Nakajima Quant Desk - English

Weekly macro digest covering Jun 28–Jul 5, 2026. Key highlights: US nonfarm payrolls +57K miss, BOJ monetary base -13.7% QT acceleration, Japan Tankan business sentiment surprise vs. profit plan collapse, Eurozone HICP flash 2.8%, UK mortgage approvals at 2.5-year low, Canada GDP +0.5% rebound. Full analysis with next week's event calendar. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/bfZ_XGjmf...

This week's global macro digest covers: US June payrolls +57K (well below trend), BOJ monetary base -13.7% YoY as QT accelerates, Eurozone HICP flash drops to 2.8%, Japan Tankan beats on sentiment but profit plans collapse. Plus next week's key events calendar for investors. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/rea0mDxmTb4

A deep dive into this week's three key US macro releases: DOL jobless claims (data unavailable due to technical error), EIA weekly petroleum status, and the Fed's H.4.1 balance sheet. We use BLS employment regime anomalies as a proxy for labor market signals, examine energy-driven inflation risk (CPI gasoline +28.4% YoY), and assess Fed liquidity conditions including reserve balances, RR...

The US Census Bureau released the May 2026 full manufacturing report on July 2. While durable goods orders fell 4.5% MoM on the headline, the drop was almost entirely driven by a 51.8% plunge in nondefense aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders (ex-aircraft, ex-defense) rose 1.4%, signaling resilient business investment. We break down shipments, unfilled orders, and inventory trends to give yo...

Deep dive into the June 2026 US Employment Situation report from BLS. Nonfarm payrolls came in at +57K — a sharp deceleration from May's +129K (revised down). But strip out leisure & hospitality's seasonal drag (-61K) and the underlying picture looks more resilient: professional services +36K, health/social assistance +47K, construction +11K. Unemployment ticked down to 4.2%. Wages +...

Deep dive into the Bank of Japan's Monetary Base data for June 2026, released July 2. The headline YoY change accelerated to -13.7% from -12.2% in May. BOJ current account balances contracted -16.4% YoY — the steepest decline in this tightening cycle. We analyze what this means for JGB yields, the yen, and the pace of BOJ balance sheet normalization. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be...

Deep dive into Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly securities flow data (Jun 21-27, 2026). Foreign investors sold ¥1.82T in Japanese equities and ¥494B in long-term bonds simultaneously — a rare dual-asset selloff. We analyze the structural drivers behind this move amid USD/JPY at 161.67, and what it means for Japanese markets going forward. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/y9YVQA3Cq...

Euro area HICP flash estimate for June 2026 came in at 2.8% YoY, down sharply from 3.2% in May. The drop was largely driven by energy deceleration, but services inflation remains sticky at 3.2%. We break down all four components, analyze core inflation trends, and assess what this means for ECB rate decisions and EUR/JPY, EUR/USD. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ibiecV61hh0

Japan's Cabinet Office released the June 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey on July 1. The headline Consumer Confidence Index edged up +0.2 to 33.8, with the 3-month moving average turning positive for the first time in 4 months — yet the Cabinet Office maintained its 'weakening' assessment. The durable goods purchase timing index remains near historic lows at 24.6, while the asset val...

Deep dive into Japan's Tankan Q2 2026 (June survey). Large manufacturer DI surged to 22, crushing the prior forecast of 14. Yet FY2026 recurring profit plans collapsed -6.5% across all firms. Input price DI hit 62 (large) and 76 (SMEs), while 5-year selling price expectations jumped to 6.1%. Capex plans were sharply revised upward. We analyze what this means for BOJ rate hike timing and Japan...

Deep dive into the BLS JOLTS report for May 2026, released June 30, 2026. Job openings held at 7.6M (unchanged), quits rate stayed at 1.9% — signaling a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing. We unpack the construction layoff surge (+47K MoM), the healthcare layoff spike (+53K), wholesale trade's job openings jump (+71K), and what the V/U ratio near 1.1x means for Fed policy. Essent...

Canada's real GDP by industry rose 0.5% in April 2026, rebounding sharply from March's -0.1% contraction. Mining, quarrying & oil/gas extraction surged 2.9% — the largest monthly gain since February 2024. Construction turned positive for the first time in five months (+0.7%). 14 of 20 industrial sectors expanded. May advance estimate: +0.1%. We analyze the sector breakdown, BOC polic...

Deep dive into the RBA's June 2026 meeting minutes (released June 30). The Board unanimously held the cash rate at 4.35%, a stark contrast to May's 8-1 vote to hike. We unpack the three key debates: confirmation of restrictive conditions, Middle East risk scenarios, and persistently weak productivity. What does this mean for the next RBA move and the AUD? ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https:...

Deep dive into Australia's latest RBA Monetary Aggregates (D3) released May 2026. Broad Money surged to AUD 3,461B (+4.4% YoY), M3 hit AUD 3,447B, and M1 expanded sharply. We analyze what accelerating liquidity growth means for RBA's rate-cut cycle, AUD/USD, and Australian equities. Essential viewing for macro investors tracking the RBA policy path. #AustraliaMacro #RBA #MoneySupply #AUD...

Deep dive into Japan's May 2026 Labour Force Survey. Unemployment held at 2.5% (seasonally adjusted), with 68.9 million employed (+520K YoY). Regular employment rose for the 31st consecutive month. We analyze labor market tightness in hospitality/food services, implications for services inflation, and what this means for the BOJ's rate hike path. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.b...

Deep dive into Japan's May 2026 Industrial Production Index (preliminary). Production rose +0.5% MoM for a second consecutive month, but the inventory ratio surged +1.8% — its first rise in three months — signaling potential inventory accumulation. Transport equipment (excl. autos), petroleum, and chemicals led gains, while general-purpose machinery and electrical equipment dragged. We analyz...

Deep dive into Brazil's BCB Focus Market Readout dated June 26, 2026. Over 130 market participants now see the Selic rate ending 2028 at 10.50% — a hawkish revision — while 2026 IPCA inflation holds stubbornly at 5.33%, well above the 3.0% target. We analyze the rate cut path, BRL/JPY carry trade dynamics, fiscal deficit risks, and what this means for Japanese investors holding Brazilian asse...

Deep dive into the Bank of England's Money and Credit release for May 2026 (published June 29, 2026). Mortgage approvals plunged to 56,200 — the lowest since December 2023. M4Lex net lending collapsed to just £0.6bn from £11.5bn in April. Yet broad money M4ex expanded to £11.0bn and consumer credit annual growth ticked up to 8.9%. We unpack the divergence between money supply and credit deman...

Euro Area ESI rose +1.3pts to 95.0 in June 2026, but the Employment Expectations Index (EEI) plunged -2.2pts to 92.2. Meanwhile, PPI surged to +4.9% YoY in April. We break down what this divergence means for ECB policy and EUR/JPY for Japanese investors holding euro-denominated assets. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/XpQBAP0MHrY

Euro area M3 money supply rebounded to 3.2% YoY in May 2026, up from 2.7% in April. Corporate loans surged to 4.0% — a potential signal that ECB rate cuts are gaining traction. Investment fund deposits staged a dramatic recovery from -5.8% to -0.4%. We break down what this means for ECB policy and EUR/JPY traders. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/mk53R46q41U

Weekly macro digest for Jun 21-28, 2026. US PCE re-accelerated to 4.1% (core 3.4%), BOJ hiked rates with one dissent, Brazil's Selic reached 14%, Canada CPI hit 3.2%, Australia's trimmed mean CPI accelerated to 3.6%, and Sweden's Riksbank shifted hawkish unanimously. A week of synchronized global inflation resurgence and central bank tightening. Includes next week's key event c...