Carnegie Connects

With no shortage of conflicts in today’s world, journalists covering war zones provide indispensable reporting and analysis, often at great personal risk. Few war correspondents have more experience covering conflict than CNN’S Clarissa Ward, who has covered conflicts from Afghanistan to Ukraine, to Syria and Gaza, reporting from the world’s hot spots providing first-hand accounts of violent confl...

Elections have consequences. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory carries implications for America’s governance and role in the world that are uncertain, transformative, and potentially dangerous to American democracy. What explains his election? Does it presage a genuine political realignment? What are the consequences of Republican control of the White House, Senate, and potentially the House?...

Ongoing conflicts between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are likely to define much of the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Israel may have escalation dominance, but this will not necessarily bring about security, let alone the political accords required to bring greater stability to the region. Most serious is the new reality created by Iranian and Israeli strikes directly on one another...

Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has broken a status quo that could carry potentially momentous consequences for a country and a region already marked by a year of conflict. Critical questions loom. What are Israel’s military objectives in the south and can they be achieved? Has the weakening of Hezbollah shifted Lebanon’s internal power balance and created opportunities for...

During the past two weeks, the possibility of a major Middle East multi-front war has increased significantly. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and Iran’s launching of ballistic missiles against Israel has created the potential of an escalatory ladder that both Iran and Israel might climb with dangerous consequences. Iran’s role and what they do next will be decisive.   Join Aaron David Miller...

As Lebanon was rocked by two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies directed at Hezbollah’s communications network, killing dozens and injuring thousands, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have risen to new heights.  In a fiery speech, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge.     How has this latest escalation impacted Lebanon’s internal politics? What are Hezbollah’s options in...

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has added a new dynamic to an otherwise predictable grinding war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine. The war has now dragged on for the better part of three years, with neither Moscow nor Kyiv able to achieve their territorial objectives. Nor are there any prospects for serious negotiations that might pause or end the war.  Are there any developments on the battlefie...

In a recent poll, two-thirds of American adults said they were concerned that “extremists” will commit acts of violence following the 2024 election if they are unhappy with the results. This should come as no surprise. Earlier this year the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that among other threats the 2024 election cycle will be a  “ key event for possible violence .” How real is that t...

The Middle East continues to boil. Following the Hezbollah rocket strike on a Druze town in the Golan Heights killing a dozen children, Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Two days later, the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed presumably by Israel in a missile strike in Tehran while attending the inauguration of the Iranian President....

This past spring many college and university campuses were roiled by unprecedented protests sparked by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Not since Vietnam has any foreign policy issue resulted in such widespread demonstrations on campuses. What explains the intensity of the reaction? Has the Israeli-Palestinian conflict become a permanent fixture of hot debate? What lessons have been learned should de...

The Israel-Hamas war drags on seemingly with no end in sight. President Biden has announced a phased plan to end the conflict, but Hamas has yet to respond and Benny Gantz, a supporter of the plan, has left the Israeli government. Meanwhile, there’s serious concern about the prospects of a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border.  What is the humanitarian situ...

As the Israel-Hamas war drags on, the potential for spillover effects increase. Three conflict areas have emerged that carry serious risk of escalation: first, growing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese border, attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis against international shipping in the Red Sea, threatening global supply chains and freedom of navigation, and the danger of...

Seven months on, the Israel-Hamas war continues with seemingly no end in sight, against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions. While Israel remains determined to pursue a major military operation in Rafah, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over the release of hostages and a ceasefire drag on. Following unprecedented strikes by Iran and Israel on one another’s territory, there is...

The recent attacks by Iran and Israel on one another’s territory have taken the strategic rivalry between these two adversaries into uncharted and dangerous territory. The unprecedented strikes seem to have been contained for now, but it’s by no means certain that this state will hold. The underlying issues that have fueled tensions — from conflict with regional proxies to Iran’s nuclear program —...

Congress is more involved in foreign policy — both formally and informally — than most Americans realize. With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, the Israeli-Hamas war continuing with no end in sight, and economic competition with China rising, Congress is likely to take a greater interest and have more influence on foreign policy in the coming year. How divided is Congress on the key for...

As the Israeli-Hamas war enters its sixth month, the conflict shows no signs of abating. The humanitarian plight of Gazans continues to deteriorate while the prospects of a major Israeli ground campaign in Rafah looms. At the same time, the negotiations surrounding a potential hostage deal appear stalled. What are Israel's current objectives in the conflict? How do tensions along the Israeli-Leban...

Late last year, the Economist asked an intriguing question: How scary is China? President Joe Biden’s administration clearly considers China a peer competitor to the United States and many in Congress view Beijing as a mortal threat. There’s no doubt that China poses serious challenges, even dangers in some areas, for America. But is Washington overlooking China’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities, a...

As the Israel-Gaza war enters its fifth month, the humanitarian situation for 2.3 million Gazans is increasingly dire. A grinding process of inspections of trucks has slowed delivery of aid, while Israel's ground campaign in southern Gaza—where an estimated 1.9 million displaced Palestinians now reside—makes using predictable and reliable corridors for transport extremely difficult. What is the fu...

In its threat assessment for 2024, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security forecast that, among other threats, the 2024 election cycle will be a “key event for possible violence and foreign influence targeting our election infrastructure, processes and personnel.” Indeed, Attorney General Merrick Garland noted that in recent months there had been a “deeply disturbing spike” in threats against gov...

The Israel-Hamas war may have pushed Ukraine off the front pages, but Russia's war against Kyiv is almost certain to remain a key focus of U.S. foreign policy throughout 2024. Tough choices await. Hopes that the combination of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive, tough sanctions, and diplomatic pressure might force Putin to alter his strategic calculus have given way to a more realistic asses...

As the Israel-Hamas war enters its second month, the role of intelligence has figured prominently. How did Israel fail to grasp Hamas’s intentions and capabilities and to anticipate the October 7 attack? Was this a failure of imagination or were there structural and bureaucratic impediments that prevented Israel’s intelligence community from identifying the dots and connecting them? Are domestic p...

With the ever-present possibility of tensions between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific, the war between Russia and Ukraine with no end in sight, and a new crisis between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East that could easily escalate, the United States seems to be stretched along several political and military fronts. How should President Joe Biden’s administration think strategicall...

The Israel-Hamas war has pushed the Palestinian issue to center stage both in the region and internationally. Have Hamas’s October 7 attack, Israel’s blockade and airstrikes, and the ensuing humanitarian catastrophe altered Gazans’ views on Hamas? What did Hamas hope to gain from the attack? Has the Palestinian Authority been weakened further by the escalating violence in the areas under its contr...

Since October 7, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has escalated to its highest level in recent years. The brutality of the Hamas attacks, the hostage-taking, and Israel’s response to date, including devastating air strikes in Gaza and the blockade—have intensified the conflict. Will Israel launch a major ground campaign against Hamas? What is the fate of the hostages? Is there a chance that t...

Relations between Iran and the United States remain fraught. A period of de-escalation has been ushered in by Iran’s release of five American hostages in exchange for five Iranian nationals and the unfreezing of around $6 billion of Iranian assets that Tehran can now access only for food and humanitarian aid. On a separate track, through indirect negotiations, the United States and Iran reached a...