RenMac

RenMac discusses Nikki Haley’s prospects, Trump’s Veep-stakes, how voters are viewing an improving economy, the path of least resistance, why Tesla is starting to crack, whether homebuilders should be worried, how pockets of tech options could be concerning, and why Chinese tech sentiment may be setting up nicely.

RenMac discusses why Nikki Haley’s path to the presidency beyond NH is not a bright one, how better than expected retail sales and residential housing figures suggest a strong economic outlook, the great debate over when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates, why Fed Governor Waller is not riding the team transitory train, why the weakness in materials is good news not bad news, and why con...

RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than politics, why U.S. bonds are more bullish than elsewhere, how more states resemble IA than NH in the GOP Primary, the importance of Taiwan’s presidential election, the parallels between the 1970s and today, and SEC chair Gary Gensler’s reluctant Bitc...

RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print points to productivity gains, why 3-to-4 rate cuts are more likely than 6, how geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Taiwan could upend the 2024 economic outlook, global market breakouts, and the broadening of market gains beyond the magnificent 7.

Renmac discusses how dollar weakness contributes to global growth, the history of 8-consecutive weeks of S&P gains, the latest in the primary ballot battle, excessive inflows and the busy week/month ahead. Happy New Year.

RenMac discusses how the latest PCE print supports a March Fed cut but why it may not go as far as the market is pricing, whether animal spirits can lead to irrational exuberance, why trash is outperforming treasure, why the U.S. Supreme Court may reach a different decision than the CO Supreme Court regarding Trump’s eligibility.

RenMac discusses the escape velocity in equities, Powell’s press conference, why a March cut is looking more likely, who wore the boldest sweater on TV, why the rate of inflation is declining despite rather than b/c of the Inflation Reduction Act, the breakout in banks and REITs, and frothy animal spirits.

RenMac discusses how the latest jobs print shows a stabilizing workforce, why the disinflation process is more entrenched now, the contraction in 2-year yields and BBB spreads, how the latest Republican presidential debate did little to change the race, the link between aid to Ukraine’s border and the southern border, and why ’95 might be the best comparable for the Fed.

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why you should watch Waller, ’95 vs. ’98 debate, the proverbial “everybody” problem, the gap between strategists and the spot price, tis the seasonality, Santos precedent, and Neil riffs w/ disdain on GOP mega donors.

Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.

RenMac discusses why the latest inflation data reinforces an extended pause, the disinflation pipeline, why real yields are a good predictor of nominal rate markets, capitulation vs. correction, why overbought isn’t necessarily a bad thing, why Taiwan looms large over Biden-Xi meetings, and how Congress passed a stopgap but punted on all the difficult decisions.

RenMac discusses what Tuesday’s election results mean for next year, the Republican debates, the emergence of new third-party presidential candidates, why yields are coming down and how that is impacting equities, how the usually boring treasury auctions are becoming more interesting, why the latest unemployment report may impact the Fed by opening the door to cuts, and whether Treasury and the Fe...

RenMac discusses how the soft payroll print will impact the Fed, how the recent strikes may have impacted the data, why good things happened to housing, the anti-momentum trade heading into yearend, the importance of Nov. 17th to the gov’t shutdown, and Biden-Xi’s APEC meeting, and why Nikki Haley may have a low ceiling in the GOP primary.

RenMac discusses why Gavin Newsom is meeting with Xi Jinping, why “Mike Johnson” is a leading Google search, the momentum behind 3Q GDP, why the Fed is more forecast vs data dependent, how fiscal stimulus is likely to pressure yields, the deteriorating breadth in equities in the face of strong seasonality.

RenMac discusses Powell’s speech on the outlook, why the Fed is probably done for 2023 but why the economy is not, why builders might be a buy despite elevated rates and why gold is a sell despite high geopolitical tensions, and the latest in Jim Jordan’s ongoing fight to become Speaker of the House.

RenMac discuss the latest political drama around the House Speakership race, the prospect of an acting Speaker working with Democrats, why the upside surprise in inflation this week does not change the Fed’s near-term calculus, why it is not worth using geopolitical events as a basis for a market call, and why the rise in yields is providing an alternative to stocks.

The RenMac team discusses the upside surprise in payrolls, why the bears are grasping at straws, how the UAW strike could impact future prints, the increased yield sensitivity of sectors, how McCarthy’s ouster adds to the D.C. drama, the seasonal impact on markets, and how tactical conditions are providing an opportunity for the bulls.

The RenMac team discusses why hiking is harder for the Fed, the danger of focusing on headlines rather than data, cracks in gold, well-behaved BBB spreads, why a rally without beta is troublesome, more motion than progress on avoiding a gov’t shutdown, and the politics of replacement regarding the Senate seats for Feinstein and Menendez.

The RenMac team discusses why the gov’t shutdown could last a while, why the market reaction was more surprising than the Fed’s decision to erase cuts for next year, why the Fed is unlikely to hike in December either, why the 2-year yield and BBB spread usually respond Fed but not this time, not yet oversold in equities, close to improving seasonality, and why Trump is going to the MI and not the...

The RenMac team discusses the odds and economic impact (or lack thereof) of a gov’t shutdown, why not all inflation data is created equal, whether short-term soft-landing enthusiasm now could lead to inflationary consequences later, why reduced volatility in line with credit conditions, intra-market correlation, and the decline in Bitcoin.. Also, please join us Monday at 11am for a call with forme...

The RenMac team discusses recent polling around Biden’s age, Nikki Haley’s chances, the anecdotal wage stories, responding to capital conditions, what the firming energy story is saying, and Neil’s recession odds for next year.

Neil and Steve digest the economic data dump, why August may have been a peculiar month that understated jobs, why cyclicals are looking stronger, why the Fed may still be in the woods, the disconnect between data and voter perceptions of Bidenomics, the September UAW strike, why Mitch McConnell matters, 2024 politics and the Fed.

RenMac discusses Trump’s GA mugshot strategy, Neil’s opinion on the Indian guy and gal in the Republican primary, why Bullard sounds like Neil on the U.S. economic outlook, BBB-spreads not following the breakout script, cracks in consumer discretionary could be causing top-formations, previewing Powell at Jackson Hole, and Putin’s power move with the Prigozhin explosion.

RenMac discusses the breakout in 10-year yields, why Neil thinks the Fed is still offsides on growth, the political impact (or lack thereof) of the latest Trump indictment, first oversold S&P condition since last fall, early internal indications of an uptrends, and the early expansion in the put/call ratio.

Neil and Steve discuss the Biden administration’s actions towards China, how the Fed might be getting sucked into the soft-landing story, and whether the Fed still has more work to do in the context of an above-trend growth economy.