Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German Wargame

What happens when a looming escalation suddenly becomes reality? In our wargame, Russian troops have entered southern Lithuania, blocking the only land corridor connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO territory. Berlin responds, seeking to keep the state functioning. But its measures are aimed primarily at maintaining stability at home rather than confronting Moscow. In Episode 3 of "Erns...

In Episode 2, Germany’s crisis cabinet tries to move from reacting to taking the initiative. The Blue Team orders military exercises in Lithuania to demonstrate resolve. But the Bundeswehr is still in the process of building up its permanent brigade there. At the same time, the German government runs into another obstacle: Germany’s federal system requires constant coordination between Berlin and...

Imagine this: It is October 2026. The day has barely begun when Germany’s federal government is confronted with its gravest security crisis in decades. In a fictional scenario, Russia is threatening NATO’s eastern flank while the United States is reluctant to become involved. To understand how Germany would respond under these conditions, WELT, together with the German Wargaming Center at Helmut S...

What if Russia attacked NATO? How would Germany respond? And where are our weaknesses? We wanted answers. In a wargame, we simulate an attack on NATO’s eastern flank. Politicians, former military officials, and experts take on the roles of the German government for a day. A second team plays the Kremlin. The wargame triggered an international debate. It's the reason we decided to publish our resul...