Gordon Kerr's Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines the sharp shift in Europe’s inflation narrative, from renewed energy-driven price concerns to a more disinflationary backdrop. The episode also looks at Europe’s tentative growth recovery, the UK’s political and fiscal uncertainty, and Germany’s reform-and-spending package as a potential source of medium-ter...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses Germany’s credit story as it shifts between labour-market pressure, rising insolvencies, Schuldschein stress, and a potentially important pension-reform proposal. The episode also explores defensive European Union (EU) trade measures, artificial intelligence (AI)-related debt issuance, and why European Cent...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses private credit defaults with KBRA Direct Lending Deals. Rachel McGovern and Eric Rosenthal join in a conversation with Gordon, highlighting the performance of European direct lending.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how a tentative Gulf peace deal could lower energy-price risks and support European credit markets, while still leaving uncertainty around oil flows, inflation, and supply-chain normalisation. Gordon also looks at soft European industrial production data and considers how UK political uncertainty, including...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, speaks from Global ABS in Barcelona, where European securitisation markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum amid regulatory reform and growing placed issuance. Gordon also looks at why UK data continue to surprise to the upside, even as consumers remain cautious and fixed income markets navigate inflation,...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines the latest pressure points across European credit markets: eurozone inflation, manufacturing momentum, and the UK housing slowdown. Gordon debates whether inflation pressures are becoming more persistent, whether Europe’s manufacturing rebound is genuine, and how higher-for-longer rates are affecting UK hous...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the UK’s newly concluded trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and what it could mean for exporters, financial services, and digital trade. He also unpacks the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest assessment of private credit risks in Europe and considers how artificial intelligence (AI) is...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines whether Europe’s productivity problem is more nuanced than the “US exceptionalism” narrative suggests, and what that means for credit markets, technology autonomy, and long-term investment. Gordon then turns to the UK’s growth challenge and the rise in long-dated sovereign yields, highlighting why fiscal cre...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how Asia’s early response could act as a warning signal for prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz that could pressure Europe through energy prices, industrial margins, and inflation risks. He also reviews March industrial production data and reported Q1 STOXX Europe 600 earnings, highlighting a ma...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how geopolitical shocks and inflation are reshaping the European credit outlook, delaying recovery and raising stagflation risks. Gordon also examines the growing influence of Big Tech in credit markets as firms like Alphabet issue massive debt to fund artificial intelligence (AI), creating both opportunitie...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines what weaker surveys, tighter lending conditions, and cautious issuance mean for credit markets and central bank policy. Gordon also discusses how rising inflation expectations, softer consumer sentiment, and delayed business investment are shaping Europe’s uncertain growth outlook.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines why markets are focused on Britain, Italy, and France—as higher yields and limited fiscal flexibility raise new questions for European credit. Gordon also looks at the UK’s artificial intelligence (AI)-driven growth story, Germany’s fragile recovery, and what the energy shock continues to mean for issuers, s...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how the IMF views the Strait of Hormuz disruption as reshaping Europe’s macro-credit outlook through slower growth, energy sensitivity, and renewed inflation risk. Gordon also explores Hungary’s political shift, the ECB’s banking reform proposals, and what easing volatility, but higher yields, mean for Europ...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how European credit markets are navigating a complex mix of energy shocks, policy intervention, and rising refinancing risk. Gordon unpacks what Brent backwardation is signalling, how governments are responding, and why dispersion across credit is set to widen.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the European Central Bank’s (ECB) increasingly hawkish tone, the tug-of-war between inflation and growth expectations, and what recent data signals for rates. Gordon also assesses a potential UK consumer boost from auto loan compensation and improving housing activity. All-in higher yields are creating more...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how energy prices and geopolitical tensions are impacting European economies and credit markets. Gordon provides a sharp look at the rising energy prices rippling through inflation, policy, and credit markets—and why this shock may play out differently from 2022.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping expectations for European monetary policy and credit markets. He also explores EU capital markets integration, central bank signals, and what softer UK data means for spreads and issuance.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how the recent conflict involving Iran has influenced energy markets and what that means for Europe’s economic and credit outlook. We discuss Europe’s exposure to oil and natural gas prices, the mixed signals coming from German economic data, and how credit markets have responded to rising uncertainty.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the impact of the recent conflict in Iran, a UK nonbank lending scare, rising artificial intelligence (AI) disruption fears in software, and what widening spreads really signal. Beneath the headlines, the story may not be systemic stress—but growing dispersion.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines early signs of stabilisation in the European economy, including improving German growth data and renewed policy momentum. We also assess the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expanded liquidity framework and the recent return of investor flows to European markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines bank lending views via several recent surveys. Gordon also investigates recent large European bank results and whether their views differ.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines France’s budget outcome, shifting growth dynamics across the euro area, record-setting issuance, and what tight valuations mean for credit investors. The message is constructive—but with limited room for error as markets price in good news.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews the World Economic Forum (WEF) Davos 2026 conference. Gordon also explores the recent trade deal with India and some recent data that hints at positive economic signs for Europe seeping through the cracks.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines a number of new developments in Europe. Gordon explores recent trade tensions and geopolitical risks that remain in the fore, but notes that low defaults, easing rate expectations, and improving sentiment continue to support a positive European story.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines early signals from UK and European consumer data. Gordon also explores Europe’s progress on the long-awaited Mercosur trade agreement and its strategic importance, as well as how European Union defence spending is beginning to translate into real economic activity.