Gordon Kerr's Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews Europe’s start to the year. As the region faces a year of development, a stable start to the data presents a positive backdrop, which Gordon outlines in his recent article in the Business Post (link: https://www.businesspost.ie/analysis-opinion/gordon-kerr-why-ai-defence-and-trade-hold-the-key-to-europes-grow...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews Europe’s standout year in credit markets—from record issuance to tight spreads—and explores the forces behind the strength. Gordon then outlines a ChatGPT synthesis of 60 industry outlooks to reveal the emerging consensus for 2026 and potential tail risks.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses two structural shifts facing Europe as 2026 approaches: Bulgaria’s entry into the euro area and the early stages of the Dutch pension transition. One adds institutional depth; the other may reshape flows, duration demand, and asset-allocation trends across the continent.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines rising fiscal and financial stability concerns across the UK and Europe, from the UK’s “buy now, pay later” budget to France’s tightening fiscal path. Gordon also discusses Bank of England and ECB [European Central Bank] research about the shifting risks in the private credit and insurance sectors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores Europe’s latest insolvency reform, Italy’s “golden power” dispute, and expectations for the UK’s upcoming budget. Together, they illustrate how regulation, politics, and fiscal credibility continue to shape Europe’s evolving credit landscape—offering both progress and persistent friction.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the powerful intersection of AI and energy—how data-centre expansion is reshaping electricity demand, the grid bottlenecks slowing Europe’s transition, and what that means for credit markets. He also discusses the UK economy, where policy uncertainty tests investor confidence ahead of the Budget.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the way AI is changing the economics of labour, productivity, and credit—fast. Gordon examines how that’s feeding into hiring freezes, pay restraint, and a surge in European private credit flows, and how that is impacting credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses the recent growth data, the surprising country standouts, and what is behind the momentum. Gordon also explores how investment themes could help to support the nascent growth in the region.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the signals behind the continent’s fragile recovery: what central banks are really saying, how European lenders are managing risk, and why cautious optimism may finally be warranted. Gordon explores what these crosscurrents mean for growth, credit, and investor sentiment across Europe and the UK.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, dives into the interplay between energy markets and European corporate credit. We explore how unusually low oil costs and a contango futures curve are signalling more than just margin relief. Gordon then unpacks recent earnings surprises in Europe, with a focus on forward guidance and changing expectations.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores some insight from the society of professional economists annual event. He further comments on developments from the Eurogroup ECOFIN meetings and covers some perspective on recent market volatility.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the views of chief economists across the globe. In particular, their views on the direction and potential for Europe. Gordon also reviews the developing situation in France and its impact on markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews recent business surveys from McKinsey and Lloyds. Their views provide some insight into the prospect for growth and employment in the months ahead. Further, Gordon adds some colour to the UK’s prospects out of the recent Labour Party conference.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews recent developments of the US-UK relationship following as a state visit from the US that brought new investment commitments. Further, Gordon highlights the region’s uneven path to recovery and the risks the China-US trade war is presenting to Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adcho...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, investigates the potential impact of the plans outlined in the State of the European Union address by Ursula von der Leyen. The UK continues to struggle along, but a US visit could offer some reprieve as growth outlooks for European economies are revised upwards. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/a...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the challenges facing the governments of France and the UK. France grapples with political turmoil and the UK delays its budget, yet bond markets remain resilient with issuance staying strong. Further, Gordon outlines the challenges facing Europe’s automakers from electric vehicle (EV) competition and fragil...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the challenges facing Europe’s largest economies as they are tested by their budgetary plans. Further, Gordon provides some highlights of the bright signs of change starting to emerge in the eurozone. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines how the new EU-US tariff agreement is affecting European auto manufacturers, as revealed through their Q2 earnings and updated guidance. Further, Gordon provides some insight into the UK auto finance market, UK directors’ views, and European bank stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.f...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the European Union’s new trade deal with the US. Gordon analyses the impact this deal may have and what is still missing, as well as highlights an example of the types of divergent data signals we are likely to see in the months ahead as economies adjust to the new norms. Further, Gordon highlights the lates...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the growing fiscal pressures for the UK and France alongside Germany’s bold investment-led growth push. Gordon outlines what these divergent strategies mean for credit markets, with a closer look at shifting survey expectations on expected defaults. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adch...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the impact of the heatwave on Europe. Gordon also discusses his look forward as outlined in his recent publication, The Forward Look—European and UK Credit Views: Q3 2025. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the shifting global trade order, with the European Union balancing a fine line between the US and China. Gordon discusses the challenges in Germany, the benefits this could bring to Europe, and bond investor scrutiny of European governments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines a number of tailwinds supporting European credit investment. The accelerating flow of capital into European private credit is set to continue. Gordon outlines these private credit developments as well as improvements in trade positions and regulatory changes. Further, Gordon highlights some of the outlooks f...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the improving sentiment in Europe among consumers and corporate management. Gordon also comments on the increased spending plans by NATO countries and their impact on European economies. In addition, he highlights the heightened uncertainty and the market’s apparent indifference to potential risks. Learn mor...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, highlights the impact of escalating conflict and its effect on European energy prices. Gordon outlines what this means for inflation and growth as well as the impact of the UK’s spending review. Further, Gordon comments on banking consolidation in Europe as more cross-border deals are emerging. Learn more about your...