Manifold

Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture. 00:00 Introduction 02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble 08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War 16:5...

Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18 Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome (02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception (06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom (21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism (35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide (54:30) - Future o...

Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley. Chapters: (00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley (01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley (04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI (23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications (34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness (5...

Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.com Philippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43 (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey (08:29) - Philosop...

Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC . He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of...

Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X. Molson Hart o...

Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic. Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachus...

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system. Steve and Glenn discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China (07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy (14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture...

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth! Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site. March 2024: "Terraform completes the e...

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/ Steve and Russell discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan 13:25 Hong Kong and finance 31:53 China property bubble 48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency 56:09 Jap...

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.  Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibrat...

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Da...

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it? Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refine...

Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement. More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4 00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and...

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology. Previous episodes with TP include: China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48 Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-...

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies. https://research.gavekal.com/ Steve and Louis discuss: (00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer (14:42) - Founding Gavekal (23:50) - Understanding China economic growth (32:57) - China real estate market (42:48) - The impact of C...

Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry. Lynk - https://lynk.world/ Steve and Charles discuss: 0:00 Introduction and guest background 1:27 Miller's early passion for space 3:54 Evolution of commercial space 6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX 8:01 The challenges of early stage startups 11:26 The birth of Lynk...

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang . 0:00 Introduction 2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles 6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market 9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market 14:41 Buying a car in China 27:05 China dominate...

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. Follow him on X @TaylorOgan . Steve and Taylor discuss:  0:00 Introduction 1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China 20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism 33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR 56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits 1:06:52 US-China competition...

Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security. Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/ Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists: https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06...

Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. Steve and Yasheng discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s 15:29 Civil service exams and Hua...

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang . Steve and TP discuss: 0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology 5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC 23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics 28:21 Impact on Qualcomm 36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for China semiconduc...

Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies. Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharing CLA and...

Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist. Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl Interviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenello An earlier Aella interview with Reason: https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/ Steve and Aella discuss: (00:00)...

Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements. Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs. Tim and Steve discuss: Tim...