Gordon Kerr's Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how Europe’s economic picture is becoming increasingly divided, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery even as inflation and cautious consumers weigh on retail activity. Gordon also examines the UK government’s emerging industrial and fiscal strategy, as well as new Office for National Statistics (ONS...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores Europe’s push to improve competitiveness, deepen its capital markets, and strengthen energy security, while considering the political and implementation challenges that could slow progress. Gordon also looks at the Bank of England’s redesigned quantitative tightening (QT) programme, Germany’s regional electi...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how persistent inflation, energy-market pressures, shifting EU-China trade policy, and deeper Canada-Europe ties are reshaping the outlook for European credit. Gordon also explores the topic of what stronger UK growth and changing rate expectations could mean for markets as autumn volatility begins to build.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the renewed pressure on European bond markets from inflation risks, improving growth, fiscal challenges, and political uncertainty, which reinforce the prospect of higher rates for longer. Gordon also discusses new European Central Bank research on both synthetic securitisation and the artificial intelligenc...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the key messages from Jackson Hole, Wyoming,[SP1]  examines what the latest euro-area inflation data could mean for the European Central Bank (ECB), and considers why the Bank of England may have more room to wait. We also look at the G20 discussions, rising geopolitical and trade risks, the resurgence of UK...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how Germany’s economy is showing signs of life, but the recovery remains heavily dependent on exports and manufacturing. He examines the latest GDP data, improving business confidence, and why Germany’s pension reforms could have longer-term implications for European capital markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines three constraints reshaping European credit: drought and low river levels, evolving bank capital rules, and increasingly scarce power connections for data centres. He explores how each could affect costs, competition, financing, and investment across Europe.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how Europe's drought is exposing the vulnerability of its inland transport network, creating fresh risks for supply chains, manufacturing, and inflation. He also examines European leveraged credit and what another strong earnings season means for investors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores wildfires, Europe’s accelerating electric vehicle (EV) transition, and what improving manufacturing data tells us about the region’s economic outlook. As Europe faces another summer of climate shocks, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising energy prices—Gordon comments on a credit story that is more resilient...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how higher oil and gas prices could affect inflation, margins, and European Central Bank (ECB) communication; what early corporate results reveal about sector strength; and why Andy Burnham’s early fiscal choices will matter more to markets than the political reset.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, investigates the renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which has complicated Europe’s inflation and interest-rate outlook just as investors prepare for Q2 earnings. Gordon also examines the views of major investment managers, the case for European credit, and the opportunities emerging from the region’s expandi...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines the sharp shift in Europe’s inflation narrative, from renewed energy-driven price concerns to a more disinflationary backdrop. The episode also looks at Europe’s tentative growth recovery, the UK’s political and fiscal uncertainty, and Germany’s reform-and-spending package as a potential source of medium-ter...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses Germany’s credit story as it shifts between labour-market pressure, rising insolvencies, Schuldschein stress, and a potentially important pension-reform proposal. The episode also explores defensive European Union (EU) trade measures, artificial intelligence (AI)-related debt issuance, and why European Cent...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses private credit defaults with KBRA Direct Lending Deals. Rachel McGovern and Eric Rosenthal join in a conversation with Gordon, highlighting the performance of European direct lending.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how a tentative Gulf peace deal could lower energy-price risks and support European credit markets, while still leaving uncertainty around oil flows, inflation, and supply-chain normalisation. Gordon also looks at soft European industrial production data and considers how UK political uncertainty, including...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, speaks from Global ABS in Barcelona, where European securitisation markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum amid regulatory reform and growing placed issuance. Gordon also looks at why UK data continue to surprise to the upside, even as consumers remain cautious and fixed income markets navigate inflation,...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines the latest pressure points across European credit markets: eurozone inflation, manufacturing momentum, and the UK housing slowdown. Gordon debates whether inflation pressures are becoming more persistent, whether Europe’s manufacturing rebound is genuine, and how higher-for-longer rates are affecting UK hous...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the UK’s newly concluded trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and what it could mean for exporters, financial services, and digital trade. He also unpacks the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest assessment of private credit risks in Europe and considers how artificial intelligence (AI) is...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines whether Europe’s productivity problem is more nuanced than the “US exceptionalism” narrative suggests, and what that means for credit markets, technology autonomy, and long-term investment. Gordon then turns to the UK’s growth challenge and the rise in long-dated sovereign yields, highlighting why fiscal cre...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how Asia’s early response could act as a warning signal for prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz that could pressure Europe through energy prices, industrial margins, and inflation risks. He also reviews March industrial production data and reported Q1 STOXX Europe 600 earnings, highlighting a ma...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how geopolitical shocks and inflation are reshaping the European credit outlook, delaying recovery and raising stagflation risks. Gordon also examines the growing influence of Big Tech in credit markets as firms like Alphabet issue massive debt to fund artificial intelligence (AI), creating both opportunitie...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines what weaker surveys, tighter lending conditions, and cautious issuance mean for credit markets and central bank policy. Gordon also discusses how rising inflation expectations, softer consumer sentiment, and delayed business investment are shaping Europe’s uncertain growth outlook.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines why markets are focused on Britain, Italy, and France—as higher yields and limited fiscal flexibility raise new questions for European credit. Gordon also looks at the UK’s artificial intelligence (AI)-driven growth story, Germany’s fragile recovery, and what the energy shock continues to mean for issuers, s...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how the IMF views the Strait of Hormuz disruption as reshaping Europe’s macro-credit outlook through slower growth, energy sensitivity, and renewed inflation risk. Gordon also explores Hungary’s political shift, the ECB’s banking reform proposals, and what easing volatility, but higher yields, mean for Europ...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how European credit markets are navigating a complex mix of energy shocks, policy intervention, and rising refinancing risk. Gordon unpacks what Brent backwardation is signalling, how governments are responding, and why dispersion across credit is set to widen.