Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

Oil prices have returned to pre-war levels. The market expects the price of Dubai crude to remain between $60-70 US/barrel through to the end of the decade. The rosier oil picture lowers medium term inflation risk and reinforces our call: hold the OCR and give the economy breathing room. Read more about our call in our mid-year outlook note. We're cautiously optimistic that AI will enhance New...

We look back in time (one week) and so much has changed. We almost had a peace deal to celebrate. Oil prices dropped on hopes the deal would hold. As always, we speculate on the next move in markets, given the uncertain territory we have to navigate. The first quarter of the year and the GDP results which printed higher than expected. A stronger starting point for the year means that the demand de...

The Reserve Bank’s official cash rate is meant to help keep the Kiwi economy stable. We talk about the optimal cash rate and make some calls with Kiwibank Rates Trader, Graham Hughes. International rates have an impact on the Kiwi through currency moves. Rates differentials between NZ and Aussie are no exception. A move higher in Kiwi rates at a time when the Aussies have finished hiking could dri...

We have some market mayhem to discuss, the US payroll data printed higher than expected, sending the S&P500 down 2% in a single day. We talk about the Fed and the RBNZ and much more. The AI bubble is still propping up the US share markets, but a lot of funding is being syphoned out of other areas to feed the AI machine. When will we actually see the efficiencies and profits boom off the back o...

A big week of information to reflect on. The OCR and the Budget 2026 both out last week. Neither extremely surprising, but both giving us (and markets) plenty to digest. We dive into the forecasting scenarios of the RBNZ and Treasury. One side is too pessimistic, the other too optimistic. We feel like Goldilocks trying to find the one that’s just right. Uncertainty is still the word of the day – p...

Special guest alert! Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, PhD candidate at AUT and researcher at the NZ Policy Research Institute, joins us to talk about the tertiary sector. Education uptake and economic conditions are counter-cyclical. When the economy is down, enrolment in education goes up, and vice versa. In the middle of an oil crisis and off the back of two years of recession, enrolment should be s...

We’ve got a very special guest joining us in this episode. We talk about the financial market mayhem, currencies, and what it all means for Kiwi customers and the economy. Tim Olphert is the head of our financial markets team and has been with Kiwibank for a year. Tim has 25 years of experience in executive leadership in banking and finance. There’s a lot of pain in the economy right now. And inte...

How long will the war in the Middle East go on for? Oil price is one thing, supply is what we’re really worried about. But worryingly, the menu has changed. No more TACO, now we have NACHO. Not a chance Hormuz opens. We talk about the labour market data report card. It’s not good. Underutilisation is still high, 13%, but that slack in the labour market puts downward pressure on wages, and therefor...

The conflict in the Middle East is keeping us in limbo. We’re waiting for things to change. The fuel shortage we were bracing for seems less likely now. But we still have to face the prices. We have a wholesale rates market pricing in three rate hikes by October. More hawkish than the most hawkish economists – but calls for rate hikes risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. While we wait, we loo...

Our inflation forecasts are on point, but we aren’t celebrating. CPI numbers out this week tell an uncomfortable story. Inflation at 3.1% is just above the RBNZ’s target band (again), with no big downside surprises to help ease cost pressures. It’s painful to see the cost of essentials make another jump. Kiwi households struggling with the cost-of-living didn’t need food costs (fruits, vegetables...

The recent cyclone has us thinking about climate change, flood maps, and insurance risk. Flood insurance is one of those administered costs that has shot up over the years, and we don’t see it reversing, if anything it’s getting worse. Trump’s failed peace talks over the weekend have us worried about inflation and most importantly, how Kiwi businesses are meant to weather yet another punch in the...

He’s back again, our reoccurring special guest Hamish Wilkinson (aka Wiklie), Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, joins us to talk currencies and uncertainties in global markets. The war in the Middle East is ramping up or winding down, we aren’t really sure. But we speculate about what it means for the Kiwi economy. We’re especially worried about what a diesel shortage could to ou...

We’re sitting down to talk about the current events in the Middle East. (And hope that nothing we say becomes (too) dated in the 48-hours it takes us to hit publish on the episode.) The main point of discussion being the move higher we’ve seen in wholesale rates recently. We reference an upcoming speech from Governor Breman throughout the episode which we’ve now heard and reflected on. And you can...

Bringing external guests onto our podcast always makes for some of the best conversations. And our chat with Dan Heyworth, owner and co-founder of Box Design and Build, was no exception. We’ve been wanting to get some more on the ground insights on all things housing and construction. And having Dan on the show was the perfect guest to unpack how the sector is really fairing, the challenges the in...

We need to talk… about the war in the Middle East and the impacts on the global and Kiwi economy. Shipping traffic remains at a standstill at one of the world’s most strategically important oil choke points. And to no surprise, we’ve seen a massive spike in oil prices throughout the last week. With such disruptions, a near term lift in global and kiwi inflations is all but a done deal. But central...

We’ve sat down to discuss all about the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. February’s meeting was the first of the year, and first for new Governor Anna Breman. And we have to say she did a great job in delivering a sensible, simple message. That being: The economy is in its early stages of recovery, settings need to remain accommodative, and inflation is going back to 2%. It’s our sentiment...

It’s a bit of a mix and match episode this week. We start with discussing the ugly move higher across inflation expectations. Then switch to the latest stats on the PMI and PSI activity indicators. And later end up talking about one of, if not the biggest challenges facing the Kiwi economy: an aging population. An aging population certainly isn’t a new problem. We even joke on the podcast about a...

This week we’ve delved into the latest labour market stats. A fitting topic as we farewell MJ on her last episode on the podcast and her time at Kiwibank. We also talk about what we’ve seen in our own hiring process The headline unemployment rate has lifted from 5.3% to 5.4%. At first glance, the move doesn’t look good. But beneath the bonnet, there’s encouraging signs that the appetite for labour...

The gold rush has gone bust. We’ve seen a savage sell off in precious metals, just after seeing some shiny record highs. Kevin Warsh becoming the next US Fed chair has removed much of the fear within markets around diminished Fed independence. Markets are still digesting the news of Trump’s pick for Fed chair. Warsh has a reputation as a monetary hawk. And despite recently supporting lower near-te...

New year, and we're back at it! Kicking us off - hot inflation. To a bit of dismay, Kiwi inflation ended 2025 above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. The lift in headline inflation is a frustration. But it’s the dirty details, from sticky domestic inflation to stubborn underlying inflation that are of most concern. There was overall more broad-based strength than we expected across prices in the De...

We’ve pulled out the crystal ball, quite literally, and gazed deep into the mists to see what 2026 has in store for the Kiwi economy! Our inner mystics have come out to play. We’ve updated our forecasts and the future is bright. We continue to forecast a robust recovery. The settings are about right. Even with a frustrating rise in retail rates. A premature move sparked by a sell off in wholesale...

From spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwibank card data to see just how much Kiwi spent and what they spent it on this Black Friday. And of course, by Black Friday, we really mean the whole month of November with sales kicking off well before the official calendar date This year, it looks like Kiwi...

Is this the end of the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle? We think (and hope) it is. In this episode we’re diving right into the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. A 2.25% cash rate looks to be the bottom. That’s good news. Policy settings are now more supportive of a recovery in 2026. After 325bps of rate cuts, the RBNZ appear more confident in the economic outlook. Positive data following the RB...

In this episode, we’re joined by Kiwibank Treasurer Belinda Newman to unpack the current lending landscape and the state of credit demand across New Zealand... Activity remains mixed across sectors and regions. There’s still pockets of activity in the South Island, especially as farmers benefit from a weaker currency. But there’s a clear preference to pay down debt as the share of non-performing a...

In part two of our Phillips Curve double-header, we’re diving into inflation—but not in the usual way. This time, we’re looking through the lens of Stats NZ’s Household Living-Costs Price Index, which breaks down inflation across 13 different demographic groups, offering a more detailed view of inflation experiences across Kiwi households. And here’s where it gets interesting, because inflation is...