Confluence Podcasts

Late arriving economic reports have delivered mixed results on the health of the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss takeaways for investors.

Social Security has been, over the years, a slowly expanding support prop for the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact of the Social Security cost of living adjustment for 2026.

The policies of the new Japanese prime minister may provide a boost for Japanese stocks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what the election of Sanae Takaichi means for investors.

In this episode, Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller unpack the concept of escalation dominance in the US-China relationship and how societies endure pain. They consider the likelihood and potential depth of recession, examining the trade-offs that arise when the Fed and other policymakers intervene to prevent downturns and identifying areas of malinvestment in today’s markets. Additional topics include...

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings...

Consumer debt levels are heading higher. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss if this trend threatens to derail the economy and infect the markets.

China's advantage over the United States in key military and economic areas appears to be widening this year. It's possible to see that in the way trade talks have evolved, and that leaves investors with some important choices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to bring investors up to date.

The surging price of gold and rising stock indices seems to be an unlikely pairing. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this might constitute a pivot point for the markets and for investors.

Why did The US offer a $20 billion bailout to Argentina? Are there clear cut takeaways for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to tackle these questions.

In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, delve into the connection between US dollar weakness and the performance of international and domestic equities. They also share their outlook for recession risks, Fed independence, and Trump's call for publicly traded companies to shift to semiannual rather than quarterly reporting. Su...

AI related investments have generated impressive results, but a look at how the big tech firms are channeling their current AI expenditures suggests it might be time for investors to put on the brakes at least a little. Confluence Associate Market Analyst and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why.

Recent events offer new evidence that US influence around the world is diminishing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss the evidence and how investment strategy might adjust to acknowledge this new geopolitical reality. 

With deficits rising, governments may resort to different strategies to help keep interest rates in check. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash examines the landscape for government bonds and the message markets are sending to investors. 

The race for global AI dominance has crucial implications for governments and financial markets. Much like Sputnik, this isn't just about a single technological achievement. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how the future of the global order is at stake and offers some guidelines for investors.

Your investment in the S&P 500 might not be as diversified as you think. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to explore the distinctions between investing in cap-weighted and equal-weighted indexes and offer considerations for investors to assess if now might be time to adjust their approach. 

Are tariffs working the way the Trump planned? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to focus on the purpose of the Trump tariffs and discuss what investors should pay attention to in the weeks and months ahead.

In our August Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, examine the recent underperformance of small caps and emphasize the importance of focusing on quality companies. They review shifts in Confluence’s asset allocation models amid abrupt policy changes and share key lessons learned. Bill and Mark also consider the outlook for stablecoins, the decline i...

Can we rely on government statistics to help guide our investment decisions? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss the recent revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics data that raised doubts about the economy and prompted the president to fire a top official.

The race between the United States and China for military superiority might be a lot more complicated and worrisome than the headline numbers suggest. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler with an update on US and Chinese defense spending and why it matters for investors.

Are investors right to downplay the risk of recession? It certainly looks like the markets have been acting that way this year. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler on this day in early August to discuss whether we might have less to fear than we traditionally have assumed.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

This year's turmoil in the Middle East appears to strengthen the case for investment strategies that Confluence Investment Management has maintained over recent months. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss implications of the Israel-Iran conflict.

The US Treasury is looking for answers as it eyes higher interest rates in an environment of uncertain demand for rising US debt. Confluence Associate Market Analyst and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why stablecoins, a cryptocurrency, may be a partial solution.

In this Mid-Year 2025 report subtitled "Searching for the Endgames," Confluence analysts join Phil Adler to take a fresh look at key geopolitical trends and identify potential opportunities for investors.

In this month’s episode, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, share their market outlooks and what they view as the biggest threat to the markets over the next three years. They also address whether shifting government policies influence Confluence’s investment process, what tariffs mean for Wall Street, the economic impact of birth rates and immigration, an...