What Just Happened?

Ukraine's manpower shortage is well known. Russia's challenge is different: not finding more soldiers, but deciding how far Vladimir Putin is willing to go to recruit them. Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Lead Europe Analyst Alexander Lord and eminent Russia expert Professor Mark Galeotti to discuss the mobilisation dilemma that could determine the course of the war into 2027.   Read Mark...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline analysts Owen Williams and Lewis Galvin to examine why Washington is reconsidering Turkey’s return to the F-35 programme ahead of NATO’s summit in Ankara. They discuss Turkey’s cooling relationship with Russia, its enduring value to NATO, the limits of any rapprochement, and why concerns over democratic backsliding ar...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Dr John Hemmings, Senior Adviser to the  Pacific Forum and Jonah Kaplan, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst at Sibylline, to examine what recent conflicts may be teaching China's military planners. Drawing lessons from the US, Israeli and Iranian conflicts, the discussion explores how Beijing is assessing American military capabili...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead North America Analyst Lewis Galvin and Principal Middle East & Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to unpack the recent Iran-US peace agreement and what it could mean for regional stability. They examine the reported scope of the agreement, including the 60-day ceasefire extension, nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief discussions and the reopening...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Alexander Lord, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, and Jonah Kaplan, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst, to examine the significance of Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea and what it reveals about shifting power dynamics in East Asia. The discussion explores why China is reaffirming its relationship with Pyongyang at a time when Nor...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa analyst Benedict Manzin to examine Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections and the challenges facing the country as votes continue to be counted. They discuss allegations of electoral fraud, delays in the voting process and the difficulties of holding elections in regions affected by conflict and insecurity. The conversatio...

In this episode, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Middle East, North Africa and Turkey analyst Owen Williams and Europe analyst Magdalena Lembovska Young to examine Turkey’s increasingly fragile political landscape under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They explore the growing pressure on Turkey’s democratic institutions, the use of the judiciary against political opponents and the mounting crackdow...

In the latest episode of What Just Happened?, Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Karan Vassil and Cyber & Intelligence Analyst Denise Schipani examine Moscow’s growing efforts to emulate China with a more centralised and state-controlled internet, reviving levels of repression not seen since the Soviet era. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/sibyllinemedia If yo...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Principal Analyst for North America Claire Brady and Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst Aédán Mordecai to examine the outcomes and implications of the recent Beijing Summit. They explore the current state of US-China relations, ongoing trade tensions and the strategic calculations shaping diplomatic engagement between the two powers. Th...

On this episode, Sub-Saharan Africa analyst Edward Bach joins Samuel McVicar to discuss the recent attacks across Mali by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in collaboration with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA; an ethnic-Tuareg secessionist group). These parties' capture of Kidal, their expanding control of northern Mali and the ongoing enforcement of a blockade around...

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Lead Europe Analyst Alexander Lord and Rear Admiral Chris Parry to examine the growing threat to critical national infrastructure beneath the sea. They explore the recent increase in Russian naval activity and the expanding use of civilian vessels for strategic purposes. The discussion focuses on the vulnerability of undersea c...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by intelligence analyst Inigo Camilleri De Castanedo to unpack Peru’s chaotic election cycle and the growing tensions surrounding the country’s political future. They discuss delayed vote counting, allegations of fraud and why a deeply fragmented electoral field has created uncertainty following Peru’s recent elections. They also assess the regional implic...

In this episode, Sibylline Media Editor Marco Giannangeli is joined by Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin and Professor Alessio Patalano of King’s College London to examine global tensions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. They explore the strategic and legal realities of disrupting shipping through the Strait, including what it would take t...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Edward Bach to examine the rapidly escalating conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They unpack the resurgence of the M23 militia, its backing from Rwanda and how recent territorial gains are shifting the balance on the ground. The discussion explores the deeper drivers of the conflict, from resource competition to...

In this episode, Marco Giannangeli speaks to Sibylline’s Chief Analyst Sam Olsen and Dean Cheng, Senior Fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, about what that means in practice — and why Washington may face a stark choice between a long war and risking its credibility.   Join the Sibylline Media mailing list https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/sibyllinemedia   If you enjoyed this episo...

A major geopolitical test case is unfolding just off the US coastline. Fuel shortages, blackouts, and tightening sanctions are pushing a Caribbean state towards a critical breaking point — after the collapse of Venezuelan oil supplies and renewed US pressure. In this episode, Lead Americas Analyst, Lewis Galvin, joins his colleagues from the Americas desk, Azul Hidalgo Solá and Inigo Camilleri, to...

In this episode, Sibylline Media Editor Marco Giannangeli is joined by maritime expert Tom Sharpe OBE and Russia expert Keir Giles to examine the growing threat posed by Russian cyber and physical operations targeting European infrastructure. The conversation explores recent incidents involving sabotage and suspected GRU-linked activities and highlights key vulnerabilities across the UK's critical...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst Aédán Mordecai to examine how the ongoing US–Israeli bombing campaign in Iran could trigger a major energy shock across Asia. With around 60% of Asia’s crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the region is highly exposed to disruptions in global energy markets. They explore how countries across Asia are preparing for po...

In this episode, Sibylline Media's Editor Marco Giannangeli hosts a panel discussion with Principal Middle East & Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe and Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin to examine the rapidly unfolding situation in Iran following US and Israeli airstrikes. They explore the implications of reported strikes on key strategic facilities and the alleged death of Supreme Leader Ali Kh...

In this episode, Rafael Saliés is joined by Alex Marciniak, Latin Americas intelligence analyst, to examine the uncertainty surrounding the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) following the death of the former leader, Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes AKA 'El Mencho'. The discussion unpacks the CJNG’s operational scale, internal factions, and the regions most at risk, including Michoacán and Tamau...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by regional experts Megan Sutcliffe and Claire Brady to assess rising tensions between the United States and Iran as the region remains on high alert ahead of ongoing negotiations. They examine how military build-ups, political pressures, and fragile negotiations could either trigger wider regional conflict or open a path to de-escalation. Check out Megan'...

In this episode, Marco Giannangeli, Editor for Sibylline Media, sits down with Denise Schipani, Cyber and Geopolitical Intelligence Analyst, to explore the evolving landscape of cyber threats, with a particular focus on the vulnerability of critical national infrastructure in the UK. They discuss how Russian cyber operations are increasingly targeting operational technology — including water syste...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa Analyst, Ben Manzin, to examine Ethiopia’s fragile 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement amid mounting clashes and rising geopolitical tensions in Tigray. They unpack how internal power struggles, shifting regional alliances, and decades-old ethnic disputes threaten to unravel years of diplomacy — and what that could mean for million...

In this special Sibylline Podcast, Lead Europe-Eurasia analyst, Alexander Lord, is joined by Elizabeth Bullock, who shares her firsthand experiences of Russia's modern war. Elizabeth discusses her journey from a technology startup background to operating on the front lines in Ukraine for 3 years, offering a rare perspective on how Russia's war unfolded in its early stages and how daily life has be...

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Sibylline's Chief Analyst, Sam Olsen, to explore the concept of the 'polycrisis' — the convergence of geopolitical, technological, and economic risks threatening global stability in the coming years. Sam Olsen explains China’s growing assertiveness, Taiwan’s strategic vulnerabilities, and the critical importance of semiconductors and AI in shaping futur...