Manifold

Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan. Sample articles: Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/ Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02...

Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun! They discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses 17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon? 29...

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern. Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC. Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions pre...

In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus. AI. 0:00 Introduction 1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI  14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone? 30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans? 34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside 41:28 AI Doomers and Alignment Links to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs. Artific...

David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000. Steve and David discuss: 0:00 Introduction 2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia 16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis 23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy 29:44 How Huawei’s stre...

This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models. Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharing Chapter markers: 0:00 Introduction 2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical res...

In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate ( CollinsInstitute.org ), pronatalism activist ( Pronatalist.org ), and business operator ( Travelmax.com ). Note: the YouTube version of this interview includes video of Steve and Simone. Steve and Simone di...

Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian. Steve and Katherine discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:15 Katherine’s early life and background 21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels 59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights 1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter 1:33:00 TikTok 1:41:41 Adderall 1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos 1:49:30 Gen-X gener...

Marc Martinez is the director of Dream Big, a documentary about Gold's Gym and the golden age of bodybuilding in Venice and Santa Monica in the 1970s. Steve and Marc discuss: (01:34) - Marc's background in bodybuilding (05:36) - Reflections on bodybuilding in Southern California (26:03) - Setting the record straight on steroid use (33:52) - Frank Zane (38:33) - Robby Robinson (40:32) - Butler, Gai...

Gilles Saint-Paul is Professeur à l'Ecole Normale Supérieure. He is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique in Engineering and received his PhD from MIT in Economics. Gilles and Steve discuss the French elite education system, the Yellow Vest movement, French politics and populism, and Saint-Paul’s paper on marriage markets and hypergamy. 0:00 Introduction 1:43 Gilles Saint-Paul's background and educati...

Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos. 00:00 Introduction 02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination 20:52 China demographics & STEM 34:29 China IVF 40:28 Survey on embryo screening in Science References: Bing vs Bard and Hallucinat...

Steve discusses Large Language Model AIs such as ChatGPT.  0:00 How do LLMs work? 10:22 Impact of ChatGPT 15:21 AI landscape 24:13 Hallucination and Focus 33:09 Applications 39:29 Future Landscape References: Manifold interview with John Schulman of OpenAI: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/john-schulman-openai-and-recent-advances-in-artificial-intelligence-16 Blog posts on word vectors and appro...

Dominic Cummings is a major historical figure in UK politics. He helped save the Pound Sterling, led the Vote Leave campaign, Got Brexit Done, and guided the Tories to a landslide general election victory. His time in No. 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson's Chief Advisor was one of the most interesting and impactful periods in modern UK political history. Dom and Steve discuss all of this and mor...

Sahil Lavingia founded Gumroad at the age of 19 and built it into a leading digital commerce platform. He is the author of The Minimalist Entrepreneur and an investor in early-stage startups. Steve and Sahil discuss: 0:00 Sahil's upbringing and start as an entrepreneur 9:35 Tech founder at 19 and VC investment from Kleiner-Perkins 24:15 Backstory of Gumroad 30:30 Crowdfunding Gumroad 37:09 Experim...

Geoffrey Miller is an American evolutionary psychologist, author, and a professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico. He is known for his research on sexual selection in human evolution. For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Miller_%28psychologist%29 Steve and Geoffrey discuss: 0:00 Geoffrey Miller's background, childhood, and how he became interested in psychology 14:44...

Anna I. Krylov (Russian: Анна Игоревна Крылова) is a Professor of Chemistry at the University of Southern California (USC), working in the field of theoretical and computational quantum chemistry. Krylov is an outspoken advocate of freedom of speech and academic freedom. She is a founding member of the Academic Freedom Alliance and a member of its academic leadership committee. Her paper, The Peri...

Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam. Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup...

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern. Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.   Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissi...

Peter Byrne is an investigative reporter and science writer based in Northern California. His popular biography, The Many Worlds of Hugh Everett III - Multiple Universes, Mutual Assured Destruction, and the Meltdown of a Nuclear Family (Oxford University Press, 2010) was followed by publication of The Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Collected Works 1957-1980 , (Princeton University Pr...

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Professor Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and is a University Professor, Columbia's highest academic rank. Steve and Jeffrey discuss: 0:00 Jeffrey Sachs’ experience on the Lancet Commission for...

Rob Henderson grew up in foster homes in California, joined the Air Force at 17, attended Yale on the G.I. Bill, and is currently a Gates Fellow at Cambridge University (UK). He is an acute observer of American society and has coined the term Luxury Beliefs to describe ideas and opinions that confer status on the rich at very little cost, while taking a toll on the lower class. Steve and Rob discu...

Professor Lyle Goldstein recently retired after 20 years of service on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC). During his career at NWC, he founded the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) and has been awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for this achievement. He has written or edited seven books on Chinese strategy and is at work on a book-length project that examines the natur...

The guest for this episode is a recent graduate of Harvard College, now pursuing a STEM PhD at another elite university. We have withheld his identity so that he can speak candidly. Steve and his guest discuss: 0:00 Anonymous student’s academic background and admission to Harvard 21:37 Intellectual curiosity at Harvard 29:36 Academic rigor at Harvard and the difference between classes in STEM and...

Richard Lowery is a professor of finance at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, Austin. In this conversation, he describes the ideological climate of his university and the consequent negative effects on undergraduate education and freedom of expression on campus. Links: Richard Lowery at UT Austin: https://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-directory/james-...

Tim Palmer is Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, and a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin Institute. He is interested in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, including extreme events. He was involved in the first five IPCC assessment reports and was co-chair of the international scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme project (CLIVAR)...