Wilmington Mortgage with Tyler Cralle

Rates rose slightly on FOMC minutes that showed that while the board is happy with the economy, they need more proof before they lower rates. Despite new tariffs, the trade deficit ended the year close to all-time highs. In an unrelated topic, Tyler breaks down the amazing gift that is air travel. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to b...

It was a slow start to the week with the bond markets closed for President’s Day, so we reminisced about how great last week was for rates. It’s a busy week ahead with building data, FOMC minutes, and GDP growth. And Nick Timiraos writes about the potential for a soft landing. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit...

It was another good day for rates as the 10-year fell to a two-month low. We just don’t know why it happened. Jobless claims were slightly worse than expected and existing-home sales fell to a 16-month low to start 2026, but neither report would really explain the drop in rates This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit...

Retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December and were down year-over-year when adjusted for inflation. Total household debt rose along with delinquencies, but it was not as bad as some want you to think. Slower consumer spending could lead to looser monetary policy and lower rates. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes...

Nick Timiraos says no rate cuts at Wednesday’s meeting and no one knows when they will start again, the dollar falls as foreign investors grow concerned about US policy, and consumer confidence plummets to an 11-year low to start 2026… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Durable goods orders jumped 5.3% in November (the best month since May), a new report finds that AI spending was the biggest driver of economic growth in 2025, and the markets prepare for Fed week… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Mortgage rates rose slightly as Japan’s financial problems exacerbated ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Retail sales jumped in December, but the report showed signs of a slowdown. Producer price growth was minimal, but the report did have some caution flags. And existing-home sales jumped to an almost-three year hugh as rates fell and home price growth slowed. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage....

A return to a more typical mortgage day, with rates holding steady after the final CPI report came in slightly better than expected, though not without a few caution flags. Meanwhile, new home sales unexpectedly stayed near three-year highs, driven largely by continued strength in the South. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus e...

SUMMARY: Mortgage rates moved lower after President Trump said last week that he was directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Late Sunday, news broke that the Department of Justice had opened a criminal inquiry into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Markets largely brushed off the development on Monday, but the investigation could become a fac...

SUMMARY: Rates rose slightly on Thursday, as jobless claims rose to start 2026. Despite the rise, jobless claims were at the third-lowest level in the last 12 months. The trade deficit fell to a 16-year low as tariffs continue to make imports unattractive… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.su...

SUMMARY: President Donald Trump sent the housing sector into a tizzy as he tweeted that he wanted to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes to help with affordability. Rates fell slightly as job openings fell to the lowest level in 13 months and private payrolls came in under economist projections. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with oth...

SUMMARY: The slowest news day of the year left mortgage rates essentially unchanged, but it did create space to focus on an unusual fight in New York City, where the city is attempting to block the sale of bankrupt rent-stabilized apartment buildings on the grounds that the properties are incapable of generating a profit. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subsc...

SUMMARY: Bond yields fall slightly as investors seek the safety of bonds as global unrest ramps up after the US removed Nicolas Maduro from power in Venezuela. The final manufacturing report of 2025 shows activity remaining in contraction territory for the 10th straight month. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit...

SUMMARY: Two jobs reports give one picture of a weakening labor market, retail sales fail to keep pace with inflation, and it looks like Chris Waller is back in the hunt for possible Fed chair... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

SUMMARY: Rates rose last week as markets realized the Fed rate cut cycle was ending and might not start up again until mid-2026, and it’s a busy week for data as we get three central bank decisions, two jobs reports, one inflation report in a pear tree... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.sub...

SUMMARY: While job openings rose slightly to a 6-month high, quits fell to the lowest level since April 2020, highlighting that workers do not feel good about the current labor market. PLUS: Nick Timiraos writes in the journal that Powell is likely to secure a cut at this meeting, but no one knows what could happen in 2026... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other s...

SUMMARY: Inflation data was mixed on Friday as consumer sentiment rose for the first time since July. PLUS: Bond yields are rising heading into a Fed cut, which is the exact opposite reaction of markets as we headed into September and October’s meeting... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.sub...

SUMMARY: Rates hold as economic data shows an economy that is stabilizing, and the conforming loan limit rises to $832,750 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

SUMMARY: Retail sales were lower than expected and consumer confidence fell to an 8-month low, which pushed down rates as investors believe a December rate cut is likely now. In other news, PPI was higher than expected, pending home sales were better than expected, and Kevin Hasset is now the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell in May... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this...

SUMMARY: Fed officials make the case for a December rate cut, and markets react. The Economist asks if the mortgage markets overcorrected after 2008, and have lending standards gotten too strict? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

SUMMARY: Rates were down last week as consumer sentiment sank to a three-year low, markets are preparing for a short but busy week, and Bill Pulte had a bad November... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

SUMMARY: We finally have jobs data! September’s non-farm payroll showed a big jump in jobs created but underlying concerns about the labor market are lurking. Also, existing-home sales jumped to an eighth-month high... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com