The Weekly Fix

A fragile equilibrium in fixed income: high yields persist despite tight conditions, creating potential opportunities for disciplined credit selection. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how elevated yields and tight spreads create a deceptively simple market environment that may reward active security selection and quality upgrade...

Current energy shocks collide with restrictive monetary policy, creating a different challenge for fixed income investors than 2022. Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how today’s potential inflation shock differs from a few years ago, and why timing may matter for bond investors positioning ahead of a perceived peak. Today's ene...

Markets bounced back, but some investors still aren't buying it. Despite the recovery in equities, positioning remains cautious as high yield fundamentals hold firm. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay Leveraged Finance team, discusses the evolving dynamics between quality carry and market timing in today's environment. The S&P recovered to flat for the year, yet investors...

Quality over risk in volatile markets: Middle East tensions are influencing bond investors toward safer U.S. positions while energy prices create challenges across global economies. Andrzej Skiba, Head of U.S. Fixed Income on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down how geopolitical events are shaping bond strategies and why regional economic exposures differ significantly. Markets ha...

A new $55B deal rewrites the leveraged buyout playbook with equity-heavy financing. Jeff Jablons, Senior High Yield Analyst covering telecom, cable, satellite, and technology sectors on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how a video game company’s take-private deal shatters conventional leveraged buyout dynamics. The capital structure flips convention with $36 billion in equity ver...

Cut expectations evaporate: Federal Reserve easing bets collapsed after March meeting as geopolitical risks and inflation concerns pushed rate hike probabilities above cut scenarios for the first time since last month's two-cut consensus. Eric Hathaway, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores three catalysts that could revive rate cut expectations despite current hawkish...

Private credit's software problem creates a potential opportunity for high yield as exposure gaps reveal structural vulnerabilities in direct lending portfolios. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, analyzes how AI-driven repricing may redirect capital flows across credit markets. Widespread credit repricing pushes spreads to widest levels si...

Corporate credit faces volatility as private credit stress rises, AI divides borrowers, and IG primary strength masks widening dispersion. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how stagflation-style stress and cross-asset volatility are reshaping the credit landscape and potentially creating selective opportunities. Private credit deterioration is accele...

Positioning pays off: Conservative allocations and incoming cash flows shield high yield investors from geopolitical volatility that rattled broader markets. Peter Keenan, Senior Credit Trader on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how cash flows and positioning created an unexpected buffer against Middle East tensions. High yield bonds showed resilience despite heightened Middle Ea...

RBC’s BlueBay Fixed Income team discusses how US markets have shown resilience with contained inflation, though heavy tech sector debt issuance from AI investment creates credit market pressure while raising questions about potential future inflationary risks. January CPI rose just 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annually, below consensus, keeping two 2026 rate cuts priced in. Technology sector's elevated 2...

Trump nominates Warsh for Fed chair as new governors potentially reshape this year’s rate outlook. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down how FOMC leadership changes and political headwinds are shaping the Fed's uncertain 2026 policy path. Rates held at 3.50–3.75% as four hawkish members joined, though dissents from Governors Miran and Waller favor...

Will tighter spreads hold as supply floods the market? Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses the Fed's steady approach and how heavy corporate issuance is shaping the credit landscape. The Fed is expected to hold rates this week, with the potential for up to 3 cuts later in 2026. Corporate fundamentals remain solid, though shorter-da...

Signals of strength? U.S. banks’ Q4 earnings highlight steady fundamentals and confidence heading into 2026. John Guarnera, Senior Corporate Analyst on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, analyzes the latest bank results and their implications for both economic fundamentals and sector positioning. Investment banking surged—M&A advisory revenues climbed over 40% in some banks—while equity...

Tight spreads, tighter credit: What’s next for high-yield? Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM’s BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, shares insights on high-yield market dynamics and potential credit risks in the year ahead. Spreads across high-yield markets remain tight, supported by strong investor interest and steady issuance. High-yield bond issuance can align with positive returns, und...

A year of high returns or high risks? Fixed income markets look to navigate 2026’s key challenges. In the latest edition of The Weekly Fix, Andrzej Skiba, BlueBay Head of U.S. Fixed Income at RBC GAM, explores a strong fixed income outlook for the new year, driven by carry income and economic momentum. However, the year also brings critical questions about monetary policy, the AI-driven capital wa...

Amid high-short term rates and diverging Fed opinions, investors have turned to money market funds, waiting for clarity on the economic outlook. In this week’s episode, Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager with RBC’s BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, highlights key trends shaping cash management strategies: The Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50–3.75%, with varied perspectives on t...

Is the AI boom testing market limits, or uncovering new opportunities in fixed income for 2026? Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores the outlook for U.S. fixed income markets in 2026, focusing on Federal Reserve policy, the credit cycle, and the impact of surging AI-driven debt issuance. We expect a hawkish rate cut to close 2025, si...

Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores how the longest-ever government shutdown has led to a data backlog, intensifying bond market volatility and uncertainty surrounding December’s FOMC rate decision. The 43-day government shutdown delayed critical economic data releases, distorting analysis and increasing market volatility as inves...

With more volatility potentially on the horizon, we believe US High Yield bonds can provide a ‘port in the storm’. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM’s BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explains how US High Yield (HY) bonds have continued to stand out as a reliable option for generating income while managing rate risk during periods of market uncertainty. The US HY index currently provid...

Big Tech is reshaping the bond market. Are investors ready for Silicon Valley’s mega issuances? Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses a tectonic shift in Silicon Valley’s funding strategy. Once cash-rich with pristine balance sheets, major tech companies are now tapping the investment-grade bond market to finance their soaring AI-related capital expenditures....

Divided Fed, uncertain future: Powell’s cautious tone raises questions about policy shifts ahead. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager with RBC GAM’s BlueBay US Fixed Income team, highlights the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and its impact on cash strategies amid ongoing economic uncertainties. The Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, while signaling caution regarding De...

Systemic risk, or just unusual events? Recent market turbulence leaves some questions about how long high valuations and tight spreads will continue. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC BlueBay’s US Fixed Income team, discusses the current market landscape and opportunities for active managers. Equities at record highs and tight credit spreads indicate market resilience, despite...

Credit cycle deterioration? Not so fast- new earnings reports from the banking sector ease fears of financially stretched consumers and companies. John Guarnera, Senior Corporate Analyst on RBC BlueBay’s US Fixed Income Team, explores the latest data from US banks and an outlook on recent credit market developments. Third-quarter earnings from major US banks revealed stable asset quality and impro...

US High Yield continues to perform well this quarter- but geopolitical volatility demands strategic positioning. In this edition of #TheWeeklyFix, Charlie Whinery, Portfolio Manager on RBC BlueBay’s US Fixed Income Team, breaks down Q3's strong performance and how his team is navigating current market dynamics. US HY delivered solid 2.4% returns in Q3 with robust $140B issuance, low leverage level...

Amid a shifting market landscape, fixed income strategies are evolving to uncover value in key sectors. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC GAM, shares how his team is navigating today’s market dynamics while seeking to position for strong returns in 2026. Favoring curve steepeners for U.S. interest rate exposure, with resilience expected unless inflation drops significantly or...