Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Evergrande - China’s Lehman Brothers? 17.09.2021 11:30 ↓

Chinese property company Evergrande is in trouble. It’s bonds have fallen to 25 cents in the dollar. Is this the “big one” for Chinese real estate?

ECB Taper: a Head-Scratcher 14.09.2021 10:37 ↓

Whoops, they did it again.

Income Inequality Driving Bond Yields Lower? 08.09.2021 10:30 ↓

Have a read of the Mian, Straub & Sufi paper (or the FT’s Robert Armstrong’s summary of it).

Season 5, Episode 1: Three Things Driving the World of Bonds 06.09.2021 12:26 ↓

The Delta slowdown, the end of the US global policeman role, and China’s pushback on capitalism.

Duncan Weldon’s “Muddling Through - the surprising story of Britain’s economy” 23.08.2021 39:30 ↓

Duncan’s new book is a “must read” look at how the British economy became the world’s leader - and what went wrong thereafter…

Moyeen Islam: the Bank of England & Quantitative Tightening 18.08.2021 22:33 ↓

An interview with the famous Barclays government bond strategist, Moyeen Islam. The BoE has announced its QE exit policy - have they got it right?

Uncle Jim’s 2021 Summer Special 09.08.2021 24:28 ↓

What does the rest of the year hold for bond investors?

US 🇺🇸 GDP Misses - but don’t worry, it’s bullish! 29.07.2021 8:02 ↓

Inventory drawdown results in a growth miss for the States. Also today, the Fed starts thinking about tapering.

Record low US Real Yields amid a China Crisis 🇨🇳 27.07.2021 8:01 ↓

The Chinese and HK stock markets are tumbling on regulatory fears. Add that to the existing Delta Variant worries and US TIPS real yields are at record lows of -1.1%.

Morgan Stanley Paper: Debt Sustainability is Key 16.07.2021 9:06 ↓

R-G is the most important thing, not an arbitrary debt/GDP level.

US 🇺🇸 Inflation Higher Again - But Bond Markets Barely Move As Global Growth Fears Rise. 13.07.2021 7:41 ↓

5.4%! And core inflation up 0.9% over June alone. Can we still use the “transitory” narrative?

The ECB Raises the Inflation Target 09.07.2021 6:24 ↓

But this is no Fed-style FAIT.

Bonds Rally Again! More Buyers Than Sellers. 07.07.2021 8:36 ↓

And Koko-Chan, the Japanese bond market mascot.

Green Gilts 05.07.2021 12:23 ↓

The U.K. government is going to issue “green” bonds in September. What will they look like? How much will they cost?

“Where Credit Is Due” by Gregory Smith. Africa’s Sovereign Debt and its Future. 29.06.2021 14:48 ↓

An interview with Greg Smith, expert in African bond markets and economics, about his great new book.

Inflation Bottlenecks Ending? 28.06.2021 8:44 ↓

Also, the Bank of England is less hawkish than feared. And High Yield isn’t very high yield.

The De-Re-Inflation Trade. 22.06.2021 9:19 ↓

Also - digital currencies and freedom.

Fed Turns Hawkish. And is Australia 🇦🇺 Really A Huge Default Risk? 17.06.2021 8:37 ↓

Talking about yesterday’s change to the Fed Dot Plots, plus a FTSE Russell sovereign default model based on climate change.

U.K. 🇬🇧 Inflation Joins the Party 🎉 16.06.2021 10:01 ↓

Please forgive the emojis, I couldn’t help myself. 🤗

10 Reasons Why Treasury Bonds Are Rallying 12.06.2021 13:15 ↓

What it says in the title.

5% US Inflation - Highest for 13 Years. 10.06.2021 8:04 ↓

It was expected to be strong. It was, and then some. 💪

Some Personal Gilt Market Historical Recollections 07.06.2021 16:26 ↓

One of the biggest bond issues in history matures today. 8% 2021.

Taper! The Fed Announces It’s Selling Its Corporate Bonds. 03.06.2021 8:53 ↓

Is this the beginning of the end for QE and emergency bond purchases?

Ryan A. Bourne - “Economics In One Virus” 🦠 28.05.2021 20:37 ↓

The Cato Institute’s Ryan Bourne discusses his new book on the economics of the pandemic: the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL), public v private actions, global trade and vaccine nationalism, and the all-important labour market.

Demographics: is the future inflationary or deflationary? 26.05.2021 9:04 ↓

As Europe ages in the same way as Japan has, should we expect higher or lower inflation? Also today, I try to pronounce Tokamak.