Wilmington Mortgage with Tyler Cralle

On Sunday, President Trump said he would protect certain ships in the Strait of Hormuz to bring some stability to the region. In response, Iran attacked US ships and UAE facilities, causing more instability, which caused oil prices to rise, which in turn pushed rates up. In other news, Jeanine Pirro decided not to appeal a judicial ruling against her subpoenas of the Federal Reserve, and whatever...

It was a busy day for economic data! Economic growth was hotter than expected in the first quarter, inflation came in hotter than expected, and jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1969. However, none of this data moved the rates. Rates fell because oil markets calmed down after a spike on Wednesday. In other news, debt hit 100% of GDP and while that is not an issue now, it will be sooner...

The Fed announced they were holding rates for the third straight meeting. However, there were four dissents. Stephen Mirran wanted a rate cut, but the other 3 were because they weren't happy with the statement. Housing starts jumped to a 14-month high, and durable goods orders were better than expected. However, none of that caused rates to jump; that was because of rising oil prices... This is a...

Gas prices hit a 4-year high as Iran and the US seem no closer to a peace deal, and Iran is struggling to find somewhere to store its oil as the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to work. The UAE announced they were leaving OPEC so they can produce more oil, consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped to a 6-month high, and home price growth fell to an almost three-year low. This is a publ...

On Friday, the Department of Justice announced they were dropping the investigation into the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell, which allowed Senator Thom Tillis to drop his no vote in the banking committee to push Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the floor of the Senate for a full vote. In other news, consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level in 70 years, and it’s a busy week for data as four centr...

Jobless claims rise slightly and don't have a big impact on rates. Joseph C. Sternberg has a great piece in the WSJ about Kevin Warsh and his possible tenure at the Federal Reserve. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Slow news days kept rates unchanged. Inflation in the U.K. rose as expected, mortgage demand jumped as rates fell to a 1-month low, and chaos in the Strait of Hormuz kept peace talks on ice between Iran and the U.S. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates rose on Tuesday as retail sales jumped because of higher gas prices, Kevin Warsh’s hearing went as expected, pending home sales rose more than expected, and peace talks broke down between the US and Iran. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, released prepared remarks before his hearing on Tuesday that argued that Fed independence is “essential” but noted that “Fed independence is largely up to the Fed.” In other news: Iran throws out mixed signals on peace talks, and it’s a slow week for economic data. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with o...

Rates rose again on manufacturing data out of Philadelphia that was similar to the NY data, which showed activity rising along with upward price pressure. In other news, jobless claims fell more than expected as the labor market holds steady and President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get...

Rates rose on Wednesday after the New York manufacturing report showed activity unexpectedly rising with some upside price pressure. In other news, President Trump threatened to fire Jerome Powell…again and homebuilder confidence fell to a 7-month low. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substa...

Markets welcomed a 0.5% producer price increase in March, while it was not good, it was much better than economists had expected. In other news, the success of the U.S. blockade could end the war sooner than some thought and Scott Bessent backs the Fed holding rates steady. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wil...

Rates fell and equities climbed as the markets reacted positively to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as analysts believe this will force a peace deal sooner rather than later. In other news, existing-home sales fell more than expected in March, and the White House’s economic report argues that the US is 10 million homes underbuilt… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss...

President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran that would postpone any new attacks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as they work out a long-term peace plan. Markets welcomed the news as stock futures jumped and bond yields fell. It was also a good day for rates as the latest report on consumer inflation expectations showed no change on mid and long-term inflation projections and durable goo...

Rates fell to start the week thanks to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explaining why the Fed is not worried about a short-term spike in oil prices. However, he did explain that if oil prices stay high for a longer period, it could impact consumer sentiment, which could force the Fed to act. In other news , Japan ramps up its investments in the US housing market and the markets prepare for...

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

After a horrific Friday for rates, bond yields fell on the news that the US and Iran could be nearing a deal. Iran shrugged off the claims but markets still took it as good news as the 10-year fell five basis points and equity markets jumped. In other news, construction spending fell to start 2026. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to...

Rates were basically unchanged for the day despite some concern out of Europe. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both warned of inflation risks because of the Iran conflict which lead investors to think rate hikes could actually be in the future. In other news: New home sales plummeted to start 2026 which took many by surprise and Nick Timiraos writes about how Trump’s pressure on...

The Federal Reserve Announced they were hoding rates, as expected, but they were much more dovish about the confict in the Middle East than many observers were expecting. However, markets still weren;t happy, as bond yields jumped after Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. However, the jump could have been caused by the dismal PPI report that showed producer price increases jumping much high...

SUMMARY: Rates fell for the second straight day as we head into a Fed meeting, Nick Timiraos writes that markets should keep an eye on the Fed dot plot from this next meeting, pending home sales unexpectedly rise in February, and a fake mortgage rate quote made its way around Twitter today… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus ep...

Rates fell for the first time in a week on optimism about oil markets, manufacturing activity slows in New York, homebuilder confidence rises, and it's a busy week for central banks across the world... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Oil markets calm down after President Trump announces protections for ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, which calms down equity & bond markets. Bond markets also look to the cost of a prolonged conflict and what that could mean for the US fiscally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgag...

Wilmington’s apartment growth since 2020 is second in the nation, only behind Huntsville, Alabama. However, even with that growth, median rents are still up 24% since pre-pandemic levels. Jobless claims held steady and Freddie Mac had mortgage rates also falling under 6.0%, slightly below Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year index. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other su...

It was a boring day for bond markets after the two major economic reports came in as expected. Consumer confidence rose to a 4-month high, but after falling to a 14-year low they really only had one direction to move. Home price growth continued to slow to close out 2025. And all eyes are on Washington as the President will give his first State of the Union in his second term. This is a public epi...

Rates fall to a 3-year low as global markets react to the Supreme Court decision striking down IEEPA powers that the Trump administration was using to implement most of the tariffs. President Trump announced on Friday that he would put a 10% tariff on all foreign imports, which he later increased to 15% over the weekend. This new tariff is confusing global markets, which is causing rates to fall....