Manifold

Are we in an AI bubble?  Steve reviews analysis on CapEx, AI revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $trillions per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation.  Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT could still...

Brian Chau is a mathematician, machine learning specialist, and the founder of Effort News, an independent media outlet focused on data-first, document-led investigative journalism. https://www.effort.news/ https://x.com/brianchau57 Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Intro (03:14) - Network School Fallout (14:17) - Effort News Origins (17:24) - AI Reporting Workflow (35:41) - Medicare Medicaid Momentum (3...

Machine God is a feature-length AI documentary film, created by Steve Hsu, John Greer, and Lei Huang. This episode discusses the film's creation and content. Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Meet the Filmmakers (02:06) - Berkeley AI Boomtown Origins (19:23) - Techno Capital and the Pause Plea (38:55) - Why Slow Down AI (41:40) - Recursive Self Improvement (46:01) - Gradual Disempowerment (51:48) - Film...

Dr. Thomas Fink is an Anglo-American physicist, author, and entrepreneur who serves as the founding Director of the London Institute for Mathematical Sciences (LIMS). He studied physics at Caltech, where he won the Fisher Prize, and earned his PhD at Cambridge University. His research focuses on statistical physics, combinatorics, and evolvable systems, using these tools to gain insights into phys...

Bohan Lou is a partner at Chemistry Ventures, based in SF. https://x.com/loubohan Bohan's report on the venture ecosystem in China: https://x.com/loubohan/status/2082143914924851449 Chapter Markers: (01:42) - Venture Capital in China; Bohan’s Shanghai Roots (11:15) - Chemistry Fund and China Investing (20:04) - China Trip and Venture Reality Check (32:18) - Pressure Cooker: Founder Exits and Finan...

This is a crossover episode with Alf Beckinsale, an Oxford University student who hosts the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. The main topics are the US-Iran conflict, geopolitics, and US-China AI competition. Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Introduction (02:33) - No Off Ramp in Gulf (04:11) - Missile Stockpile Crisis (06:46) - Oil Shock and Reserves (14:07) - Israel Stays Out (29:34) - China Frontier...

Steve discusses the state of AI in summer 2026. Topics covered include: AI in math and theoretical physics, Recursive Self-Improvement, Agent swarms and tokenomics, IPOs and US-China competition, documentary film Machine God. Machine God trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RSv3wmDIpY Theoretical Physics with Generative AI: https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/theoretical-physics-with-generative C...

Beff Jezos (Guillaume Verdon) is a Canadian physicist, quantum computing researcher, and tech entrepreneur. He is best known as the founder of the Effective Accelerationism (e/acc) movement. This interview was recorded in collaboration with John Greer and Lei Huang for the documentary film Machine God. John Greer: https://www.johncgreer.com/ Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Meet Beff Jezos (01:56) - Hyp...

This episode was recorded live at Manifest 2026. Razib Khan is a prominent writer, population geneticist, and podcaster. He is best known for his extensive deep-dives into human evolutionary history, consumer genomics, culture, and ancient DNA.  https://x.com/razibkhan https://x.com/razibkhan?lang=en Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Razib Khan at Manifest 2026: Genetic Discoveries, AI, and Academia (01:...

This special episode was recorded at Tsinghua University in Beijing, generally regarded as the top university in China. Our guests are 3 Americans studying and working at Tsinghua: Gabriel (undergrad), Justin (PhD student in AI), and Alex (Professor in AI research). Topics discussed include: Tsinghua University and elite human capital, AI in China, US-China competition, and the flow of human capit...

Jaan Tallinn is a tech billionaire and founding engineer of Skype who leverages his wealth to mitigate existential risks from artificial general intelligence (AGI). He co-founded the Future of Life Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, while making early foundational investments in frontier AI labs like DeepMind andAnthropic. Chapter Markers: 00:00 Assessing Current AI Risk L...

Dr. Alex Young, a statistical geneticist and assistant professor in the Human Genetics department at UCLA, joins Steve Hsu to discuss the cutting edge of genomic prediction. They cover his research on polygenic embryo screening in IVF (including the ImputePGTA method), family-based DNA analysis, missing heritability, and the implications of polygenic scores for traits like education and disease. A...

Steve and Alf discuss the Iran War, emphasizing what it reveals about modern missile and anti-missile technology, drones, and the implications for a US-China conflict in the Western Pacific. Links: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/ Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Missile War Reality Check (01:49) - How the War Started (04:46) - Iran Outperforms Expectations (06:22) - Why Missile Defense Fails...

Richard Ngo is an independent AI researcher and philosopher known for his work on AGI safety and alignment. He recently resigned from OpenAI, where he was a member of the Governance team focused on forecasting the capabilities and risks of advanced AI systems. His debut fiction collection is titled "The Gentle Romance: Stories of AI and Humanity", published in December 2025. The book features 22 s...

Matt Southey is an editor for an AI safety organization. He wrote his PhD dissertation on the philosophy of Nick Land. Matt's "A Brief History of Accelerationism" can be found here , and he recommends the second chapter of Crypto-Current as a good introduction to Land's usage of Kant. He and Steve discuss Accelerationism, AI, and Steve's recent meeting with Land in Shanghai. Chapter Markers: (00:0...

Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO of Snowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies. Taylor on X: https://x.com/TaylorOgan Previous episodes with Taylor: https://youtu.be/iehHON07UHI?si=h2c3po5AX9Z9ANaK   https://youtu.be/fmjR3me5s_Q?si=sPsMFOdKebEOZXQr (00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan (00:53) - Meeting in Sh...

This is the second episode of our series based on interviews for the documentary film, Dreamers and Doomers, about the SF Bay Area in the last days before AGI.  Steve interviews Jesse Hoogland, co-founder and executive director of Timaeus , an AI safety research org working on applications of Singular Learning Theory (SLT) for AI safety . SLT establishes a connection between the geometry of the lo...

Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher, entrepreneur, and the co-founder of AGI House, a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math, Computer Science, and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain. This footage was shot for a documentary project, "Dreamers and Doomers," about the SF Bay Area and t...

Links: Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future https://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034 Dan's 2025 annual letter https://danwang.co/2025-letter/ Related episodes: Jian Lian on Industrial Maximalism, Manifold Episode #99 https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/jian-lian-on-chinas-industrial-policy-and-global-strategy-99 (00:00) - Introduction and Welcome (02:14...

Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026. Links: Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijing https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72 Previous crossover episodes: Weeks Where Decades Happen https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happen AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics https://www....

This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond. Links: Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078 My talk from...

All but the last 20 minutes of this episode should be comprehensible to non-physicists. Steve explains where frontier AI models are in understanding frontier theoretical physics. The best analogy is to a “brilliant but unreliable genius colleague”! He describes a specific example: the use of AI in recent research in quantum field theory (Tomonaga-Schwinger integrability conditions applied to state...

Murtaza Hussain is a reporter for Drop Site News, which has broken important stories based on recently obtained Epstein emails. Hussain reports that Epstein had an “extensive relationship with Israeli intelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of other countries, as well... He was a dealmaker and a fixer at a very, very elite level.” Links: Drop Site News series on Epstein and I...

Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author o...

Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term. Scott’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Provoked-Washington-Started-Catastroph...