What Just Happened?

In this episode of *What Just Happened*, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline analysts Lewis Galvin and Caspar von der Schulenburg to ask whether Moscow could provoke a crisis on NATO soil. After the US midterms, could Donald Trump use American intelligence as leverage to press Kyiv into a deal that favours Moscow? And as Germany rebuilds its intelligence services after a spy scandal that shoo...

Israel’s election has left neither bloc with a majority. Could renewed war with Iran give Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to form a national unity government and stay in power? On What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Principal MEA Analyst Megan Sutcliffe and Middle East Analyst Omar Khadr to discuss how Israel might break the deadlock and what Netanyahu’s departure could mea...

Britain is sending fighter jets to help defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks, while inside Yemen the battle for Taiz threatens to shift the balance of the war. In this week’s What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Middle East analysts Omar Khadr and Owen Williams to examine the widening international defence effort, the Houthi offensive and whether Saudi Arabia and its...

US midterms: Why the hardest test for America’s allies may lie ahead Could an electoral setback leave Donald Trump weakened at home but more assertive abroad? In this week’s What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli joins Sibylline’s Principal Analyst Americas Claire Brady and Lead Analyst Lewis Galvin to explore the midterm outlook, MAGA’s uncertain future and the Republican succession struggle...

Could Russia’s shadow war cause mass casualties in Europe within six months? Following an attack on a Polish Starlink ground station, What Just Happened? host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Karan Vassil and former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram MBE to examine Moscow’s increasingly reckless hybrid campaign. As Russia tests the West’s red lines, are Western governments doing...

The risk of a successful high-impact attack on European soil is increasing. As Russian hybrid operations escalate, how close is Europe to more open confrontation? In this episode of What Just Happened?, Sibylline’s Head of Global Analysis, Edward Johnson, is joined by Associate Analyst for Europe, Annabel Walker, and Europe Analyst, Caspar von der Schulenburg, to examine what the recent arrests ne...

The US still leads the global AI race, but China is closing the gap. Could the competition itself make AI more dangerous? In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Chief Analyst, Sam Olsen, and Lead Analyst for Technology and Geopolitics, Jake James, to explore the potential existential risks of AI, why US-China strategic competition could make meaningful s...

The Iran-US conflict has evolved significantly over the past seven months, creating strategic, economic and societal consequences both inside Iran and across the wider region. In this episode, Samuel McVicar speaks with Sibylline Principal Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the current state of the conflict, how it has evolved and what could come next. Megan explores Iran's inter...

An attempted mutiny in Niger has exposed growing tensions inside the country’s military regime, raising fresh questions about General Tiani’s grip on power and the loyalties of the armed forces. In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Benedict Manzin and Dr Alia Brahimi, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Programs at the At...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline's Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord to examine the political tensions emerging inside Ukraine as the war continues. The discussion explores former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s call for wartime elections, the political fallout from his dismissal and the broader debate over how Ukraine should balanc...

A drone carrying explosives penetrated security at Leipzig Halle Airport in Germany and struck a Ukrainian-owned Antonov aircraft. Its detonator failed, potentially preventing civilian casualties. In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Sibylline analyst Caspar von der Schulenburg joins Samuel McVicar to examine the incident and what it could signal about the evolution of Russian grey zone ta...

What does a major primary victory in Michigan tell us about the future of the US Democratic Party? In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline North America Analyst Claire Brady and George King IV, Vice Chair of Democrats Abroad UK, to examine the rise of socialist politics within the Democratic Party. The discussion explores Abdul El-Sayed's victory in Mi...

A conflict on the Red Sea is heating up again and, like the Strait of Hormuz, could have massive implications for global supply chains. In this episode of What Just Happened?, Samuel McVicar is joined by Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Analyst Owen Williams to examine the sharp escalation in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi movement. Following fresh missile and drone attacks,...

What did the Strait of Hormuz crisis reveal about the future of global security? More than many realise. In this special episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Professor Alessio Patalano of King's College London, former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe OBE and Sibylline Geoeconomic Advisor Stewart Paterson to examine the strategic lessons emerging from one of the world's mos...

The transatlantic alliance has shaped global security for generations. But are the United States and Europe beginning to drift apart? In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline's Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord and Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin to examine the future of one of the world's most important strategic partnerships. The discussion exp...

Why would a president replace one of his most popular ministers in the middle of a war? In this episode of What Just Happened?, Samuel McVicar is joined by Sibylline's Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Karan Vassil to examine President Zelensky's controversial dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and what it reveals about Ukraine's political and military landscape. The discussion explores the...

Following Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington and talks with President Donald Trump, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline analyst Omar Khadr and Middle East expert Kyle Orton to examine whether Baghdad can bring Iran-backed militias under state control - and what that would mean for US-Iraq relations and Tehran’s influence.   Join the Sibylline Podcast mailing list: https:/...

Ukraine's manpower shortage is well known. Russia's challenge is different: not finding more soldiers, but deciding how far Vladimir Putin is willing to go to recruit them. Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Lead Europe Analyst Alexander Lord and eminent Russia expert Professor Mark Galeotti to discuss the mobilisation dilemma that could determine the course of the war into 2027.   Read Mark...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline analysts Owen Williams and Lewis Galvin to examine why Washington is reconsidering Turkey’s return to the F-35 programme ahead of NATO’s summit in Ankara. They discuss Turkey’s cooling relationship with Russia, its enduring value to NATO, the limits of any rapprochement, and why concerns over democratic backsliding ar...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Dr John Hemmings, Senior Adviser to the  Pacific Forum and Jonah Kaplan, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst at Sibylline, to examine what recent conflicts may be teaching China's military planners. Drawing lessons from the US, Israeli and Iranian conflicts, the discussion explores how Beijing is assessing American military capabili...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead North America Analyst Lewis Galvin and Principal Middle East & Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to unpack the recent Iran-US peace agreement and what it could mean for regional stability. They examine the reported scope of the agreement, including the 60-day ceasefire extension, nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief discussions and the reopening...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Alexander Lord, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, and Jonah Kaplan, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst, to examine the significance of Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea and what it reveals about shifting power dynamics in East Asia. The discussion explores why China is reaffirming its relationship with Pyongyang at a time when Nor...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa analyst Benedict Manzin to examine Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections and the challenges facing the country as votes continue to be counted. They discuss allegations of electoral fraud, delays in the voting process and the difficulties of holding elections in regions affected by conflict and insecurity. The conversatio...

In this episode, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Middle East, North Africa and Turkey analyst Owen Williams and Europe analyst Magdalena Lembovska Young to examine Turkey’s increasingly fragile political landscape under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They explore the growing pressure on Turkey’s democratic institutions, the use of the judiciary against political opponents and the mounting crackdow...

In the latest episode of What Just Happened?, Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Karan Vassil and Cyber & Intelligence Analyst Denise Schipani examine Moscow’s growing efforts to emulate China with a more centralised and state-controlled internet, reviving levels of repression not seen since the Soviet era. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/sibyllinemedia If yo...