Die ekonomie minuut

Die Reserwebank se monetêre beleidskomittee het vanmiddag aangekondig dat die repokoers en dus die primakoers onveranderd bly. Dit is na Augustusmaand se verbruikersprysinflasie effens gestyg het tot 4,9%, bo die middelpunt van die inflasiemikpunt van 3 tot 6%. Die goewerneur, Lesetja Kganyago het ʼn paar belangrike punte gemaak.

The Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee announced this afternoon that the repo rate and therefore the prime rate will remain unchanged. This is after August's consumer price inflation increased slightly to 4.9%, above the midpoint of the inflation target range of 3 to 6%. The governor, Lesetja Kganyago, made some important points.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown measures have been hotly debated over the past few days after Britain decided that South Africa should remain on their red list. Figures from the Bureau of Economic Research on exactly how much the tourism industry has suffered over the past 18 months are alarming.

Die impak van die Covid-19 pandemie en inperkingsmaatreels is die afgelope paar dae druk bespreek nadat Brittanje besluit het dat Suid-Afrika op hulle rooi-lys bly. Die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se syfers oor presies hoe swaar die toerismebedryf die afgelope 18 maande gekry het is skrikwekkend.

Net toe ek dink dat ek volg nou al die indekse, ontdek ek drie ander: FNB en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek sa sakevertroue-indeks vir siviele konstruksie-sektor, die Buro se kleinhandelaar-vertroue-indeks en AgBiz en die NOK se vertroue-indeks vir landboubesighede.

Just when I thought I am now following all the indices, I discovered three others: FNB and the Bureau of Economic Research has a business confidence index for the civil construction sector, the Bureau also has a retailer confidence index and AgBiz and the IDC's has a confidence index for agribusinesses.

The JSE struggled yesterday and the all-share index fell 2.24%. Could it have something to do with the Springboks?

Die JSE het gister swaar getrek en die indeks van alle aandele wat met 2,24% gedaal het. Het dit dalk iets te doen gehad met die Springbokke?

You have also probably noticed that an economist will not readily admit that he or she is surprised. If the repo rate stays the same, rises, or falls some economists will say, that it has already been priced in by the market. This week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting is one of those where economists expect the repo rate to remain unchanged, but they will also look closely for clues as to when...

Julle het ook seker al opgemerk dat ʼn ekonoom nie sommer sal erken hy of sy is verras nie. As die repo koers dieselfde bly, styg, of daal sal een of ander ekonoom sê, nee wat, dit is al ingeprys deur die mark. Hierdie week se Monetêre beleidskomittee vergadering is een van daardie waar ekonome verwag dat die repokoers onveranderd sal bly, maar hulle ook fyn sal kyk vir leidrade vir wanneer die Res...

This week's indicators shed light on what happened in July. In July we still had a level 4 lockdown and there were riots in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. This week's data on mining production, as well as wholesale and retail trade, tell us of that impact.

Hierdie week se aanwysers het lig gewerp op wat in Juliemaand gebeur het. Julie het nog ʼn vlak-4 inperking gehad en daar was die onluste in KwaZulu-Natal en Gauteng. Hierdie week se data oor mynbouproduksie, asook groot- en kleinhandel vertel van daardie impak.

The Economic Association of South Africa is having its biennial conference this week. I've heard a lot of interesting things and would like to share a few.

Die Ekonomiese Vereniging van Suid-Afrika hou hierdie week ons twee-jaarlikse konferensie. Ek het al ʼn klomp interessante dinge gehoor en wil graag ʼn paar deel.

Gister is die Amerikaanse verbruikersprysinflasiekoers vir Augustusmaand bekend gemaak en ekonome het hulle asems bietjie opgehou. Dit was toe ʼn klein oorwinning vir die wat glo dat die inflasie druk daar van ʼn verbygaande aard is. Hulle inflasie was toe 5,3%, effens laer as die 5,4% van Junie en Juliemaand.

Yesterday, the US consumer price inflation rate for August was announced and for a moment, economists held their breath. It turned out to be a small victory for those who believe that inflationary pressures there are transitory. Their inflation rate came in at 5.3% for August, slightly lower than the 5.4% of June and July.

When you try to explain or predict the exchange rate of the rand, you end up making political analysts and weather forecasters look good. Over the past week, the rand has strengthened against the dollar despite a long list of reasons why it should weaken.

As mens probeer om die wisselkoers van die rand te verklaar of voorspel, dan laat jy die politieke ontleders en weervoorspellers goed lyk. Die afgelope week het die rand versterk teen die dollar ten spyte van ʼn lang lys van redes hoekom dit moes verswak.

With last week's episodes on the GDP figures and economic growth, there was no chance to talk about the inflation target. The Governor of the Reserve Bank, Lesetja Kganyago, said in a speech that the target band of 3-6% could be replaced by a single point target of 3 or 4%. A margin of plus and minus 1 percentage point can be allowed. He argued that the target could be lowered with the cooperation...

Met verlede week se episodes oor die BBP syfers en ekonomiese groei was daar nie kans om te praat oor die inflasiemikpunt nie. Die Goewerneur van die Reserwebank, Lesetja Kganyago, het in ʼn toespraak gesê dat die mikpuntband van 3-6% vervang kan word deur ʼn enkele puntteiken van 3 of 4%. Daar kan wel ʼn marge van plus en minus 1 persentasiepunt toegelaat word. Hy het die argument gemaak dat die tei...

Overall, economists are excited about the strong economic growth in the second quarter. They expect the economy to return to pre-pandemic output levels by mid-2022. Yet much depends on the impact of the social unrest and riots in July, but third-quarter GDP data will only be published in December. In the meantime, we need to look at other clues.

Oor die algemeen is ekonome opgewonde oor die sterk ekonomiese groei in die tweede kwartaal. Hulle verwag dat die ekonomie sal terugkeer na die vlak van uitset voor die pandemie teen die middel van 2022. Baie hang af van die impak van die onluste in Juliemaand, maar die derde kwartaal se BBP data word eers in Desember gepubliseer. Intussen moet ons kyk na ander leidrade.

We know that the economy grew by 1.2% in the second quarter. Economists have divergent forecasts for the full year's growth rate. Johan Els of Old Mutual predicts 5.5% growth for 2021, in July the Reserve Bank still said 4.2% and Investec estimates it could be 3.9%. Prof Raymond Parsons makes the point that we really should not worry about growth this year. The Covid-19 pandemic was a demand- and...

Ons weet dat die ekonomie het met 1,2% gegroei in die tweede kwartaal. Ekonome se voorspellings van die groeikoers vir die hele jaar is uiteenlopend. Johan Els van Old Mutual voorspel 5,5% groei vir 2021, die Reserwebank het in Juliemaand gesê 4,2% en Investec reken dit kan 3,9% wees. Prof Raymond Parsons maak die punt dat ons eintlik glad nie bekoomerd moet wees oor groei hierdie jaar nie. Die Co...

GDP figures for the second quarter were released yesterday. As a technical point, it is important to note that after the recent revision, StatsSA no longer publishes an annualised growth rate, but only publishes the seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth rate. According to this measure, the economy grew by 1.2% in the second quarter.