ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS

Bank earnings season is well underway with DICK BOVE, the dean of bank analysts, concluding the sector’s outlook is bleak. Four of Wall Street’s premier league banks — JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America — reported on Friday. A multitude of write offs and some $2.9 billion in charges linked to the rescue of regional banks weighed heavily on results. Citigroup reported a quarterly loss...

Lies, damn lies and statistics? DICK BOVE, once again, challenges the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), this time attacking its announcement that the US economy generated 216,000 jobs in December as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. Using government data on hirings, layoffs, people quitting jobs and hourly wages, BOVE concludes December’s BLS report is widely off the mark. “We l...

All eyes are on the US Fed and Central bankers worldwide at the start of 2024. Investors are increasingly convinced this year will see a pivot to lower interest rates, and the end of money tightening. This same money tightening saw the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate reach the current 5.25% to 5.50% range. Federal Reserve posts suggest a possibility the Fed could cut interest rates as...

In our final episode of 2023, DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, explains his rationale for his upgrade of five bank stocks, from Hold to Buy: Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC ), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC ), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB ), PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC ), and Truist Financial Corp. (NYSE: TFC ). It could arguably be the handiwork of the Federal...

Is America now in recession, or within striking distance? DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, thinks so. As the US stock market skyrockets in anticipation of a series of interest rate cuts in 2024, BOVE sees huge trouble in sections of the US economy. Forget about the standard textbook definition of recession—two consecutive quarters of declining GDP—the cracks are alread...

The Annual Senate hearing on US banking was different this year, turning most of the attention to a single topic—the proposed new banking regulations that would radically reshape the industry. In years past, the committee grilled the assembled CEOs of America’s top banks on a wide range of topics, from assisting underserved communities to community development. Not this year as the leaders of eigh...

With the US economy still perked up with trillions of dollars created during the Covid-19 pandemic to stimulate the financial system, with inflation easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024, the markets are responding in kind. The S&P 500 is hot, rising 8.9% in November, investment banking is booming, and there's a feel-good nationwide ripple effect. Homeowners too, are enjoy...

US banks are staring at rising loan losses among clients in the private equity markets. These customers, operating conglomerates and other businesses, are struggling on debt repayments as higher interest rates take a toll, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, in a new report. “You’d be amazed if you subtracted the net increase in debt from the cash flow statem...

In an in-depth new report, DICK BOVE sees the makings of a US housing bust. The latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows the pace of home sales plunged to its lowest level in more than 13 years in October, with an uptick in the median home prices. High mortgage rates are cited for the tightening conditions, falling home sales and reduced inventory. BOVE looks beyond the latest m...

Inflation eased in October with consumer prices up 3.2% from a year ago,  the Labor Department reported on Tuesday November 14. That's a smaller annual increase in the consumer price index (CPI) than the month before when inflation came in at 3.7%. Inflation was flat on a monthly basis. "The markets have taken off like a rocket today under the assumption that inflation has been beaten,&qu...

US job growth cooled in October as the Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022, up from 3.8% in September. Employers added 150,000 jobs, half the September gains, and the smallest increase in jobs since June, according to the Bureau's establishment numbers. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEO...

With wars and uncertainty across the globe—and the US mired in political polarization and economic fear—the CONVERSATION casts a wide net from the US to China. China, the world's second largest economy, is showing fresh signs of weakening. The CONVERSATION asks pointed questions on the latest US economic growth numbers. US gross domestic product, surged at a 4.9% annualized pace in the third q...

The U.S. government posted a $1.7 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023, a significant 23% jump from the prior year. Revenues declined and outlays for Social Security, Medicare and record-high interest costs on the federal debt raced ahead. "Nobody in Washington is interested in controlling spending," warns DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. The Treasury Depar...

It's bank earnings seasons with the four big US banks and one investment bank having so far reported. The picture is positive as measured by earnings. But the underlying picture shows challenges for the banks from pressure to increase their equity to proposed new rules condemned by the industry. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, brings us his analysis on bank earnin...

The CONVERSATION shares some frank and timely commentary on the shocking tragedy in Israel as the world watched the deadly horror unfold. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP offers his thoughts. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, shares some personal history, and raises concerns about American leadership. "We need leaders who have a world vision,...

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, offers his case for what has driven the 10-year treasury yield to its highest level in 16 years. Borrowing costs are soaring. BOVE identifies the sharp reduction, over $1 trillion, in the US Money Supply for the rise in the 10-year yield. The US Treasury is feeling the ripple effects. “The Treasury is paying money to the Fed as it is lo...

The US economy is at a pivotal moment as the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheeting, shrinking it by 10.5 percent, of $940 billion in the past 18 months. Banks are losing deposits, money market funds are seeing outflows. This is a turning point, says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP as the economy faces heightened risks of recession. Many analysts were puzzled as...

How do we understand the latest media tour by Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, as she touts reasons to be sanguine on the state of the US economy, in particular the US consumer? Consumers are feeling better about their personal finances though negative, nonetheless, on the overall state of the US economy, she asserted in an interview. Jobs are being created more evenly across the nation, and in a...

On August 29, 2023, the three major bank regulatory agencies issued a whopping 1,087-page set of new rules and regulations for the banking industry. The rules emerged following the recent failures of three regional banks, a series of events which exposed financial vulnerabilities in the sector. After a comment period, the rules are expected to take effect in January 2024. What are the long-term im...

Many economists had widely anticipated a US and global recession for the past 12 months, a recession that never materialized. With the US Fed aggressively hiking interest rates to tamp down sky-high inflation, the view was that it would result in a sharp rise in unemployment, as well as a steady decline in economic activity. Instead, the US economy has remained resilient, inflation has declined wh...

The CONVERSATION conducts a post mortem on comments by Fed Reserve Chairman, JEROME POWELL, in his speech last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  “There is this belief that he [Powell] doesn’t believe in what he says,” says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. But he warns: “The market should not ignore him. Inflation is not beaten.” POWELL also seemed to telegraph that the c...

With markets about to parse the forthcoming speech this week of US Fed Chairman, JEROME POWELL at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, all eyes were suddenly on mortgages rates, which have hit a 23-year high on 30-year fixed loans. Home affordability in America is becoming more expensive, demand is far outpacing supply, and the funding mechanisms for home mortgages are creaking. "We're seeing a breakdo...

Investing in US bank stocks the past five years has disappointed many investors. "The result was not a random event," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, outlining three reasons why he believes the industry performed so badly relative to the market overall. The reasons include the steady climb in US interest rates as the Fed embarked on its campaign to tame...

Wall Street is paying close attention to the latest data on labor markets and inflation, as well as on wage growth and more, as the Fed weighs up its next move. For DICK BOVE, the Fed seems increasingly likely to extend its interest rate hike campaign to finally tamp down inflation closer to its target rate of 2.00 percent. BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, continues to see...

The white-hot stock market in the first half of this year, wage gains, a tight labor market, rising home prices— as well as falling inflation data—have contributed to a widespread view among many analysts that the US economy has avoided a major recession. A soft landing, if any, is now a popular narrative. But DICK BOVE is filled with conviction that our latest gains on the economy and inflation c...