Carnegie Connects

Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive has perhaps unfairly left some Western policy circles disappointed. Nonetheless, the war continues seemingly with no end in sight. What are the most realistic options for Kyiv to make headway against Russia? Has the Biden administration been too risk averse in its provision of military assistance, and what kind of advanced weapons systems supplied to Ukraine migh...

Uncertainties abound as Ukraine begins its much-anticipated counter-offensive. Will it change the trajectory of the war or represent simply another phase in a lengthy stalemate? Meanwhile, next month’s NATO summit will mandate some tough choices about the war, Ukraine’s potential membership, and the unity of the alliance. To what extent will domestic politics in Washington, Moscow, Kyiv and key Eu...

The Palestinian national movement is in crisis. Divided between a Hamas-controlled Gaza and a Palestinian Authority that has lost credibility with the West Bank population it partially controls, the movement lacks not only cohesion but an effective strategy to bring about an end to Israeli occupation. Confronted by Israel's most right-wing fundamentalist government, which is committed to maintaini...

As Israel turns seventy-five, protests opposing the Netanyahu government's effort to overhaul and weaken Israel's judiciary enter their twentieth week, Israel confronts unprecedented internal challenges as Israeli-Palestinian clashes in Gaza and the West Bank intensify, and Iran's nuclear program continues unconstrained. What lies ahead for Israel and the Middle East at this critical moment? Aaron...

Can humanity compete in the critical race against climate change, or are we destined to succumb to a world of extreme heat, flooding, drought, and irrevocable damage to the planet’s seas and biosphere? The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that time is running out but holds out hope of averting the worst. Will UN efforts like COP summits succeed soon enough? If not, who or wha...

Well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Biden cast the main dynamic of the 21st century as a struggle between the forces of democracy and autocracy. Putin’s aggression seemed to tether Biden’s rhetoric to the bloody reality of the most serious crisis in Europe since the end of the cold war. But with two thirds of the world’s population residing in countries that have not signed on to p...

America’s foreign policy challenges abound. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has evolved into a seemingly endless war of attrition in which neither side appears poised to win decisively. Relations between the United States and China are at their worst in decades with little discernible pathway to a more productive relationship. North Korea flexes its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities while Ir...

Wars evolve in one of two ways—one side decisively defeats the other, or both sides, realizing that total victory is unattainable, compromise on a temporary or permanent deal to end the fighting. In Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, neither scenario is currently in play as Moscow and Kyiv plan fresh offensives and counteroffensives in 2023 along the 600-mile battlefront. How are Putin and Zelen...

As the war in Ukraine nears its one-year anniversary, the coming months could prove decisive in a conflict that has become a war of attrition. The possibility of any negotiation in the near future appears dim as rumors spread of massive Russian and Ukrainian offensives. Kyiv and its Western partners are scrambling to bolster the Ukrainian military with tanks, air defense, and other capabilities. H...

The inauguration of the most right-wing fundamentalist government in Israel’s history poses unprecedented and extraordinary challenges. Just the other week, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government introduced new legislation that would weaken the judiciary’s independence.  Meanwhile, the new government‘s hardline policies toward the Palestinians have the potential to jeopardize its relationships with...

Russia’s war against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. Almost a year into the conflict, one of the most intriguing questions is how Russia’s economy has managed to stave off a destabilizing economic crisis in the face of unprecedented economic sanctions. How has the Russian economy survived? What has the impact of sanctions been on the Russian public? And can Russia continue to thwart intern...

The U.S.-China relationship will figure prominently in global politics for decades to come. Getting China right, to the extent that’s possible, is critically important both to minimize the chances of conflict and maximize potential cooperation. Despite its rising power, China is also wrestling with sluggish growth, an aging population, and a failed pandemic policy that has sparked backlash against...

Russian aggression against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. While Ukrainian military offensives have shifted the momentum and recaptured significant swaths of territory, entrenched Russian positions and winter conditions have slowed the tempo of the fighting. Meanwhile, Russia’s air and missile strikes have crippled Ukrainian infrastructure and exacted a severe price on civilians. Where is...

The U.S.-Saudi relationship is going through some of the worst tensions in decades. In the wake of the Saudi-driven OPEC Plus decision in October to cut production, Biden has warned of “consequences” for the relationship. At the same time, the White House has also granted Mohammed bin Salman legal immunity over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a sting to Biden’s calls to uphold human rights. What co...

When it comes to foreign policy, George Will quipped, Americans want as little of it as possible. That much was even clearer this week as American voters had inflation, crime, abortion access, U.S. democracy, and recession fears at the top of their minds in the midterm elections. At the same time, warming temperatures, supply chain breakdowns, and a global pandemic have only reaffirmed the inescap...

Next week Americans will go to the polls in a midterm election that may speak volumes on how voters view the current policies of the Biden administration and provide a snapshot of the state of America’s deeply polarized politics. How will the election results shape the second half of Biden’s term in office? What did the pollsters get right and wrong about voters’ priorities? And what do the midter...

With negotiations over the nuclear deal on hold and Iran facing its most serious protests since 2009, the Biden administration is dealing with a new reality in its relations with the Iranian regime. How have the demonstrations reshaped the administration’s thinking on Iran? Is a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action still on the table? And what is the most effective approach to deal wi...

The Washington Post describes Susan Glasser and Peter Baker’s new book The Divider as the “most comprehensive and detailed account of the Trump presidency yet published.” From his “American carnage” inaugural address to the January 6th insurrection he helped trigger, the authors argue that far from lurching from one controversy to another, Donald Trump was constantly learning the techniques and pr...

The war in Ukraine is entering a new and more dangerous phase in the wake of the overnight success of Kyiv’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. A string of major Russian military setbacks is feeding hopes for a once-unthinkable Ukrainian victory in the war. For his part, Putin is moving to formally annex the parts of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces and is inching closer toward full-scale m...

The United States faces the most challenging trade environment in decades. Amid a complex domestic political environment, a more aggressive China, and varied trade views among U.S. allies to U.S. allies, the Biden administration has championed a new approach. In this complicated and fraught environment, what exactly is the worker-centered trade policy? Can trade really be designed to benefit Ameri...

As Israel approaches its fifth election in four years, it faces a series of challenges and opportunities. Worries over Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain, and a peace with the Palestinians remains elusive. Meanwhile, Israel has an opening to expand relations with the Gulf states and a longstanding relationship with the United States under a Biden administration keen on working together with Israel.  ...

In the prelude to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, intelligence played a critical role in exposing Vladimir Putin’s intentions to the world. Since then, NATO has expanded and doubled down on its efforts to counter Russia, all while keeping its eyes to the east on China. Meanwhile, old challenges persist in the Middle East—talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal have reached an impasse and there appears...

Millions of Americans are frustrated as U.S. gas prices now exceed $5 per gallon at the pump—and are only projected to rise. One of the key drivers behind the global inflationary spike is, of course, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Disruption in the flow of Russian oil and gas, combined with preexisting inflationary pressures, have roiled energy and financial markets and placed a renewed focus on en...

America is in trouble. Even as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to preoccupy the Biden administration, events at home offer a grim picture. While inflation and a resurgence of COVID-19 continue to darken the national mood, active shooters and mass killings, the rise of white nationalist extremism, and pernicious polarization on issues from gun control to voting rights to abortion seem to hav...

Putin’s brutal attacks against civilians in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have produced a rare moment of bipartisanship in the United States, even as the U.S. midterm elections draw near in November. However, if history is any indicator, the conflict itself is not likely to impact American voters at the polls.  But how important is presidential leadership in shaping voter preferences during an unpr...