World at Odds

The midterms are tomorrow and this episode is all politics. No sports. Well, one Raiders bet, because Andrew can't help himself. The main event: I'm calling a Democratic sweep. House and Senate. Which is awkward, because back in Episode 9 I bet the other way at 40 cents. I sold that at 28 and put a lot more on the opposite side. I'm not betting on what Polymarket says, I'm betting...

Episode 12. Andrew and I both forgot we were recording today, so we're doing this one off the cuff. Week 1 went pretty well. I went 4-2 on our official bets, and Andrew hit a 3-leg parlay that he'll admit a good trader probably maybe shouldn't have placed. Meanwhile the Dolphins looked so bad that I'm saying 0-17 out loud now. Then we get into politics. The generic congressional ba...

The NFL starts in a week and this episode is NFL only. No politics. **Update, Sept 10: Two changes to my Week 1 spreads. I didn't take Seattle -3.5 in the end. I copied Andrew's Ravens -3.5 at the Colts instead** The main event: 3 Super Bowl baskets, scored against each other all season . Andrew built an 8-team basket and learned the real name for the strategy from a guy who works in sport...

Ten episodes in, which by podcasting standards makes us middle-aged. The NFL is twelve days out, the World Cup is done, and the midterms are close enough to start piling on. The main event: Matt thinks the Detroit Lions are the most mispriced team on the board. Vegas has them at double-digit wins and one of the softest schedules in the league. Polymarket has them around 4.2 cents, roughly 24-to-1,...

We're back , and it's midterms season. After a long summer hiatus (Matt got his tonsils out at an age where you really shouldn't, Andrew watched wildebeest get eaten in Tanzania), we return to Matt's favorite thing to bet on: the 2026 midterm elections on Polymarket. The main event: the weird gap in the markets right now. Eight of the ten closest Senate races lean Democrat, and Rep...

Andrew's up 150% on the year — but sitting in all cash with nothing to bet on. Matt walks through his best opportunities right now: Democrats to take the House at 83¢, hantavirus at 10¢, the aliens bet, and Ken Paxton's Texas Senate runoff. Then we get into the real stuff: how to actually make consistent money on Polymarket. Bet what you know, chase reward markets, use limit orders, and th...

Matt and Andrew return to break down their Masters disasters — Andrew had the winner (McIlroy at 7¢) and sold him drunk on pasta in Italy, while Matt lost 8 units betting against him. They unpack the "equal shares under a dollar" strategy and apply it to the 2026 World Cup, where the entire field's overround is just 2.2%. Matt reveals a compounding "money glitch" on the ali...

Polymarket drops trading fees — we break down what it means for takers and makers. Matt reveals his "free money" strategy buying the entire Democratic 2028 field for a guaranteed ROI, and we both lock in our Masters golf picks ahead of next weekend. Plus: our SpaceX ticker symbol bet (X vs. Other), Final Four profit updates, a Lyon mayoral election win, and the birth of ESUaD — Equal Sha...

Still undefeated. Five for five on resolved bets — including Tim nailing the Oscars Best Picture pick from Episode 2. This week we dig into the prediction market industry itself: Kalshi just raised a billion dollars at a $22B valuation while simultaneously getting sued in Arizona. Is it a prediction market or a gambling operation? Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi are both catching heat over "...

In this episode of World at Odds, Andrew and I try to build AI trading bots for Polymarket. The experiment does not go well. One bot immediately nukes a bankroll by selling 93-cent shares for one cent. Good reminder that AI still needs adult supervision. We also break down a prediction market edge in the Texas Senate primary, where understanding runoff rules created a pricing opportunity most trad...

Episode03: back with co-host Andrew. We explore some +EV bets on Iran, aliens (probably), and how to get started with bots...

Thanks to guest Tim Williams and especially to Kid Rock and Turning Point USA for making today's episode possible.

The first episode! OddsOn: let's gamble on anything. Covered today: Greenland, 2028 US Presidential Election, and Super Bowl LX. A special thanks to Andrew Genung for co-hosting . And a huge thank you to Steven H for always keeping me accountable to do this! This one is dedicated to you, sir.