Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the bottom of the South Island, and everywhere in between, we’ve just wrapped up our annual deep dive into economic performance across the country. So how does your region stack up? For the most part, regions are performing better than last year. But th...

Inflation accelerated over the June quarter. But it wasn’t as bad as many had feared. And context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is driving headline higher. But domestic price pressures, on balance, continue to cool. It’s all about what’s really going on under the hood of the headline number. So, tune in as we break down the latest Kiwi inflation report. From what’s specifically dri...

After six straight meetings delivering rate cuts, the RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at their July meeting. So, what does it all mean? Is this the end of the cutting cycle? Or is it really just a pause? And why pause now? What will influence the August decision?... We’re diving into all the questions you might have following last week’s decision. Policymakers around the globe are still grapplin...

Greg Byrne, General Manager of Commercial Banking, joins us on this week’s episode to share insights into how Kiwi businesses are faring in the current climate. Optimism for the months ahead continues to grow, but the recession scars are still fresh. Cost pressures have eased but remain elevated. All the while firms' pricing power has diminished. It’s a combination that continues to squeeze an...

Our Financial Markets Trader, Mieneke Perniskie, joins us on this week’s episode to dive into the world of currency. Recent events and headlines suggest the Kiwi should be in the 50s. Yet here we are with the bird close to breaching 61c. Broader themes are in play. Some are calling it Judgement Day for the US dollar. We discuss why that view is a tad bit dramatic. But it’s not all about the Kiwi d...

We’re seeing a short-term spike in inflation right now. Food prices have reaccelerated, household energy costs are climbing, and rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing around global oil prices . These days it feels like there is cost pressure after cost pressure hitting households and businesses. All while growth is rather lacklustre. The word “stagflation” has been circulating both here a...

We’ve just refreshed our forecasts for the Kiwi economy.  And by no surprises, heightened global uncertainty and a likely slowdown in global trade has seen us downgrade our profile for Kiwi growth. So what does that mean for parts of the economy? We unpack our latest forecasts for the housing market, interest rates, inflation, and the labour market. You may be thinking how do you even forecast in...

It’s a US special this week. We know. These days most of our episodes already touch on some aspect of what’s going on over in the States, but this week we’re looking at some of the latest high frequency data out of the US to see how things are holding up amid tariff turmoil and friendship fallouts. We’ve seen a front loading of activity in anticipation of tariffs. And we may now be seeing the star...

Hawkish here, dovish there. There was a bit of everything in the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement. And we’re delving into all the details...Now, if you just read the statement, the RBNZ’s easing bias was strengthened.  The economic forecasts were lowered, and another 25bp rate cut was inserted into the OCR track. But if you listened to the press conference or noted the dissentin...

Ever wondered what it’s like in the day of a life as an economist on a major data release day? Well, consider this week's episode your backstage pass to Budget 2025. We’re talking through our experience at the Budget lock up in Banquet Hall. Everything from our rapid analysis, to even our (sad) lunch experience. We break down Treasury's new forecasts and delve into some of the new policies...

This is an episode you don’t want to miss! We’re joined by Steve Bonnici, Managing Director of Urgent Couriers, for some great insights on the courier and logistics industry and what it tells us about the broader economy. As Steve aptly puts it, rapid delivery services serve as a bellwether for the economy. When the market shifts, they’re the first to experience it. So, what’s the industry signall...

This week we’re delving into the details of the latest Kiwi labour market report. The scars of the recession we’ve been through are still raw with every indicator in the unemployment report pointing to weakness. And youth are bearing the brunt of it. We break down the numbers and explore how they’re feeding into the broader inflation outlook. Plus, what it all means for monetary policy. Spoiler: i...

In this week’s episode we’re joined by David Moore, Kiwibank's Head of Corporate and Wholesale Credit, to discuss the ongoing uncertain environment. As economists we love to talk through scenarios. We’re always considering the upside and downside risks when forming our view. David however tends to pitch his tent in camp downside...Tune in as we cover the latest on business appetite, credit dyn...

We’re back after a week off, and we’re still sitting, waiting, wishing for tariff de-escalation. Trade talks remain underway between several countries and the US. But any announcements are yet to be seen. And no one knows if the US trade talks with China have started. Trump says they have. China says they haven’t. We’re stuck in limbo. Time is of the essence, and the clock is ticking. The longer n...

The US’s reciprocal tariffs have been put on ice for 90 days. Several countries are coming to the negotiating table. It’s still incredibly difficult to say with any certainty what will result. But we take a crack at mapping three possible paths that the global economy could take from here. We unpack what each scenario could mean for the state of our economy, including the implications for central...

We’re delving into the aftershock of Trump’s Obliteration, sorry Liberation, Day. Markets are in mayhem with HUGE drops across equities, commodity currencies and interest rates. The so-called reciprocal tariffs were worse than feared, especially for emerging Asia. The focus is now on retaliatory action. And China is already striking back. Things have only just begun. We were joined by Kiwibank Tre...

Our Financial Markets Trader Mieneke Perniskie joins us on this week’s episode to talk all about currency. Our call on the Kiwi hitting 55c played out largely as we had thought. And we’re now looking to an eventual climb to 60c by year end. The here and now though sees the NZD rangebound at current levels with growing global downside risks. But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also...

We know, we know! Why are we still talking about 2024? Well, we promise this is the last time (maybe). We recently received the latest economic report card. And given it shows us crawling out of recession, we figured it was worth covering the first step in the Kiwi economy’s recovery. We take a closer look at the industries driving growth, as well as those that are still facing challenges. But let...

This week’s episode is all about Kiwi trade. Specifically, looking at the positive movement we saw in our terms of trade at the end of last year. Higher meat and dairy export prices, strong production, and a favourable NZ dollar should provide a meaningful boost to export earnings and incomes for our farmers and rural regions. Looking to our export services, tourism levels have also edged their wa...

The same uncertainty and volatility from Trump 2.0 that is causing big swings in wholesale rates is also wreaking havoc across equities. We were very fortunate to have Mike Taylor, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Pie Funds, join us on a special bonus episode to discuss his view on equity markets. And strategies to navigate investing in these volatile times. It's a jam-packed episode. W...

Ross Weston, Kiwibank Head of Balance Sheet, is back on the podcast and it’s another jam-packed episode. In the wake of Trump 2.0, global uncertainty is dominating headlines and markets. Wholesale interest rates have seen big swings up and down. Beyond that, we cover expectations of future RBNZ meetings. Always one step ahead, market traders are already looking beyond the current cutting cycle and...

The housing market is prepped, primed and positioned for a pick up. Interest rates are the biggest driver of moves in the market. But recent changes to the Brightline test, CCCFA, interest deductibility and so on should also help investors off the sideline. The RBNZ also tinkered with its macroprudential toolkit easing up its handbrake on credit growth. We go through each key change and its likely...

The RBNZ cut the cash rate to 3.75%, and signalled more cuts to come. With inflation now stabilising, the economy needs relief. In this episode, we run through the RBNZ’s latest policy statement and fresh forecasts. The Kiwi economy is set to recover this year, but there remains key uncertainties. There are signs of improvement in more timely activity indicators, but the balance of risks to the ou...

This week we’re diving into the power of inflation expectations. History has proven expectations of inflation are self-reinforcing. Expect low inflation and low inflation you shall receive. Expect high inflation and high inflation it is. The great news is that here at home, inflation expectations are freshly anchored at the RBNZ 2% sweet spot. We discuss the importance of the move, and how it shou...

Unemployment is higher, employment growth remains in contraction, workers are being forced to the exits, and even total hours worked are in decline. The labour market continues to soften. We're delving into the details, including the demographic and the industry breakdown on who felt the brunt of the labour market slow down over 2024. With 32,000 jobs lost, there’s a lot of pain out there. Most of...