The Bayesian Conspiracy

Four Major AI Advancements In One Week! New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models – essentially everyone has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute Googles Pathways Language Model explains jokes , and it can distinguish cause and effect and understand counterfactuals DALL-E 2 makes amazing art on demand Socratic Modeling system 1:39:51  LW posts Also men...

We address theoretical cryonics concerns, and discuss Guzey’s Theses On Sleep 3:15  Cryonics Concerns 49:21  Theses On Sleep 1:23:01  LW posts 1:50:16  Thank the Patron Also mentioned: LW Cryonics Probability Estimates guide Our episode with Rudy Hoffman Lifespan podcast Limitless w Chris Hemsworth Counter-theses on Sleep Scott Alexander’s Sleep Is The Mate Of Death Cryonics Insitute F...

The Conspirators regroup to discuss if/how their views on monarchy have changed. The full episode is available for our Patrons Mentioned: List of Current States With Monarchs CGP Gray’s Rules for Rulers (Keys of Power) Tears For Fears – Everybody Wants To Rule The World (warning – crappy 80s song)

We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism . 1:44:50 LW posts 2:14:45 Thank the Patron Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com Also mentioned: Gray Mirror Substack Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe Jace’s counterargument is basically a link to Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ We did a &#8220...

We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets. 0:01 Jace on Lithium 21:10 Feedback 26:05 LW posts 50:06 Nuclear Ukraine 59:43 Nuclear Us 1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s Small Dick Energy Warcasting – ACX and Zvi Razom Ukraine delivers medical supplies Robert Wiblin leaving...

We discuss A Chemical Hunger – the paper presenting the hypothesis that the modern obesity epidemic is due to enviromental contamination causing widespread lithium poisoning. EDIT – MAJOR UPDATE – It’s probably not lithium ! Links to become a patron of this group , or contact them BMI Calculator Less Wrong Posts – 5:53 Main Topic – 15:09 Thank the Patron –...

This is a trailer for a bonus Patrons-only episode. It’s 45 minutes chatting with Aella about various things that struck Eneasz’s interest. Aella’s twitter is Aella_Girl . Homepage at Knowingless , also has a substack .

The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions , which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method ! Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad . (Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let that dissuade you in this instance.) Things of interest: Scott Alexander&#8...

A few days ago I asked Wes a couple follow-up questions on wireheading, and later chatted with Emilio from the Discord on-record. I thought it wouldn’t be too long, but it turned out to go about as long as a full episode. So now there’s a bonus episode available for Patrons (and Discord members) on Wireheading. Here’s a trailer, to entice you into getting the full thing. To subsc...

Jace and Steven cover this one since Eneasz is busy drinking cocktails out of a coconut in a beach in Hawaii. Robin Hanson (probably correctly) thinks the world is going to shit (paraphrasing). He thinks that a robust check on the escalating madness out there could be a community of intellectual generalists. Is he right? Are his categories sensible? Find out as we meander through this post ! 4:24...

We beef with Wes over how important values may or may not be, and why Wireheading is awesome and/or evil. Wes is the head of The Mind Killer podcast ! 7:23  –  LW Posts discussion begins 53:39  –  Main Topic begins 2:01:40  –  Thank the Patron We also discuss Not Everthing Is a Clue and Aladdin The quokka Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Ra...

We speak to Aella about her post on Frame Control Aella’s Twitter &  LSD post National Domestic Violence Hotline The Categories Were Made For Man not visa versa SSC post Jace’s XKCD reference Shut Down The Narcissist video Gray Rock video Not Everything Is A Clue Shaping Exercises 101 Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Z...

We discuss Sasha Chapin’s “ Your Intelligent, Conscientious In-group Has Bad Social Norms Too ” Main Topic begins at 45:46 Other items mentioned: The Simple Truth – Eliezer’s short story about The Sheep Counter Keep Your Identity Small – by Paul Graham, not Hanson! Otters vs Possums – by Aella Shit Rationalists Say Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could...

We discuss the book The Procrastination Equation as summarized by Luke in How to Beat Procrastination The audio is rough at first, we fixed it after 8 minutes. Other items discussed include: Bezos in a Mecha The Goth Chicken Whether the King’s English was good enough for Jesus ? Hugh Jackman for Men vs Hugh Jackman for Women Eneasz’s next story is coming out in March Hey look, we have...

We speak with Jason Crawford (twitter) , from The Roots of Progress . Interview begins at 44:25. Posts discussed include: Iron: From mythical to mundane The various Why Did It Take So Long For (X) , and specifically Cotton Gin , Bicycle , and Threshing Machine Does invention come from deprivation or plenty? Progress studies as a moral imperative and a civic duty Support Roots of Progress here Hey...

Matt Freeman returns to talk about Decision Theory, and the discusion ranges far afield. Matt is from The Guild of the Rose , which we had a recent episode about . You can see his Decision Theory Course videos here. Scott Alexander on All Debates Are Bravery Debates Our previous Newcomb episode Our previous Torture vs Dust Specks episode The Kindness to Kin story   Hey look, we have a discord...

How Newcomb’s problem applies to real-life. We discuss Newcomblike problems are the norm ( LW crosspost ). Also mentioned: Replacing Guilt Audiobook! Our episode on Replacing Guilt Our episode on Talking To Strangers part 1 , and part 2 Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast , and  the other podcast LessWrong post...

We settle the ultimate question once and for all. also discussed: Julia Galef’s quick video on Bayesian Thinking Bulletproofing deters warlords Steven’s friend’s GoFundMe Our first and second and third episodes on cryonics. The interview with Rudi Hoffman is the third one, and he can help get you signed up at   rudihoffman.com . Also the Cryonics Institute FAQ Hey look, we have a...

We discuss You Are In Newcomb’s Box and The IQ Shredder also touched on – Why Does Singapore Have Such A Low Birthrate? Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast , and  the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: The Tragedy of Group Selectionism Fake Selfishness Next Episode’s  Sequence Posts...

We discuss The Guild of the Rose with Matt Freeman. This is somewhat of a follow-up, we first did a show about them when they were called The Guild of Servants . Join their beta ! Things we mention: Of course The Guild of the Rose , and their Patreon Matt’s 2018 appearance on our show – Freestyle Community Talk with Matt Freeman CFAR (Center For Applied Rationality) The Selfish Gene by...

We discuss the review of the book Crazy Like Us Also the highlights from the comments of the review Quick single-line spoiler for ep 3 of Loki occurs at 41:52 and lasts for ~20 seconds. Discussed in the show: The Greatest Show on Earth Old Suicide Squad Editting Fail Making Sense ep 180 – Sex and Power Very Bad Wizards ep 198 – Is Mental Illness a Myth? Wan Hu, 6th Century Rocket Chair...

We discuss Dan Sivers Do This Directives Mentioned: Dan’s interviews The Scout Mindset book Jace’s Funny Dance video An Alien God audio Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast , and  the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Fake Justification An Alien God Next Episode’s  Sequence Posts : T...

Velcro from the subreddit and discord joins us to offer a much-valued parent’s perspective on child rearing from the perspective of someone who’s actually reared children. Jace was out looking at tiny houses (it’s a thing, they’re adorable/awesome and you should google it) and was unable to make it for this episode. We’ve talked about kid/young adult things for like 2...

There’s too many clouds, and they’re ruining stuff that’s good! Mentioned in this episode: Do This. Directives. A very early episode of ours about Feelings Top ACLU lawyer comes out as pro-book-burning Replatforming? Discusses the overview of the Dean of Claremont McKenna Shares the exact wording of the email discussed above Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go w...

Running with the theme of childhood/adolescent responsibility, we start off with a brief live-feedback section from esteemed guest Charlie and then move on to discuss Johnathan Haidt and Greg Lukianov’s 2015 Atlantic essay (mostly informed by Haidt’s subsequent podcast appearances) The Coddling of the American Mind , which was turned into a book 3 years later. We didn’t quite hit...