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With this month's increase in US Treasury interest rates the talk about inflation came up quite a bit in the financial news. But what causes inflation? What are the different types of inflation? How is inflation measured?   Different causes of inflation Cost Push Inflation Demand Pull Inflation Hyperinflation Structural Inflation   CPI Index Hedonic Adjustments to CPI Substitutions in CPI measurem...

Recently there have been many discussions on the valuation of the S&P 500 based on forward earnings multiples. But what role do bond yields have in that evaluation? Does the implied P/E ratio of the Baa bond yield or US 10 Year Treasury yield imply that stocks have more room to run? In any case, why not just buy but hedge as a strategy?   S&P 500 Index earnings yield Inverse of P/E ratio is the E/...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli team up once again to discuss how probabilities are used to understand where to sell short options to generate premium. Discussed in this episode are who is on the other side of the short volatility trade, how changes in implied volatility impact expected multiple standard deviations of expected movement, and how value at risk VAR impacts option premiums. Plus, the...

Lately some high-profile companies have gone public using the IPO process. But how does it work and what are the differences between a traditional IPO listing and a Direct Listing IPO? Is Bill Gurley right when he says companies are leaving too much money on the table?   AirBnB IPO price pop IPO Process – Investment banks and selling syndicate Direct Listing IPO Greenshoe IPO provision Bill Gurley...

Some investors wonder whether it would be better to have bad returns early or bad returns late? Surprisingly unless someone is withdrawing funds or bringing in money it does not matter. But when does it matter? It can be quite a significant different during the withdrawal stage. Learn about how the sequence of returns comes into play depending on what phase you are in.   Is it better to have bad i...

Viktor Nebehaj guests on the episode to discuss how app-based brokerage Freetrade is looking to help millennials break down barriers and costs to make investing a habit. How technology has reduced friction in helping them get started. Why they and others like Robinhood have been able to acquire investors even though the legacy brokers offer the same or more. How do companies like his make money wh...

The Wall of Worry pertains to investors always worrying as markets climb higher. So what are some of the bull and bear cases on the markets, valuations, inflation, interest rates, stocks and bonds? Jay Pestrichelli is back on the program to discuss all these and hedging strategies as alternatives.     What is the Wall of Worry for investors? Are Bonds even worth it given such low interest rates? P...

Clean your garage this weekend to find something to sell on EBAY to fund your investment account. Where to go to open an investment account. How to buy fractional shares of companies. Should I buy a fund or individual stocks when starting out? Schwab vs Robinhood?   Schwab and Fidelity stock slices for fractional share purchases How to buy your first stock Dollar cost averaging periodic investment...

Spencer Wright of Halbert Wealth Management joins the podcast to talk through the various Senate and Presidential races. What are the polls saying? What about the hidden Trump vote? Likely scenarios for the electoral college.     Review of key senate races and predictions The electoral college landscape in key states Why Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona may decide the 2020 election   Reliabilit...

Given the varies stimulus plans in 2020 the national debt has risen to new records. Yet, this political season we've heard little to nothing about it. How to understand the national debt, debt to GDP, debt held by the public. Plus, what does the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) say the debt to rise to? Will the interest payments exceed the cost of social security and all of defense before long? •...

Whether owning a home or owning stocks creates strong opinions on both sides. But what would be a way to evaluate the differences? Historically how have returns of homes vs the S&P 500 Index compared? What homeowners miss about gains in the price of their home.   Historical annualized returns housing vs the stock market Is your house an asset or a liability? How to think about your total true cost...

Rates jumped 30% in the US Treasury 5-year maturities this past week! Off course they only went from .25% to .33%, but why are some analysts on CNBC saying the next 10 years bonds may not return the same amount? What are the risks in bonds should interest rates rise? Do bonds offer a negative real return after inflation?   End of the Bull Market in Bonds? Bonds sensitivity to interest rate changes...

Your starting to hear about the options market pricing in huge volatility for November. This week, there was talk about the December contract getting bid up in case of a contested election. What does that mean? And how did volatility react during the Bush vs. Gore Florida recount and supreme court decision in the 2000 Presidential Election?   VIX Futures VIX before and after Bush v Gore 2000 elect...

As October is here naturally the stories start to appear around volatility and historical market returns. Many people assume October is the worst month for the stock market. Is October the most volatile? What is the average stock market returns by month? In this episode we will review and answer those questions. Plus, is it more important for the market to expect volatility in the "implied volatil...

Jay Pestrichelli co-hosts this episode with Derek where they discuss the continued talk around Robinhood Traders buying deep out of the money options to force market makers to buy stock. Plus, they discuss the reported $4 Billion spent buy Softbank to purchase option positions in some tech names. How do market makers hedge and the challenges with short term deep out of the money call option buying...

Lately you have probably heard analysts going on CNBC saying given where interest rates are valuations are or are not overstretched. But how do interest rates, and low interest rates, affect stock valuations? How to they affect the cost of capital and the ROIC or return on invested capital? How do you discount down future earnings based on a discount rate?   Why interest rates matter to investors...

Many people know they should understand what their current net worth is. Many also know they should get a handle on their cash flow versus income. Yet it often seems too complicated. Lets uncomplicate personal finance a bit and see how to come up with your current assets and liabilities quickly and easily. Also, how to compile and work through your expenditures versus income.     The larger expens...

The US Presidential election season is in full swing. But does it matter for the Stock Market which party gets elected? Spencer Wright from Halbert Wealth joins Derek to review some surprising historical statistics around market returns and GDP growth. Including some surprising data on some Presidents you might have been better or worse. Plus, they go through Professor Alan Lichtman's 13 Keys mode...

If you listen to CNBC or Bloomberg you probably hear analysts talking about how the Forward PE Ratio is higher than historical averages on the stock market. But how are they figuring these numbers? How does the drop in earnings in the S&P 500 in 2020 due to Covid19 compare with earnings drops in 2008 and 2009? How long did it take them to recover?   What is a Forward PE Ratio? How is the Forward P...

For years many have pointed to the end of the 60/40 Portfolio's reign as a mass recommended asset allocation. But even in 2020, it still worked as bonds rallied and interest rates dropped to record low levels in the US. But with rates this low, do the risks now outweigh any potential benefits? How much more could bonds rally due to changes in interest rates given where they are? How negative could...

In the recent Covid financial crisis the Federal Reserve "printed" a bunch of money that increased the money supply. This should lead to massive inflation, right? Well, maybe not if we look at the relationship between the velocity of money (how often the same dollar is used) and the inflation rate. See how to figure out the velocity of money. What is the money supply and where to find it?     What...

Apple released earnings last week but also announced their board authorized a 4-1 stock split. Do stocks splits matter anymore? And would a 4-1 Apple stock split completely shake up the weighting of the Dow Jones Industrial Index?   Effect of Stock Splits Authorized stock split vs. implemented How a stock split affects a company's market cap What changes around earnings history and price history p...

Last week we talked about Tesla's potential to qualify for the S&P 500 Index. Post earnings, some new option traders were surprised by the stock and options prices post positive earnings release. Plus, a paper recently updated called "Day trading for a living?" compile data on day traders trading futures contracts.   The results were not too promising but what did the paper leave out?   Tesla opti...

Tesla has had a meteoric rise lately. At their recent high their market cap would have put them in the top 10 weighted companies of the S&P 500 Index. But will Tesla have the required consecutive quarters of positive earnings? What are the criteria for a company to be included in the S&P 500 Index? When does S&P do their index rebalancing? Which companies have been added and deleted from the index...

Why doesn't the stock market and economy both go up or down with one another at the same time? How is the market a forward-looking discounting mechanism? How do recessions and earnings expectations play into underlying price of the S&P 500 Index?   Atlanta Fed GDP Now   Comparing historical recessions by examining real GDP declines Great Depression vs. Financial Crisis vs 2020 Covid19 Recession Lo...