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While European Structured Finance issuance has been strong in the first half of the year, some investors believe that deteriorating macro fundamentals and geopolitical risks are not being sufficiently priced in. We touch on the evolving European investor sentiment over the last few months, the growth of private credit markets (and increasing focus on asset-based finance), and our expectations for...

Loyalty programs have turned out to be highly profitable for airlines, as for some, they generate more cash flow than flight operations. Indeed, we believe that without a loyalty program, certain major U.S. airlines' earnings would be decidedly weaker in the current economic environment. We discuss how these loyalty programs work, their resiliency in tough times while other airline assets remain i...

Exchange traded funds (ETFs)--in particular, CLO ETFs--are providing a vehicle for retail investors to adapt to new financial innovations in capital markets, such as private credit (lending directly between a lender and a borrower) and tokenization (taking a real world asset and representing it as a "token" on a blockchain). While they offer access to parts of the capital markets that might have b...

Recent data regarding consumer credit--especially auto ABS collateral data--are showing signs of deteriorating performance. Moreover, we've seen some indication that consumer distress is spreading to higher credit score and income cohorts, despite a relatively low unemployment rate. An unforeseen increase in the unemployment rate over our base case could lead to further distress for consumers who...

We discuss the cross-sector impact of the Los Angeles wildfires on California's property insurance, housing finance, and state creditworthiness. As the wildfires are expected to result in substantial losses for insurers, we discuss how carriers are expected to raise rates and/or reduce coverage options in California and other at-risk areas; and how the FAIR Plan, an insurer of last resort, could e...

Since CLO ETFs launched in late 2020, the investing landscape has changed, as retail investors can now access securities previously available only to institutional buyers. Driven by strong investor demand, CLO ETFs have injected new liquidity into CLO primary and secondary markets. We discuss what's fueling the rise of the CLO ETF sector, its portfolio compositions and purchasing activities, and t...

We're joined by esoteric ABS credit analyst Christine Dalton to do a deep dive on the Nov. 4, 2024, downgrade of TGIF Funding LLC's series 2017-1 class A-2. We look back at the deteriorating operating performance of TGI Friday's casual dining restaurants, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, increased securitization expenses following the manager transition a (manger termination event was declared...

After two years of muted issuance, the U.S. BSL #CLO market has roared back to life, with about $165 billion in issuance to date. We're joined by CLO Sector Lead Stephen Anderberg to discuss what's driving this active market (e.g., benign credit outlook and continuing strong demand for high-quality floating-rate assets), where we think the market will end up at the end of the year, and the status...

We're joined by analyst Casper Andersen to provide updates on the Norwegian, Finnish, and Dutch covered bonds markets, and Icelandic jurisdictional support. We discuss the current housing markets and economic growth for Norway, Finland, and Netherlands and the impact on their respective covered bond markets. We also discuss issuance demand and trends in the Dutch covered bond market and revisions...

For our first episode in 2024, our host, Tom Schopflocher, is joined by Cian Chandler, S&P Global Ratings' Global Structured Finance Chief Analytical Officer, to introduce our "ABS Frontiers" article series. Throughout this year, these informative commentaries will explore sectors that are somewhat "out of the ordinary," which, in addition to being interesting and possibly not broadly understood b...

In 2022, European covered bond issuance reached levels unseen since 2011, with the French and German markets leading the way. We're joined by analysts Denitsa Carouget and Casper Andersen to discuss both of those markets. We provide overviews of both French and German covered bond markets, including relevant legal frameworks and recent market developments. We also go into how both markets are perf...

We're joined by analyst Ana Lai and co-host Jim Manzi to discuss the global office sector's uneven recovery post-pandemic. We dive into the vacancy rates in different regions around the world, pricing trends for the office sector in a higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, and office performance in relation to the CMBS market. We also discuss distributions of North American REIT debt maturi...

Analysts Daniel Hu, Rebecca Mun, and Abhijit Pawar join us to discuss U.S. and European BSL CLOs. First, we give a recap of a CLO panel at a recent S&P Global Ratings-hosted European Structured Finance conference, "Navigating Challenges; Seeking Opportunities," where amendments and extensions were a focus. We then deep dive into a comparative overview of U.S. and European BSL CLOs, going into spec...

On July 28, 2023, S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'AAA (sf)' rating to the class A notes of Anyihua 2023 Phase III Personal Consumption Loan Asset Backed Securities, the first 'AAA (sf)' rating assigned by an international ratings agency to a securitization transaction in China backed by consumer finance assets. Analyst Andrea Lin joins up to discuss the analysis that went behind rating this trans...

We're joined by credit analysts Casper Andersen to discuss how covered bonds could ease the pain in European commercial real estate (CRE), which has been struggling with inflation and rising interest rates. First, we go into the price trends of different CRE segments. We touch on covered bond rating performance. Finally, we talk about the potential for covered bond funding, which varies significan...

We're joined by credit analysts Andrew South and Casper Andersen to discuss covered bonds in Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Sweden has been experiencing rapidly rising consumer prices at a rate not seen in decades. Norway and Finland have been facing rising interest rates, which has had a dampening effect on property price. We talk about how the covered bond markets in all three jurisdictions have b...

We're joined by credit analysts Dev Vithani, Joshua Saunders, and Maxime Pontois to discuss some of the alternative financing arrangements that are on an uptick in the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) sectors in U.S. and EMEA and how they support issuance growth. We also discuss the impact of the recent events in the banking sector on the U.S. and EMEA ABCP markets. And finally, we go into our...

We're joined by CLO Sector Lead Stephen Anderberg and credit analyst Daniel Hu to discuss how rising U.S. broadly syndicated loan (BSL) CLO 'CCC' baskets could affect junior overcollateralization (O/C) test cushions. We detail how the mechanics of CLO O/C tests work and why the tests themselves matter. Then we deep dive into the scenario analysis we undertook to look at how the junior O/C test cus...

We're joined by Mathias Herzog to discuss how the risk for the commercial real estate (CRE) loans we monitor in European CMBS has shifted to refinancing risk from term risk due to rising interest rates. We touch on default and refinancing risk on some of the loans in our surveillance book that are about to mature, as well as what would happen if a loan defaulted. We also break down the performance...

Our host, Tom Schopflocher, is joined by Hong Kong-based lead analyst Andrea Lin to discuss our 2023 securitization outlook for China. We begin by recapping the broad Structured Finance issuance trends we are seeing in China and what's driving them. We then go into detail on issuance trends in specific asset classes, such as RMBS, auto ABS, and consumer loan ABS.

Our host, Tom Schopflocher, is joined by U.S. RMBS Sector Lead Jeremy Schneider discuss our 2023 U.S. residential mortgage and housing outlook. With the U.S. housing and mortgage market slowdowns expected to continue in 2023, we dig into some historical perspectives that are comparable to our current economic situation for clues on how home prices may behave this year at the national and regional...

Our hosts Tom Schopflocher and James Manzi get together to discuss our 2023 global structured finance outlook. Global structured finance issuance fell about 29% in 2022, and the declines were generally uniform in the largest global markets as high inflation, volatile interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty kept issuers on the sidelines. We expect these conditions to continue to hamper issuanc...

Expanding on our covered bond market coverage, Casper Andersen joins us to provide some insights into the Danish and German markets, which are the largest and second-largest in Europe, respectively. We give an overview of each market's adopted legal frameworks, key characteristics, and collateral securing their covered pools. We also discuss how inflation and mortgage markets affect these covered...

We're joined by Structured Finance analyst Christine Dalton, who gives her insights into the overall U.S. whole business securitization (WBS) sector, and by Corporates analyst Sarah Wyeth, who goes in depth on quick-service restaurants (which make up approximately 75% of our outstanding rated WBS transactions). We discuss some notable trends and potential credit events that we're monitoring in the...

We're joined by our CLO team members Stephen Anderberg, Catherine Rautenkranz, William Sweatt, and Jeffrey Burton to discuss the evolving nature of U.S. CLO document provisions. A number of the recent developments in indenture provisions are geared towards increasing CLO manager flexibility, while others are responses to market and regulatory changes. We do a deep dive on these key changes and how...