Manifold

Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently, he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research, which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult problems....

Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing. https://chat.z.ai/ Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_org Chapter marker...

This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts The theme of this episode derives from Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin   Steve and Alf discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:32) - China Victory Day Parade and new military technology (12:27) - The SCO s...

Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the US, Japa...

Dr. Joleen Liang is Co-founder of Squirrel AI, which pioneered adaptive learning at scale, first in China and now in the US. By 2021 its technology had served over 60,000 public schools in 1,200 cities across Asia. Squirrel AI has implemented large knowledge graphs mapping out the main concepts in the K-12 math, science, and language curriculum. The Squirrel learning tablet actively observes stude...

Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley. A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading and on in...

Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth. https://makesunsets.com/ Previous Manifold episodes on climate: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/casey-handmer-terraform-industries-and-...

Manifold has its own Discord channel!  https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NX The purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai. Chapter markers: (00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A (02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics (09:28) - Trump Adminis...

Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group. Steve and Omar discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI (10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind (16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs (33:39) - T...

Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China.   “The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one of the...

Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition? Read TP...

Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2. Zihan's homepage:  https://zihanwang314.github.io/ (00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China (11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow from PRC t...

Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship. Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011 (00:...

This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/ (00:00) - Introduction (01:11) - China AI (02:30) - DeepSeek (04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance (08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives (12:54) - China Meritocracy (24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China (37:12) - European Defense and Security (41:49) - US-China-Europe...

Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel." (00:00) - Introduction (02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel' (06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences (13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism (18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom (26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships (32:47) - Representation and Character Dynamics (40...

Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives. (00:00) - Introduction (02:07) - US-Russia Relations (03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy (05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia (09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion (14:...

Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai . He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project. https://x.com/MishaLaskin Steve and Misha discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education (03:50) - Trans...

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation.   Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47   Steve and Taylor discuss:  (00:00) -...

Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel T...

(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power (00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model (02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute (10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations (15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China (34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology (42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs (46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes (52:20) - Chinese S...

Relevant links: Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5 Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/ Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dp Chapters: (00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam (03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved" (04:51)...

Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind.   Links of interest: http://bach.ai/ https://x.com/Plinz Steve and Joscha discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germa...

This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning. Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPod Information Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw   (00:00) - Introduc...

Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi Center. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history.   Follow Pascal on X @Plottaz Pascal's YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies   (00:00) - Pro...

(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China (02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality (06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing (15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture (22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite (27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China (33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on...