Gordon Kerr's Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the European Central Bank’s (ECB) increasingly hawkish tone, the tug-of-war between inflation and growth expectations, and what recent data signals for rates. Gordon also assesses a potential UK consumer boost from auto loan compensation and improving housing activity. All-in higher yields are creating more...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how energy prices and geopolitical tensions are impacting European economies and credit markets. Gordon provides a sharp look at the rising energy prices rippling through inflation, policy, and credit markets—and why this shock may play out differently from 2022.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping expectations for European monetary policy and credit markets. He also explores EU capital markets integration, central bank signals, and what softer UK data means for spreads and issuance.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how the recent conflict involving Iran has influenced energy markets and what that means for Europe’s economic and credit outlook. We discuss Europe’s exposure to oil and natural gas prices, the mixed signals coming from German economic data, and how credit markets have responded to rising uncertainty.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the impact of the recent conflict in Iran, a UK nonbank lending scare, rising artificial intelligence (AI) disruption fears in software, and what widening spreads really signal. Beneath the headlines, the story may not be systemic stress—but growing dispersion.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines early signs of stabilisation in the European economy, including improving German growth data and renewed policy momentum. We also assess the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expanded liquidity framework and the recent return of investor flows to European markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines bank lending views via several recent surveys. Gordon also investigates recent large European bank results and whether their views differ.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines France’s budget outcome, shifting growth dynamics across the euro area, record-setting issuance, and what tight valuations mean for credit investors. The message is constructive—but with limited room for error as markets price in good news.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews the World Economic Forum (WEF) Davos 2026 conference. Gordon also explores the recent trade deal with India and some recent data that hints at positive economic signs for Europe seeping through the cracks.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines a number of new developments in Europe. Gordon explores recent trade tensions and geopolitical risks that remain in the fore, but notes that low defaults, easing rate expectations, and improving sentiment continue to support a positive European story.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines early signals from UK and European consumer data. Gordon also explores Europe’s progress on the long-awaited Mercosur trade agreement and its strategic importance, as well as how European Union defence spending is beginning to translate into real economic activity.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews Europe’s start to the year. As the region faces a year of development, a stable start to the data presents a positive backdrop, which Gordon outlines in his recent article in the Business Post (link: https://www.businesspost.ie/analysis-opinion/gordon-kerr-why-ai-defence-and-trade-hold-the-key-to-europes-grow...

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews Europe’s standout year in credit markets—from record issuance to tight spreads—and explores the forces behind the strength. Gordon then outlines a ChatGPT synthesis of 60 industry outlooks to reveal the emerging consensus for 2026 and potential tail risks.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses two structural shifts facing Europe as 2026 approaches: Bulgaria’s entry into the euro area and the early stages of the Dutch pension transition. One adds institutional depth; the other may reshape flows, duration demand, and asset-allocation trends across the continent.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines rising fiscal and financial stability concerns across the UK and Europe, from the UK’s “buy now, pay later” budget to France’s tightening fiscal path. Gordon also discusses Bank of England and ECB [European Central Bank] research about the shifting risks in the private credit and insurance sectors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores Europe’s latest insolvency reform, Italy’s “golden power” dispute, and expectations for the UK’s upcoming budget. Together, they illustrate how regulation, politics, and fiscal credibility continue to shape Europe’s evolving credit landscape—offering both progress and persistent friction.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the powerful intersection of AI and energy—how data-centre expansion is reshaping electricity demand, the grid bottlenecks slowing Europe’s transition, and what that means for credit markets. He also discusses the UK economy, where policy uncertainty tests investor confidence ahead of the Budget.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the way AI is changing the economics of labour, productivity, and credit—fast. Gordon examines how that’s feeding into hiring freezes, pay restraint, and a surge in European private credit flows, and how that is impacting credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses the recent growth data, the surprising country standouts, and what is behind the momentum. Gordon also explores how investment themes could help to support the nascent growth in the region.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the signals behind the continent’s fragile recovery: what central banks are really saying, how European lenders are managing risk, and why cautious optimism may finally be warranted. Gordon explores what these crosscurrents mean for growth, credit, and investor sentiment across Europe and the UK.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, dives into the interplay between energy markets and European corporate credit. We explore how unusually low oil costs and a contango futures curve are signalling more than just margin relief. Gordon then unpacks recent earnings surprises in Europe, with a focus on forward guidance and changing expectations.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores some insight from the society of professional economists annual event. He further comments on developments from the Eurogroup ECOFIN meetings and covers some perspective on recent market volatility.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the views of chief economists across the globe. In particular, their views on the direction and potential for Europe. Gordon also reviews the developing situation in France and its impact on markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews recent business surveys from McKinsey and Lloyds. Their views provide some insight into the prospect for growth and employment in the months ahead. Further, Gordon adds some colour to the UK’s prospects out of the recent Labour Party conference.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews recent developments of the US-UK relationship following as a state visit from the US that brought new investment commitments. Further, Gordon highlights the region’s uneven path to recovery and the risks the China-US trade war is presenting to Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adcho...