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Today, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Claire Brady for a different sort of episode. Together they discuss multiple significant political developments in the U.S., including the implications of a sweeping mega bill passed by the House, the Trump administration's conflict with Harvard University and shifts in U.S. foreign policy. The conversation highlights the potential socioeconomic impacts of the meg...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Layla Guest to discuss the ongoing peace negotiations surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. They focus on recent developments, the contrasting positions of Russia and Ukraine, and the differing approaches of the EU and the US. They also explore the potential future of these negotiations and the role of China in the conflict.   If you enjoyed this episode,...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Noam Ostfeld (Principal Analyst - Middle East & North Africa & Turkey) to discuss the recent Israeli military strategy in Gaza, focusing on the intensification of operations and the implications for both domestic politics and humanitarian conditions. They explore the so-called 'Rafah' model, which involves holding territories for longer periods,...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Claire Brady (Principal North America Analyst) to discuss the recent Canadian federal elections. Claire outlines the Liberal Party's victory under Mark Carney, the context of Trudeau's resignation, the influence of Donald Trump on Canadian politics, Carney's approach to US relations and the implications for Quebec and other political parties like the NDP...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Shiza Abbasi, Sibylline's Principal Analyst for South Asia. Together, they explore J.D. Vance's visit to India, focusing on the implications for U.S.-India trade relations amidst ongoing tariff tensions. Shiza discusses the historical context of the visit, the domestic political dynamics in India, and the challenges posed by agricultural tariffs.    If y...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Alex Marciniak from the Latin America desk here at Sibylline to discuss the recent presidential elections in Ecuador. Alex explains the newly elected President Daniel Noboa, his policies and the ongoing security crisis in the country. Alex also highlights Noboa's approach to governance, particularly his security measures against organised crime, the econ...

Please note that this episode was recorded on April 9th, and further developments may occur. Stay tuned for future episodes!   In this episode, Ignacio Ayala and his guest, Jonah Kaplan (Principal Analyst for Asia Pacific at Sibylline) delve into the escalating US-China trade war, examining the recent tariff increases and China's retaliatory measures.  Jonah lays out the implications of these acti...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala and Claire Brady discuss President Trump's recent tariff announcements. They explore the motivations behind these tariffs, their calculation, global reactions, and potential domestic economic implications. The discussion highlights the significant impact these tariffs may have on international trade relations and the U.S. economy.   If you enjoyed this episode, let u...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent IDF airstrike on Beirut, its implications for the ceasefire with Hezbollah and the potential perpetrators behind recent rocket attacks. They explore the recent historical context of the ceasefire, the dynamics of the current situation and the likely future developments in the region.   If you...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Associate North America Analyst Azul Hidalgo Solá to discuss the recent political developments in Canada. Azul focuses on Mark Carney's decision to call for a snap election and the implications for the Liberal Party and its competition. The discussion highlights the shifting political landscape, the impact of tariffs, and the leading candidates' contrast...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent detention of Turkish opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, the subsequent protests in Turkey, and the international response to these events. It highlights the political climate in Turkey under President Erdogan, the implications of İmamoğlu's arrest, and the reactions from civil society and fore...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Principal Middle East Analyst Noam Ostfeld about the recent deployment of Israeli tanks in the occupied West Bank—the first such deployment in over 20 years—as part of an intensified military operation. If you enjoyed the episode, please leave a review and subscribe! Follow us for new episodes and more geopolitical content: Follow us on Instagram: https:/...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Latin America Intelligence Analyst Alex Marciniak about the escalating conflict in Colombia’s Catatumbo region (Norte de Santander department). Alex explains the significance of Catatumbo as a major coca-producing region and a hotspot for drug smuggling across the Venezuela-Colombia border. He also describes how the National Liberation Army (ELN) has inte...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa Analyst Ben Manzin to discuss the situation in Goma after fighting erupted between the M23 rebel group and the Congolese Armed Forces. Ben explains the situation in Goma, the actors involved, the impact the conflict will have on organisations operating in the area and the broader regional implications in the coming days and w...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Sibylline's Middle East and Africa Analyst, Megan Sutcliffe, to explain the recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Megan explains what is contained in the agreement, the process of reaching the agreement and how it may impact regional tensions.  Please leave a review and follow the show to get immediate notifications when a new episode is releas...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Principal North America Intelligence Analyst Claire Brady to discuss Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation as leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister. Trudeau's decision follows mounting party pressure due to declining popularity, internal criticism, and fears of losing to the Conservatives in the next federal election. Claire lays...

In this Episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to unpack how Syrian rebels managed to sweep through the country and take the capital city of Damascus. Megan lays out the major actors, their recent movements and what this will mean for the region in the coming days and weeks.  Please note that we’re offering free trials of our industry-leading World Risk...

In this Episode, Ignacio is temporarily replaced by Sam McVicar who is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa Analyst Ben Manzin to discuss a shooting which occurred around the residence of General Akol Koor Kuc, the former head of the National Security Service (NSS) in South Sudan's capital, Juba. Ben takes us through the government's current narrative of the shooting, the underlying causes and wh...

As the dust settles on the recent 2024 US elections, Ignacio is joined by Sydney Stewart and Claire Brady from our Americas desk to discuss the election day, the results and the implications for the coming days and weeks! Please note that we’re offering free trials of our industry-leading World Risk Register service until January 2025! For more information, contact our Relationship team at info@si...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Sibylline's Middle East and Africa expert, Megan Sutcliffe, to explain Israel's recent strike on Iranian territory. Megan explains how the pre-dawn attack unfolded and what the strike will mean for the region's ongoing tensions in the coming days and weeks.  Please leave a review and follow the show to get immediate notifications when a new episode is re...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Sibylline's Middle East and Africa expert, Megan Sutcliffe, to walk us through the exchange between Hamas militants and the IDF which resulted in the death of Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar. Megan walks us through the incident itself and what Sinwar's death will mean for Hamas in the coming days and weeks including how it will impact the wider Israel-Hamas w...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Jonah Kaplan, one of Sibylline's Asia Pacific Analysts, to discuss China's latest round of military exercises near Taiwan. Jonah explains both the exercise and its geopolitical and economic context. Please leave a review and follow the show if you enjoyed the episode!   To stay on top of geopolitical updates from across the globe, please register for our...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Sibylline's regional expert, Megan Sutcliffe, to walk us through the turbulent events rocking the Middle East over the past several days. Megan lays out the escalating tensions from the initial Hamas attack in October of 2023, to the recent spate of pager bombs throughout Lebanon, the deadly strike that killed Lebanese Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah an...

Our host, Ignacio Ayala, is joined by a new guest this week, Alexander Marciniak, an associate analyst from the Latin Americas desk, to explain a recent wave of cartel violence that has rocked Mexico. Alex walks us through the context of the clashes and the trends, warnings, and indicators he and his desk are monitoring. Please leave a review and follow the show if you enjoyed the episode.   To st...

In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Sibylline Ltd's Principal Analyst for the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Noam Ostfeld, to discuss 3,000 pagers owned by Hezbollah operatives exploding simultaneously across Lebanon and Syria. It is believed that Hezbollah's suspicion of the devices may have triggered the detonations. While this is plausible, a more recent second round of explosions...