Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

This week we take a look at the mortgage book across Aotearoa. In anticipation of further rate cuts from the RBNZ the book has shortened up with 81% of borrowers fixing for one year or less. It’s a gamble that’s paying off. Naturally, the question now turns to when borrowers should fix for longer. We give our two cents. The move to shorter-dated rates is also a large driver in why we expect a reco...

We're back from break and feeling good about 2025. In this episode, we cover our expectations for the Kiwi economy this year - a year of two halves. The first half sees the economy is in an awkward phase. Confidence has improved, but activity is still depressed. Growth however should pick up in the second half as interest rate cuts feed through to the economy. Things are falling into place for a b...

In the last episode of the year, Hamish Wilkinson is back to talk to Jarrod and Mary Jo about the Kiwi currency. They go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. They also throw Hamish a curly cross that makes him try to phone a friend...Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here:http...

Black Friday deals are everywhere, and it’s been hard to escape the ads since mid-November. But what’s the real impact on consumer behaviour? Join Kiwibank Economist Mary Jo Vergara as she unpacks the latest card spending data from Black Friday, offering valuable insights into spending patterns and what we can expect this festive season, including Boxing Day. Tune in for a deep dive into shifting...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 13th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is a detailed run-down of the Reserve Bank's November Monetary Policy Statement. Where are interest rates heading from here? And what does this mean for Kiwi households and businesses? They discuss it all. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 12th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi commercial property. Just like the housing market, commercial property has been hit hard by the Reserve Bank’s heavy handed hikes. But the downturn across commercial property goes beyond a story of high interest rates. Since Covid, and the lockdowns that followed, behavioural...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 11th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi housing market. As Kiwi, we're obsessed with housing and it has been volatile over the last few years. The Kiwibank Economists look deep into the data - from house prices, to listings, and days to sell - to talk about the latest moves in the housing market across Aotearoa. Hos...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 10th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. In this episode, the Economists are talking about the cooling Kiwi labour market. Weak economic activity following two years of recession is now resulting in job losses. They cover rising unemployment, where it's heading and what this means for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Plus, in line with the name of the...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 9th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.  In this episode they're talking about one of the biggest issues the world is facing right now. Climate change. More and more we’re seeing the effects of climate change in our daily life. Floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. They’re all becoming more frequent. So, what does this mean for the economy? The team have t...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their eighth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. The RBNZ was among the first and most aggressive central banks in hiking interest rates, post-Covid. But in a recent speech, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr signalled that they can be “more incremental” on the way down. This week, our Economists give their take on how incremental is incremental. This week they also...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their seventh episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team cover the cost of living crisis which has significantly impacted Kiwi households, particularly those with lower incomes. Everyday essentials like food and fuel have risen faster than incomes. While these households struggle with tight budgets, recent trends indicate a shift, with pay rises...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their sixth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team cover the RBNZ’s October policy decision and what that means for our growth forecasts. Later in the episode, Ross Weston, Head of Balance Sheet at Kiwibank joins the Economists to talk all about rates. They chat about how financial markets reacted to the RBNZ's 50bp rate cut, and how the sha...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their fifth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team are talking about the confidence of Kiwi business, and how it's evolving. Later in the episode, they're talking to Elliot Smith, Kiwibank's Chief Customer Officer – Business about what he's seeing, and what's happening in the broader economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrin...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their fourth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team are talking about New Zealand's largest trading partner - China and how the Chinese economy and the New Zealand economy are performing. Later in the episode, we'll hear from Hamish Wilkinson, one of our Senior FX Dealers at Kiwibank to talk about currency. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Ver...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their third episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. They're talking about the US Federal Reserve, a little bit about the Kiwi economy and how it's performed recently. Later in the episode we hear from Adrian Lodge, one of our Senior Dealers in our Financial Markets team at Kiwibank. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their econom...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their second episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team are talking about the massive migration flows we've seen in New Zealand over the last decade and about what this means for the economy. They'll also talk about a Kiwi favourite - housing. Later in the episode we'll hear from Mieneke Perniskie - FX Trader in our Financial Markets...

Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on the first episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. The team will delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Read more about the economic commentary & insights from our Kiwibank Economists here: ⁠https...