ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS

Stocks surged as Wall Street scaled back its recession fears, the S&P 500 trading at its highest level since April 2022, by the close of trading on Tuesday July 25. "Investors have changed their outlook on the economy," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "They have made the decision that inflation is dead or dying, that there's one more final...

Stocks continued their recent upswing as investors absorbed a stream of quarterly earnings . The rally in part reflected a positive response to earnings reports from big banks like Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS). A certain “euphoria” also gripped the markets as fears of recession and inflation eased. Is this positive momentum overblown? “You have to wonder if this euphoria is enough...

US consumers are borrowing like gangbusters and spending heavily in a post-Covid world of destination travel, luxury purchases and more personal freedom. Yet there are signs consumers are also becoming tapped out as Covid savings evaporate and US household debt rises, a sum now hovering around $17 trillion. That could be a disaster for US banks, according to analyst DICK BOVE, chief financial stra...

The latest quarterly GDP, January through March, shows the US economy grew at a 2 percent annual rate driven by consumers spending at the fastest pace in nearly two years. Real personal income rose 2.4 percent quarter-over-quarter on an annual basis. Exports grew 3.5 times faster than imports. These are some highlights of a report by DICK BOVE comparing and contrasting the upsides and downsides of...

The past week has seen a series of sweeping global developments — from the military mutiny in Russia that was suddenly averted, to the historic US visit by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At the same time US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bejing with trade and mutual cooperation on the table. These major events, amidst unfolding regional drama a...

By one popular measure, the so-called M2, the US Money Supply is declining. However, by a broader count of the money in the financial system in America, known as the Odeon Cap Revised M3, the US money supply is expanding at a rapid pace, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. That's one clear reason he now sees the Fed coming back with two further interest r...

The Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation is making steady progress. US data from May showed a deceleration in price rises. The closely-watched Consumer Price Index rose 4% in May compared with a year ago, down from April’s 4.9% increase — the smallest monthly increase in more than two years, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last June, inflation peaked at 9.1%. To be sure, it...

The CONVERSATION strikes a note of incredulity with the publication of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly labor market data. The data are “total bologna,” says DICK BOVE, both erratic and hard to swallow. The establishment survey shows 339,000 jobs were “created” by the US economy, seasonally adjusted. The adjusted numbers show a whopping 930,000 jobs created. The Bureau’s household su...

The Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet. Bank assets are flat. The money supply is plunging. These are some of the negative indicators of the US financial system, according to DICK BOVE, chief financialstrategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. Some positives: A rising stock market and the latest readings from the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and the Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI),...

After 13 years at the helm of Morgan Stanley, JAMES GORMAN plans to step down as CEO within 12 months. He will remain as executive chairman. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says GORMAN'S departure is a major "blow" to Morgan Stanley. "To lose someone with his capabilities would be like JAMIE DIMON walking out of JP Morgan," says BOVE, referring...

The CONVERSATION examines the latest Empire Manufacturing Index, a measure of business activity in New York State, which is now 42 points below where it stood 12 months ago. The widely-followed index is at its lowest level since 2009, showing decreases in orders, shipments and payrolls at factories. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, in a recent note, points to the Empir...

The US Federal Reserve  raised interest rates again this month by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The widely-anticipated hike marked the tenth time the Fed has moved rates upward since March 2022, as part of its aggressive campaign to tame inflation. And while the Fed appears to be succeeding, the ripple effects have brought pain to the banking sector. Rising rates cr...

The CONVERSATION examines the sale of troubled California-based First Republic Bank to JP Morgan. The deal comes after a stormy period in the banking sector with the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature banks, a dark cloud hanging over First Republic and a brewing S&L-style crisis facing many banks. "The Federal Reserve and the FDIC just screwed smaller banks in America big time,&quot...

The CONVERSATION opens with DICK BOVE's review of the latest data from the Fed's Beige Book on economic conditions in America. BOVE concludes that all the data points to a peak in activity across many sectors. "Everything that came back was indicative of a significant slowing in the economy," says BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. Alongside a separate Fed w...

The US Fed is firing on all cylinders as its campaign to tame inflation appears to be succeeding. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, came in at five percent in March on an annual basis, down from six percent in February after peaking at nine percent. It's the smallest 12-month increase since May 2021, and comes as the Fed has raised interest rates at the most aggressive pace i...

A new study of US banks by DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, identified some ten percent as "challenged" among the selected group of banks, each with assets of over $10 billion. "The rapid shift from a recessionary environment to one heavily influenced by inflation has created serious challenges for many banks, " according to BOVE. "Banks are at...

The US Fed’s purchase of trillions of dollars in long duration securities at what is regarded as relatively low rates has had a more far-reaching impact on its book value than many may have realized, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. If the Fed’s net worth is adjusted by "marking" these securities to "market," its holdings translate into...

On Tuesday, March 28, the US Senate held hearings on the swift collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the 16th largest bank in the US. By late last year, it had assets of about $209 billion. SVB's collapse, the second largest bank failure in US history, sent shock waves through the financial system worldwide. Fears and doubt were compounded by the failures of Silvergate and Signature Banks in...

More than a week after the sudden collapse of SILICON VALLEY BANK, and the failures at SIGNATURE and SILVERGATE banks, the CONVERSATION picks up where we left off on our last Special Episode. We look at the financial wreckage of these disasters as well as the trouble at FIRST REPUBLIC BANK, and at UBS's agreement to purchase a troubled crosstown rival CREDIT SUISSE for over $3 billion. Veteran...

This Special Episode of ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS examines the series of events that led to the sudden collapse of SILICON VALLEY BANK, ranked America's 16th largest bank, as well as the demise of SILVERGATE and SIGNATURE banks. The CONVERSATION will evaluate the impact on the industry, the financial system and on the broader economy. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL CONVER...

The Fed has entered a new phase after fifteen years of Quantitative Easy (QE), or easy money. The "experiment" says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, has gone very badly wrong. In this episode, he presents the quandary for the Fed in this period of rising interest rates with short term rates now rising faster than long rates. "This is the most threatening issue in the f...

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, takes a close look at the full extent of the US Government's off-balance sheet debt. In doing so, he describes an immense financial burden, a sum as much as three to six times that of America's national debt now at $31.4 trillion. BOVE has studied the work of JAMES HAMILTON at the University of California and looked closely at other res...

The CONVERSATION begins with the markets negative response to reports by Walmart and other large US retailers showing increased belt-tightening by cash-strapped consumers. The episode also examines whether America is in a financial crisis worse than is reported by the US government. While retail giant Walmart has reported strong sales in recent years, more of the spending is being diverted to the...

From the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to DICK BOVE's comprehensive new report on the US economy, this episode of ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS is a timely analysis on some of the key happenings and events on Wall Street. "Disappointing" is how MAT VAN ALSYTNE describes the latest CPI report published this week, showing a slight overall decline in January in the yearly inflation rate to 6...

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says calculating the number of people working in America every month is a mammoth task – and it’s a task that cannot be properly done. That’s why this veteran industry analyst is skeptical of the latest jobs report for January, and of the labor numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau. The surprising report show...