Street Signals

Currency markets can be a lot like equity markets in that over or under-valuations can stay stretched for longer than one might think possible, before mean reversion inevitably kicks in. Maintaining an effective FX process for the long-term requires special attention to these questions of fair value, while also keeping an eye on the day-to-day headlines and short-term price dislocations that offer...

Just when inflation was within striking distance of the Federal Reserves monetary policy target of 2%, allowing them to begin cutting rates last year, tariffs as a forceful policy choice of the US administration. Higher import duties have disrupted plans to ease rates and extend the soft landing of the US economy further. Tariffs also now appear to have introduced high uncertainty in the US labor...

Street Signals has had its mini-hiatus and is now back for most of the rest of the summer. This week, host Tim Graf walks through the big questions hanging over markets, some of which will need to be considered in the coming weeks, before the flip flops are put back in the closet and trading desks are back to fully staffed. We ponder what's next for equity markets, whether we'll actually start to...

The period following the Second World War is often referred to as the American Century, when the rise of the United States to global hegemon accelerated and solidified. Those who take an interest in the global political economy are starting to wonder if that era is coming to a close. But the volatility of US policy in recent years, as much as it has given rise to questions over whether this period...

The calm after the storm of April's volatility has been maintained, despite a massive fiscal expansion passing through Congress and being signed by the President, and the end of the deferral period for most of the tariffs initially announced at the start of Q2. As we await the economic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill and the onset of significantly higher tariffs on most of the US' trading pa...

In this 100th episode of Street Signals, a theme ever-present throughout its two-year history comes to the fore once again: the ability of financial markets to come to grips with and move past seemingly implacable uncertainty. Q2 2025 alone provided what felt like a decade's worth of seismic and (theoretically) negative shocks to sentiment, yet equity markets have recovered quickly and are poised...

Markets are still grappling with global trade and fiscal policies in flux and we were reminded this week that geopolitical risk is never out of the frame for too long. The broadening of hostilities in Israel and Iran necessarily extends the vigilance of policymakers for first and second order impacts on their economies, carrying with it potential implications for currency and interest rate markets...

Coming to you from our London Research Retreat, this week's episode of Street Signals explores the ongoing fragmentation in the global political economy and its implications for asset managers and asset owners. In a panel discussion with host Tim Graf, guests Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, and Ramu Thiagarajan, head of Thought Leadership at State Stre...

Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 can still only be judged through a glass darkly.  Indigestion of expanded supply in global fixed income markets similarly clouds the appeal of risky assets. Which makes the resilience of equity markets, and particularly the reversal in US stocks b...

The near-constant fluctuation of tariff rates and their implementation dates has rendered economic forecasting an exercise in futility, at both the macro and micro level. But when supply chain disruptions loom, it’s best to hear from Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves , a provider of near real-time data and analysis on all phases of delivery in the global goods economy. From conta...

Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors , joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold over the past three years. From inflation fears to geopolitical risk, gold has reclaimed its shine as both a safe haven and strategic asset. Robin explains how central bank buying, ETF flows, and shifting investor sentiment are shaping the gold market...

This week, we take Street Signals on the road. As we travel through four countries in the Middle East, Dale Haver, Global Head of FX Sales at State Street Markets, joins us for a quick but expansive chat on FX markets past and present. We talk through the most impactful evolutions in the client experience over a long career in currencies, as well as what's on the horizon. Current markets are never...

After an episode of extreme, headline-driven volatility in April, financial markets have shifted to docility in May. Position risks in equity and FX markets are now much reduced and, absent further clarity on US trade and fiscal policies, a wait-and-see approach is the order of the day. Fatigue has set in and, as our guest this week, Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State S...

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previous...

As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his wor...

Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bonds and currencies have run their course, or if they were preludes to upsets to come. The trade discussion is sure to roll on for the next several months and fiscal policy dynamics are likely to evolve in ways markets must consider. The key question i...

Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot...

By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of proposed tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. Of course, if the last three months are any guide, all such news on trade is subject to negotiation and compromise. Having had to deal with a barrage of ever-evolving headlines since the...

While US trade and fiscal policy dominate the popular discourse, recent developments across Asia have the potential to be every bit as consequential for FX and equity market returns. Newly announced economic measures from China’s National People’s Congress, the emergence of DeepSeek’s large language model and Japan’s policy choices carry both intra- and inter-regional impli...

The recent reversals in the US dollar, US rates and US equities have been sharp and rapid. A growing sense that not all is well with the US consumer, as well as a shift in policy prioritization, favoring fiscal consolidation now in the name of expansion later, are largely to blame. At the same time, the European policy mix is looking far more supportive of European assets and the EUR than previous...

The breakdown in communication between the US and Ukraine two weeks ago, for all the world to see, raises myriad questions, from the near-term state of the peace process in the Ukraine War, to the further-reaching framework of great power dynamics. As our guest this week details, the roles played in an emergent world order by the US, Europe, Russia and China are in flux, and we face potentially th...

Consensus trades have been put to the sword. Expectations for higher rates, a stronger US dollar, crypto currencies to the moon and especially US tech stock outperformance have all floundered on the rocks of political uncertainty, rising fears of a US growth scare and worries over both overvaluation of stocks and future investment needs for AI and other drivers of the IT story. How many of these c...

Amidst rising tensions and trade tariffs, market discussion often lands on how rising costs of US imports will affect the American consumer, the US balance of trade, inflation and what it all means for the US dollar. The perspectives of the emerging markets as targets in a potential trade war often get overlooked. With a moratorium on tariffs on Mexico due to expire next week and further duties se...

Financial markets cannot get a break from headlines. The Trump Administration is rolling out – and in some cases rolling back – trade tariffs at a frenzied pace. Negotiations over peace in Ukraine are only just beginning, with the shape of a resolution anyone’s guess. Fiscal policy is also front and center for bonds, with curbing deficits looking increasingly difficult as defense...

From interest rate cycles to equity valuations, long-term market trends follow a rhythm that shapes global macro—often in ways that aren’t immediately obvious. Add AI’s growing influence and political uncertainty, and navigating today’s landscape becomes even trickier. This week, Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe, joins the podcast to break it all down. A keen student of mar...