Katja reads to you

Situational Awareness: 2. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion (Part A) 15.10.2024 47:21 ↓

AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and the peril—of superintelligence would be dramatic.

Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs (Part E): Counting the OOMs / Algorithmic Efficiencies 10.10.2024 25:12 ↓

Algorithms are getting way better, but we're going to hit a data wall or jump over it

Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs (Part D): Counting the OOMs / Compute 02.10.2024 14:42 ↓

Compute

Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part C) 01.10.2024 12:53 ↓

The trends in deep learning

Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part A) 29.09.2024 11:25 ↓

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. 

Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part B) 29.09.2024 15:35 ↓

"GPT-2 to GPT-4"

Situational Awareness: Introduction 28.09.2024 7:57 ↓

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