Street Signals

Last week's emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model promising transformative cost savings and strong performance relative to other large language models, posed a wide array of long-term questions. Does DeepSeek's emergence represent a game-changer for the industry? What geopolitical implications might it have? And, how impregnable are the moats around the existing, large competitors in the IT ec...

A tricky few weeks in markets are putting several of the consensus trades to the sword. As investors grapple with mixed signals and increasing bifurcation within the global economic outlook, politics and an emerging AI arms race are becoming more prominent in driving day-to-day shifts in returns and sentiment, making the long view all the more important. In this special roundtable edition of the p...

On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of the new Trump administration speak to extended deficits and higher debt levels, bringing with them the prospect for a return of above-target inflation in the form of potential tariffs and reduced labor supply. Expectations for Federal Reserve activit...

Two weeks into the New Year, the economic and market outlook for 2025 is marked by uncertainty. Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, joins the podcast to offer his perspective at this critical moment. Ron and host Tim Graf walk through the uncertainties and interdependencies arising from geopolitics, US trade and immigration policy, and global fiscal policy. Discussions of the rel...

The current market consensus sees equities higher, led by continued strength in the tech sector, interest rates staying at current, high levels or even rising further, and a stronger US dollar. But many of these views are already crowded and valuation challenges abound. On this week’s episode, host Tim Graf looks at where the behavioral and fundamental realities available from our proprietar...

Just before Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our...

This week, we recap the year just gone in macro markets, and get a preview of what’s to come in 2025, in a conversation with traders from the FX desk of State Street Global Markets in Boston. Bill Walsh, head of trading for the Americas, returns to Street Signals with thoughts on the developed, G10 markets, and we welcome Chris Wise, a senior Emerging Markets trader focused on Latin America,...

We head into year-end with our annual presentation of the best opportunities in markets for the New Year. Every December, members of our macro strategy team choose an idea they think has the best chance of success in the next year. Themes emerge from the commonalities and the talking points arise from the contrasts. For 2025, we actually see a more cohesive set of thoughts emerging from the proces...

After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US President, with confirmed Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress now thrown in for good measure. After seeing large re-pricings across asset classes and currencies over the last two months, how much of the news is in the price and which of the...

Bridging the gap between financial theory and investment practice has been the hallmark of research at State Street for more than 25 years. So, we are lucky to speak to a pioneer in this endeavor this week. Sébastien Page, head of Global Multi Asset and Chief Investment Officer at T. Rowe Price, joins the podcast, walking us through insights gleaned from over two decades in finance, starting with...

The votes are cast and the results from the 2024 Election are rolling in. In-house election guru Noel Dixon joins Street Signals with his initial thoughts. What were the big surprises and what went as expected? And, given what we know so far, how should we think about the implications for stocks, bonds and the US Dollar over the medium to long term? All this and more on our special election reacti...

Among all the other risks, next week’s US election and Federal Reserve meeting dominate the market outlook and look set to drive price action and volatility for the rest of 2024.  Debate is intensifying over whether the most appealing consensus views are already aligned with pricing for interest rates and FX and are now subject to disappointment. Fredrik Repton, a senior portfolio manager in fixed...

Private cryptocurrency has been around for 15 years. Institutional acceptance is here. Movement towards public, central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs), on the other hand, is proving more deliberate by design. The demand for safe, digital currencies is growing and the gains from efficiency look significant. But the accompanying risks are under-discussed. We fix that this week and speak with...

The rise of the internet 25 years ago amplified information, in the process accelerating the deterioration of institutional structures around the world. Society has so far proven resilient but our abilities to construct and sustain guiding narratives are fraying. The implications for economics, politics and even markets are and will continue to be profound. Martin Gurri, former CIA analyst, author...

Beijing's latest round of economic stimulus includes a slew of measures to reignite demand and aid in the repair of household balance sheets. So far, the announcements are bold and appear forceful, and they have sparked a surge in risk markets sensitive to Chinese demand. But will words be matched by action and will the latest efforts to kick-start the Chinese economy be effective? This week, Yuti...

Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversing nearly everywhere. As importantly, China is engaging on multiple fronts to support demand in an economy still constrained by high debt burdens. It should all add up to a great environment for risk assets, right? Maybe, but as Michael Metcalfe, Hea...

The US Presidential election is six weeks away, polls are dead-locked and the most relevant questions for markets remain open. Which electoral barometers are of greatest relevance as Election Day approaches? Where are the post-election gaps in the two candidates' policy possibilities the widest? And which markets are most underpriced for the risks those gaps entail? Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Po...

Greedflation - companies exploiting a high inflation environment to raise prices relatively more than costs - has grabbed attention and headlines in economics commentary, but the evidence to prove definitively whether it took place on a wide scale in the post-COVID period is not conclusive. This week, we chat with our academic partner Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-fo...

Experience in markets helps practitioners cope with the inevitable cyclicality of economic fundamentals and risk appetite. Combining the muscle memory of past cycles with new ideas and ways of thinking is crucial to lasting success. That's the lesson this week, as we talk to Chris Pizzotti, Global Head of FX Voice Trading at State Street Global Markets, about his formative experiences in trading a...

Markets dealt well with volatility in early August and got a boost from the Federal Reserve’s dovish message in Jackson Hole at the end of the month. But September is known for seasonal weakness and is kicking off with worries over global growth and a question of whether anticipated monetary easing is enough to sustain gains in bonds and equities. With these challenges in mind, Marija Veitmane, ou...

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts tomorrow. It takes on added significance this year, with an easing cycle seen starting next month, in the wake of softer economic data and a bout of market volatility. This year’s forum focuses on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Rising fears that the Fed is falling behind the curve and not easing q...

After a burst of volatility, markets are settling. Is the turmoil over or was it the opening episode in a destabilizing series of events? We don’t know but there are metrics we can monitor to get a better sense of how asset and currency markets will behave in the coming weeks. Street Signals host Tim Graf walks through four different themes from State Street Global Markets' suite of proprietary in...

The volatility of the last two weeks can be ascribed to many events and raises more questions than answers. Was it a clear-out of crowded positions in illiquid summer markets or the early stage of a systemic financial event? Is the US economy’s soft landing still on track? Will recent moves in equities, rates and FX now reverse or form new trends? Peter Vincent, our head trading in London, joins t...

Quiet summer markets were disrupted recently by sharp moves in equities, as the long-standing strength of IT and communication stocks gave way to a surge in valuations for smaller companies. Such price action can be healthy. But where past episodes of market rotation came in a rising market, as volatility fell, the recent rotation in stocks came with wider ranges, higher volatility and a retreat i...

Summer lulls in market activity are common, but this year's calm is unique. Interest rate, FX and volatility markets are rangebound despite jarring headlines and upheavals in politics, and the potential for binary market outcomes in response. The search for high conviction views seems more difficult than normal. That makes it a good time to get the perspective from someone with a day job of managi...