Marty

World at Odds

Leisure EN ↓ 8 episodes

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident? The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

Author

Marty

Episodes

World at Odds Episode08 | Polymarket's Hidden Fees, Senate Paradox & Belgium at 50-to-1 10.05.2026 31:53

Andrew's up 150% on the year — but sitting in all cash with nothing to bet on. Matt walks through his best opportunities right now: Democrats to take the House at 83¢, hantavirus at 10¢, the aliens bet, and Ken Paxton's Texas Senate runoff. Then we get into the real stuff: how to actually make consistent money on Polymarket. Bet what you know, chase reward markets, use limit orders, and th...

World at Odds Episode07 | Masters Meltdown, World Cup Basket Strategy, Alien Market Glitches, Andrew Becomes a Weatherman, & NHL Playoff Picks 26.04.2026 31:50

Matt and Andrew return to break down their Masters disasters — Andrew had the winner (McIlroy at 7¢) and sold him drunk on pasta in Italy, while Matt lost 8 units betting against him. They unpack the "equal shares under a dollar" strategy and apply it to the 2026 World Cup, where the entire field's overround is just 2.2%. Matt reveals a compounding "money glitch" on the ali...

Odds Episode06 | Polymarket Fees, Democrat Nomination Arbs, Masters Picks, SpaceX Ticker Bet, & Still Undefeated 05.04.2026 38:59

Polymarket drops trading fees — we break down what it means for takers and makers. Matt reveals his "free money" strategy buying the entire Democratic 2028 field for a guaranteed ROI, and we both lock in our Masters golf picks ahead of next weekend. Plus: our SpaceX ticker symbol bet (X vs. Other), Final Four profit updates, a Lyon mayoral election win, and the birth of ESUaD — Equal Sha...

World at Odds Episode05 | Still Undefeated, Kalshi v. Arizona, World Baseball Classic Arbs, & French Mayoral Elections 21.03.2026 25:41

Still undefeated. Five for five on resolved bets — including Tim nailing the Oscars Best Picture pick from Episode 2. This week we dig into the prediction market industry itself: Kalshi just raised a billion dollars at a $22B valuation while simultaneously getting sued in Arizona. Is it a prediction market or a gambling operation? Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi are both catching heat over "...

World at Odds Episode04 | AI Trading Fails, Texas Election Edge, Masters Arbitrage 07.03.2026 44:06

In this episode of World at Odds, Andrew and I try to build AI trading bots for Polymarket. The experiment does not go well. One bot immediately nukes a bankroll by selling 93-cent shares for one cent. Good reminder that AI still needs adult supervision. We also break down a prediction market edge in the Texas Senate primary, where understanding runoff rules created a pricing opportunity most trad...

World at Odds Episode03 | Iran, Aliens, AI Bots 02.03.2026 31:19

Episode03: back with co-host Andrew. We explore some +EV bets on Iran, aliens (probably), and how to get started with bots...

OddsOn Episode02 | Betting for Newbies, Kid Rock, Mid Terms 15.02.2026 22:10

Thanks to guest Tim Williams and especially to Kid Rock and Turning Point USA for making today's episode possible.

OddsOn Episode01 | Super Bowl LX, Greenland, 2028 Election 08.02.2026 32:33

The first episode! OddsOn: let's gamble on anything. Covered today: Greenland, 2028 US Presidential Election, and Super Bowl LX. A special thanks to Andrew Genung for co-hosting . And a huge thank you to Steven H for always keeping me accountable to do this! This one is dedicated to you, sir.