Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊 A full breakdown of this week's three key US macro releases. Initial jobless claims improved to 197,000, with no sign of accelerating layoffs. 📉 Meanwhile, WTI crude plunged roughly 16% in a week. Yet retail gasoline remains 43% higher y/y, keeping energy-driven inflation risk alive. 💰 The Fed's balance sheet grew $148.4B y/y, as Treasury purchases effectively paused QT even as MBS...

📊 Breaking down the U.S. August Durable Goods report. Total new orders grew just +0.1% MoM, down from July's +0.8%, while durable goods orders turned negative at -0.1%. 📉 The main drag: nondefense aircraft orders, down -4.3%. 💡 But core capital goods orders (ex-defense, ex-aircraft)—the key business investment proxy—rose +1.6%, accelerating for a third straight month. ⚠️ Both the unfilled...

📊 The September 2026 U.S. Employment Situation report is out. Nonfarm payrolls rose just +29,000, below the 12-month trend, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. ⚠️ The bigger story: July and August were revised down a combined 60,000, and the diffusion index tumbled from 57.6 to 49.0 — a sign of broadening softness. 💡 Yet participation rose to 61.8% and wage growth cooled to a moderate 3.0% YoY...

📊 The Bank of Japan hiked rates again at its Sept 17-18 meeting — just 3 months after June's hike, a notably faster pace. 💡 Some board members now say trend inflation has "generally reached 2%," but Q2 GDP revealed negative domestic demand. ⚠️ Several members dissented, citing weak consumption — the decision was far from unanimous. 📈 The Cabinet Office requested a review of the &...

The September 2026 BOJ Tankan delivered a striking upside surprise: companies forecast a headline DI of just 11 back in June, but actual results hit 21 — a 10-point beat. 📊 Manufacturing improved across all firm sizes, while non-manufacturing stalled. Large manufacturers' FY2026 ordinary profit plan swung from -6.7% to +13.6%, a massive upward revision. 💹 Meanwhile, the borrowing rate DI ju...

Japan's Ministry of Finance released weekly capital flow data for Sep 6-12. 📊 Foreign investors sold ¥1.52tn of Japanese stocks while buying ¥2.24tn of JGBs — the second-largest bond inflow in a year. ⚠️ The pattern is a complete reversal from the prior week, and USD/JPY fell from 156 to 153.71. 💹 We break down what this contradictory flow means for yields and the yen. ▶️ Full video on YouT...

📊 Micron Technology (MU) reported fiscal Q4 2026 results. 💰 Non-GAAP EPS hit $33.42, roughly 11x the $3.03 a year ago. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% YoY. 🚀 Core Data Center revenue grew over 10x YoY, confirming intense AI memory demand. ⚠️ Cloud Memory margins slipped slightly, showing uneven benefits across segments. 📈 Guidance for next quarter points to $61.5B revenue. Durability of AI de...

🇺🇸 The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Third Estimate of Q2 2026 GDP. 📊 Real GDP was revised up to 2.2% SAAR (from 1.5%, +0.7pp). 💪 Real final sales to private domestic purchasers surged to 4.6%, showing robust underlying demand. ⚠️ Yet the PCE price index held at 5.0% (core 3.3%) — still elevated. 💡 Stronger growth and sticky inflation together complicate the Fed's path forwar...

📊 A deep dive into Japan's August 2026 Industrial Production Index (IIP), released by METI. Output fell 1.7% m/m for a 2nd straight month, though y/y growth held at +3.4%. 🚗 Automobiles plunged 6.8%, the single biggest drag on the headline number. 💡 Meanwhile, production machinery jumped 6.1% m/m and 25.0% y/y, driven by semiconductor-equipment demand. ⚠️ The inventory ratio rose for the f...

📊 A deep dive into the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August JOLTS report. Job openings fell to 7.079 million (down from a revised 7.335 million), but layoffs also eased to 1.641 million, while the quits rate held steady at 1.9%. ⚠️ The standout: small businesses (1-9 employees) saw their openings rate plunge from 6.0% to 4.3%, hinting at a shift in small-firm hiring sentiment. 💡 The labo...

📊 A deep dive into Brazil's latest Focus Market Readout from the central bank (BCB). The Selic rate-cut path to 2029 remains unchanged for a fourth straight year, with over 130 forecasters in tight agreement. 📈 Yet 2026 inflation forecasts rose for a second straight week to 4.99%, above the BCB's 4.5% tolerance ceiling. 📉 GDP growth forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 were cut for a thir...

📊 A deep dive into the BCB's latest Focus Market Readout (Sep 11, 2026). The 2026 year-end Selic forecast has held at 13.75% for six straight weeks — but the freshest 5-day data already shows 13.56%, with respondents surging from 35 to 98. 📈 IPCA forecasts are diverging: falling for 2026, rising for 2027, still above BCB's 4.5% ceiling. 💡 We break down what this means for BRL/JPY carr...

📊 Japan's METI confirmed July's Industrial Production Index at 104.4 (-0.2% MoM), revised down from a preliminary +0.1%. 💊 Pharmaceuticals and canned cocktails drove the downgrade. ⚙️ Yet production machinery, including semiconductor equipment, surged +16.4% YoY, and utilization kept rising. 📉 August plans were revised up to +6.4%, but September forecasts a -4.2% pullback. A deep dive...

This week's global data revealed a common thread: an energy-driven split between headline and core inflation. 📊 US CPI & PPI headlines accelerated while core measures cooled 📊 Japan's PPI hit +7.6% YoY but fell MoM for the first time in 11 months ⚡ ECB delivered a rare hike against a supply shock (deposit rate to 2.50%) 💰 Japan's GDP was revised up, though capex stayed negat...

Breaking down this week's 3 major US macro releases (Sep 10, 2026) 📊 Initial jobless claims held at a historically low 206,000, signaling labor market resilience 📈 But WTI crude surged over $8 in a week to $92.69, with distillate inventories 13% below the 5-year average ⚠️ The Fed's balance sheet grew year-over-year, hinting QT may be stalling 💡 Labor, energy, and liquidity data are s...

📊 The University of Michigan's preliminary September reading fell to 47.8, down 7.5% from August — a second straight monthly decline. 📉 Current conditions barely moved, but the Expectations Index plunged 11.1%. Households are more worried about the future than the present. 🔥 1-year inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%, the highest since June. ⚠️ Weakening sentiment paired with r...

📊 US CPI rose 0.4% in August, a sharp jump from July's 0.1%, driven mainly by a gasoline price surge that accounted for over a third of the monthly gain. 📉 Meanwhile, core CPI (ex food & energy) cooled to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% in July — the third straight monthly deceleration. 🏠 Shelter costs reaccelerated to 0.3% m/m, the fastest since May, keeping services inflation concerns alive. 💡 W...

Deep dive into Japan's August 2026 Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) 📊 Domestic CGPI YoY accelerated to +7.6%, near cycle highs. But the MoM print turned negative (-0.2%) for the first time in about a year ⚠️ Import prices decelerated sharply (YoY +29.1%→+24.8%) as yen appreciation and falling energy prices combined 📉. Yet metals and gold-linked categories kept rising 💹 Upstream inflation...

Deep dive into Japan's Ministry of Finance Corporate Business Sentiment Survey (BSI), Q3 FY2026 📊 Large-company sentiment BSI jumped from -0.5 to +5.3, beating the prior forecast of +4.3. Ordinary profit outlook swung from -2.4% to +2.3% YoY — a dramatic reversal 📈 But small businesses remain deeply negative at -10.9, with 16.6% citing risk of business shrinkage or exit due to labor shortag...

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) reported Q1 FY2027 earnings. 📊 Total revenue hit a record $19.3B (+30% YoY), Non-GAAP EPS reached $1.92 (+30% YoY). 📈 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue rocketed 121% YoY to $7.4B, extending triple-digit growth. RPO surged $209B YoY to $664B. ⚠️ But capital expenditures ballooned to $28.5B, pushing Free Cash Flow to negative $5.4B. We break down the GAAP and Non-GAAP numbers...

📊 A deep dive into the August 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Headline final demand PPI rose 0.4% MoM, accelerating sharply from July's 0.1%. Yet core PPI (ex-food, energy, trade services) cooled to 0.3% from 0.4%. 💡 Energy—especially a 24.1% single-month diesel spike—drove most of the headline gain. Meanwhile, Stage 1 intermediate demand ros...

Breaking down Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly international securities flow data. 📊 USD/JPY dropped from 159.97 to 156.11 in a single week — a 2.4% move. 📉 Foreign investors bought a net ¥690bn of Japanese stocks (2nd-highest in 8 weeks), and JGB buying stayed positive for a third straight week. 💹 Meanwhile, Japanese investors flipped to net selling foreign stocks (-¥481.6bn), signaling...

Deep dive into the Bank of Japan's August 2026 Money Stock preliminary report. 📊 M2 grew +2.0% YoY, M3 +1.2% YoY — both slowing for a 4th straight month. 💰 Quasi-money (time deposits) held firm at +4.4%, while M1 (settlement deposits) turned negative at -0.1%. 📈 Broadly-defined liquidity stayed high at +4.4%, driven by investment trusts (+12.0%) and foreign bonds (+7.1%). ⚠️ CDs plunged -8...

📊 A deep dive into Japan's July 2026 Monthly Labour Survey (flash estimate), published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Real wages rose +2.4% YoY, marking seven consecutive months of gains since turning positive in January 2026. 💡 Base pay (scheduled earnings) grew a robust +4.1%, reflecting strong spring wage negotiation results. ⚠️ However, a same-establishment reference mea...

📊 Japan's Ministry of Finance released July 2026 balance of payments (preliminary). The current account swung back to a ¥2.99tn surplus (+¥402.6bn YoY) from June's rare ¥92.3bn deficit — a V-shaped rebound. 💡 The engine: primary income of ¥4.29tn, i.e., returns on Japan's overseas investments. 📈 Strengths: exports up 24.1% YoY (11th straight monthly gain) led by semiconductors; s...