Wilmington Mortgage with Tyler Cralle

Rates plummeted to a 6-week low as oil prices continued to fall thanks to more activity in the Strait of Hormuz. In other news, President Trump canceled the bill signing for a bipartisan housing bill, and new home sales fell to the lowest level since January. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage...

Rates were basically unchanged as Iran negotiations seem to be going nowhere. In other news, Russia is trying to pressure Belarus to get involved in its war with Ukraine, and the Treasury auction for 2-year notes was better than expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates rise on murkiness about the Iran peace deal and the announcement that Keir Starmer is resigning as Prime Minister, which marks the 7th PM in a decade. In other news, Alan Greenspan, the longest-serving Federal Reserve Chairman who was appointed by four presidents, died at the age of 100 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus...

Mortgage rates moved higher following Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, though it would be difficult to place the blame solely on the new Fed chief. The market's attention quickly shifted to the Fed's updated rate projections, where nine of the nineteen policymakers now expect at least one rate hike this year, up from none just three months ago. Investors were clearly...

As signs emerged that the Iran war may be winding down, financial markets responded positively. Oil prices plunged, stocks climbed to new record highs, and bond yields moved lower, helped further by a surprisingly strong 20-year Treasury auction that drew solid investor demand. The news wasn't entirely positive, however. The housing sector showed renewed signs of weakness as housing starts fell to...

While bond futures fell more than 6 basis points to start the day, they closed almost back to Friday's close after uncertainty about the Iran deal began to emerge. In other news, Homebuilder confidence fell to the second-lowest level in the last nine months and manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in New York. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subsc...

Rates fell after President Donald Trump announced a possible deal with Iran, producer prices rose like CPI because of energy spikes, and the 30-year treasury auction was not very good... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Inflation rose to 4.2% in May, the highest annual rate in three years, but the report wasn't quite as alarming as the headline number suggested. Nearly 60% of the monthly increase came from energy prices, as higher oil and gasoline costs continued to ripple through the economy. President Trump praised the report, saying he "loved the inflation," arguing that most of the increase was tied to energy...

Existing-home sales reached the highest level in 2026, tensions rise in the Middle East, and a new report says Social Security is going to be insolvent sooner than originally thought. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates jumped on Friday after the monthly non-farm payroll report came in much hotter than expected. However, there is some good news as consumer inflation expectations were better than expected and the U.S. government could run a slightly smaller budget deficit in 2026. Looking ahead, it's a very busy week for economic data with two inflation reports and an ECB decision. This is a public episode....

Rates continued the roller coaster with a slight dip on Thursday, thanks to a higher-than-expected jump in jobless claims. In other news, Zelensky sends an open letter to Putin to end the war, Hezbollah rejects the ceasefire with Israel, and Elon is on the verge of becoming a trillionaire. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus epi...

Rates rose on Wednesday after Ukraine hit Russia and Iran hit Kuwait & Bahrain. In other news, private payrolls saw the biggest gain in 16 months, bond traders are pricing in a rate hike before the end of the year, and sellers are delisting their homes at the fastest rate in 13 years... strengthng This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to b...

A new report shows a strengthening manufacturing sector in May, job openings jump to a 17-month high while quits fall to a 6-year low, inflation rises in Europe as energy prices soar, and Trump and Netanyahu disagree on how to end the Iran war... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates fall for the third day in a row after inflation data shows price growth hitting a three-year high, Economic growth revised downward in Q1; durable goods orders pop in April; jobless claims hit a 5-week high; and new home sales fall more than expected in April. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonm...

The European Central Bank released a concerning report about the impact of the war in the Middle East, a troubling report says Putin may expand the war into Europe, and consumer confidence holds strong in May despite headwinds This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Positive news out of the Middle East causes rates to fall for just the second time in two weeks. Residential construction is mostly positive in April, the House overwhelmingly passes a Housing Bill, manufacturing falls in Philly, and the FOMC minutes show talks of a possible rate hike. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episode...

Mortgage rates continue to rise as bond yields rise across the globe. Robin Brooks wrote on his Substack that bond yields are rising for temporary reasons (Iran war) and for structural problems (rising debt issuance among almost all nations. The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran and the US are showing no signs of moving any closer to a deal to end the war. The UN announces slowing economic gro...

It's been a rough two days for the bond market, with yields up 16 points in the last two trading days as bond investors are worried that the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's dovish approach to monetary policy could cause inflation to spike. In other news: Homebuilder confidence rose more than expected in May, and homebuilders face an increase in lawsuits, which can raise the cost of home building. This...

We saw a slight drop in rates on Thursday as markets reacted to President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping in China, retail sales rising in April but not as much as inflation, and jobless claims rising for the second straight week but remain close to two-year lows... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonm...

The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Federal Reserve Chairman, producer prices skyrocketed in April, bond investors are worried about inflation, and the 30-year treasury auction was not very good... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Uncertainty surrounding the British Prime Minister pushed the 30-year gilt yield to near a 30-year high, while April’s CPI report showed energy prices continuing to surge, sending consumer inflation to nearly a three-year high. Meanwhile, the Treasury’s latest 10-year auction saw weak demand, adding more pressure to bond markets, though a new household debt report suggested consumers are still man...

Rates moved higher as uncertainty in the Middle East intensified after President Trump called Iran’s latest counteroffer “totally unacceptable” and warned the ceasefire was on “life support,” raising fears of renewed tensions and higher oil prices. Meanwhile, a proposal to suspend the federal gas tax is gaining traction in Washington, while existing-home sales increased in April, though the gain c...

Rates pulled back slightly on Thursday as Iran had not agreed to talks about a longer ceasefire, jobless claims rose slightly from last week's 7-year low, and mid and long-term consumer inflation expectations held steady despite a rise in short-term expectations. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmort...

As reports of a possible peace deal between Iran and the US showed promise, oil prices fell, equity prices rose, and mortgage rates fell. In other news, private payrolls saw their best month since January 2025... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Job openings fell slightly more than expected in March, but quits rose, giving us a mixed JOLTS report. The trade deficit rose slightly more than expected and the service sector fell slightly more than expected. While we got a lot of data, none of it really moved rates with the 10-year and 30-year both seeing a small drop. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subs...