RenMac

RenMac breaks down the sharp reversal in AI stocks, why the Mag Seven are losing their grip on market leadership, and how 777 advancing stocks in the Russell 1000 signal a rotation into defensives despite weakness in the broader index. The team also discusses why real yields above 2% are favoring staples, utilities, and healthcare, widening BB credit spreads and the growing appeal of bonds, why th...

RenMac breaks down why Thursday's tech wipeout looks like forced liquidation rather than a bottom, with semis and hardware stuck at 20-day lows, shorts covered but not yet reloaded, and credit stress creeping up the quality ladder.  The team also discusses why a Fed likely on hold in October still points to a December hike, Charlie Cook's midterm map, a cautious consumer facing high mortga...

RenMac breaks down another round of troubling inflation data and why the Fed’s reluctance to hike in October likely cements action in December. The team examines why improving market breadth may be misleading as defensive stocks lead, growing stress in credit markets, and how rising living costs and geopolitical risks could shape the midterms and markets.

Ramp's Ara Kharazian joins RenMac to unpack what actual corporate spending data reveals about the AI boom, including why 1% of companies account for 80% of enterprise AI spending and why rising usage isn't translating into higher spending or broad productivity gains. The team discusses evidence that intensive AI adopters are growing employment rather than replacing workers, how competition...

RenMac breaks down a softer payroll report that reins in Fed hike expectations even as inflation remains the bigger hurdle for policymakers. The team discusses why higher real rates are beginning to show up in credit, weakness beneath the equity averages, the shift from TINA to TARA as bonds compete with stocks again, and why stretched bullish sentiment has Jeff growing a little cautious.

RenMac breaks down the breakout in long-end Treasury yields, why tighter monetary policy rather than fiscal concerns may be driving the move, and how higher real rates are beginning to bite. The team also discusses widening CCC spreads and signs of stress at the lowest end of credit, why the Fed’s former doves are turning more hawkish with additional hikes ahead, the growing disconnect between res...

RenMac breaks down the Fed’s unanimous rate hike, why Kevin Warsh’s first move suggests the tightening cycle may have further to run, and what increasingly restrictive real rates could mean for markets and the economy. The team discusses a resilient consumer facing mounting pressure from higher food, energy and borrowing costs, the continued unwind in tech and momentum, and why 5% Treasury yields...

RenMac breaks down stubborn inflation and why the Fed may be forced to hike as higher real yields reshape markets beneath the surface. The team discusses weakening momentum and the rotation out of tech, opportunities in TIPS, escalating Middle East energy risks, and why the recent momentum crash may be entering a critical “separation” phase that reveals the market’s next leaders.

Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen rejoins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, why oil prices have remained surprisingly contained, and how the conflict is testing U.S. military capacity and strategic credibility. The team explores the intensifying competition with China over critical minerals, AI and compute, the growing politica...

RenMac is joined this week by Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist and co-host of The Market Huddle podcast to discuss why the Fed has run out of room to move before the midterms and what that means for bonds, gold, and the AI trade. The team explores why rising yields are a rational response to global deficits and the largest infrastructure build-out since the 1850s, why the People's Bank...

RenMac breaks down Treasury's move to double its long-end liquidity support ops to $4 billion, its turn from plumbing to arguing yields don't reflect fundamentals and how bill-funding those buys lands them on the Fed's sheet. The team also discusses why a 53-year high in capex intentions is credit-financed capacity that looks like growth until the cost of capital reprices, Oracle and N...

RenMac breaks down a July inflation picture that isn't cooperating (softer CPI, firmer PPI, and core PCE annualizing near 2.5%), and why the bond market is under-pricing the risk of a September hike. The team also discusses slowing consumer spending after a weak retail sales print, a tape where the trend holds in the face of the momentum unwind and the Leopold rebound, the Credit Card Competit...

Former CEA Chair and Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Steve Miran joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss why he sees potential growth running closer to 3% than 2% — on tax incentives, deregulation, and AI — and why a data-dependent Fed is "momentum trading" monetary policy rather than forecasting inflation a year out. The team breaks down AI capex draining tech free cash flow, the Wa...

Boucher fills in for Dutt, hosting an especially off-script edition of RenMac Off-Script, covering the biggest earnings and macro week of the summer, headlined by Kevin Warsh's dovish Fed hold. Neil Dutta argues the move reeks of a credibility problem that leaves the chair looking weak, with the long end selling off and a September hike increasingly likely as inflation—not growth—owns the Fed&...

RenMac breaks down the case for a Fed hike next week — Neil Dutta's "Why Not Now?" call, with September already priced at 100% — as AI capex, rising oil, and tariffs push inflation the wrong way and Warsh weighs moving in his honeymoon. The team also discusses the momentum crash and why the bounce is better sold than endorsed, real yields zapping gold and duration, $100 oil as the Ir...

RenMac breaks down the vicious unwind in the momentum trade, why a low headline VIX is masking the highest single-stock dispersion the team has ever measured, and how a cooler CPI print does little to stop the Fed conversation from tilting toward a September hike, with inflation, not growth, now owning the reaction function. The team also discusses rising Strait of Hormuz tensions and elevated oil...

Big Technology podcast host Alex Kantrowitz joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss whether the AI buildout has quietly become the load-bearing pillar of the U.S. economy and what breaks if it stalls. The team breaks down why the compute crunch is separating clear winners from losers, why the semiconductor tape is flashing classic top-of-cycle signals, and why the productivity boom needed to j...

RenMac is joined by banking and payments veteran Howard Mason and digs into a soft payroll report, Chair Warsh's price-stability regime shift, and firming real rates. The team questions how the Fed actually delivers on price stability while hawks fill the vacuum, and turns to a market cycle clock stuck in its worst zone, thinning semiconductor leadership, embers of private credit stress, the y...

RenMac breaks down a hawkish shift from the Fed and why higher real yields are reshaping market leadership beneath the surface. The team discusses Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's economic agenda, the rotation away from the Mag 7, mounting stress in private credit, the outlook for Iran and oil prices, and why improving market breadth is encouraging—but not yet an all-clear signal

RenMac breaks down new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting — the most hawkish FOMC outcome on record by the move in the two-year yield — why falling oil won't pull the Fed off its tightening bias, and how rate hikes are now on the table as soon as July. The team also discusses the fragile Iran settlement, a firmer dollar, the Defense Production Act's reach into non-defense names, US-...

RenMac breaks down the SpaceX IPO frenzy, why history suggests caution around the most anticipated market debuts, and how stronger inflation and labor data are shifting the Fed conversation toward a more hawkish stance. The team also discusses private credit liquidity concerns, rising real rates, the Iran outlook, and whether market leadership is finally broadening beyond a handful of crowded trad...

RenMac small cap strategist Kevin Dempter joins Off-Script to discuss what's driving small cap outperformance since Liberation Day and whether the run has room to go. The team digs into the technical setup in regionals and biotech as potential breakout catalysts, the SpaceX IPO mechanics and where retail may get trapped, and how to distinguish a durable market super cycle from a dangerous earn...

RenMac discusses the equity markets at all-time highs as signs of late-cycle stress accumulate beneath the surface and capital chases the parabola in tech. The team breaks down the historic tech-vs-healthcare disparity in their SERM excess-return model, the tops forming in payments, financials, and crypto, and the Bermuda Triangle of private credit, life insurance, and reinsurance that could becom...

Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset manager Grayscale Investments, joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the Clarity Act's path through Congress and how stablecoins are challenging banks' monopoly on digital payments. The team also digs into the AI boom's underappreciated reach across the U.S. economy, the breakout in real yields, narrowing market breadth, the Fed's...

RenMac welcomes Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Global Macro Ozan Tarman for a deep dive on rising yields, “warflation,” and whether the bond vigilantes are back. The team debates whether the move above 4.50% in the 10-year marks a regime shift, why AI is still carrying equities despite mounting macro stress, and how Iran, Taiwan, and Trump’s China trip are reshaping global markets. They also unpack K...