidations. While the Iran conflict threatens widespread price increases, the Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) expects subsequent interest rate increases to follow....

Last week, Britain’s economic landscape continued to struggle due to the energy shock driven by the conflict in Iran, leading to Ofgem (“the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets”) announcing a 13% rise in energy bills. This and other inflationary measures mean the headline inflation will likely remain above the BoE’s (“Bank of England”) target for a fifth consecutive year. BoE Governor Andrew Bai...