UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President-elect Trump has threatened to tax US consumers aggressively via tariffs, if countries “replace” the dollar. It is not clear what “replacing” means. The US dollar is only one international invoicing currency among many. Over half of Eurozone exports are invoiced in euros, for instance. Invoicing status is of limited importance.

The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now, we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates, and transformative innovation in the years ahead. As we approach the midpoint of the decade, a key question is whether US political change might extend or end this “Roaring ‘20s” dynamic. To help you start the new year with confidence, join our global liv...

The French budget and bond yields are attracting attention, with the media ever eager to spot another Truss debacle. This weekend will (presumably) see some fevered politicking in Paris as politicians try to come up with a budget that will not scare markets, but will also not lead to a collapse of the government. France’s deficit is not sustainable, but the government is not actively seeking to ma...

US data on income and spending confirms that the US consumer has money and is prepared to spend it. There was not, perhaps, much doubt of the latter point. US living standards continuously reach new highs (at least as measured in economic terms). The personal consumer expenditure deflator offered no surprises with regard to inflation—though it did show that inflation was more driven by supply prob...

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes signalled a gradual series of rate reductions next year (a quarter point each quarter seems reasonable). A December rate cut is also plausible, bringing interest rate reductions in line with the decline in the inflation rate.

As 2025 quickly approaches, Rich rejoins Jason for a year-ahead discussion, spanning the macroeconomic environment, to markets, to the landscape across Washington DC. We also spend time reviewing investment themes in-focus, along with allocation preferences across asset classes. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein,...

Government by social media—US President-elect Trump pledged to hit US consumers with aggressive consumption tax hikes immediately on taking office. A 25% tax for consumers of Mexican and Canadian goods and an additional 10% tax on consumers of goods from China is proposed.

As we commence a shortened holiday trading week, Jason reflects on Friday’s announcement of global macro hedge fund investor Scott Bessent being nominated as Treasury Secretary. Jason weighs the prospects for Senate confirmation, along with likely policy approach. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Markets reacted positively to US President-elect Trump nominating the financier Bessent as treasury secretary. Investors prefer orthodoxy, predictability, and coherence from economic policy; there were fears that some of the candidates may not possess those attributes. Bessent does. Bessent has said he regards taxing US consumers via trade tariffs as a bargaining tool—essentially the stance in Tru...

Our series of year ahead conversations continue as Mike Gourd stops by the studio to outline the key messages and investment themes from the UBS Chief Investment Office that investors should be mindful of for 2025 (and beyond). Mike also introduces and explains the new Transformational Innovation Opportunities framework as a guide for investing. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist...

Former US Congressperson Gaetz withdrew from the nomination to be US attorney general. This is not a post with much direct importance to investors (beyond a general belief in the rule of law). However, it might be read as the Senate challenging someone regarded as an unorthodox choice. Investors often prefer orthodoxy, especially for roles at (for instance) the Federal Reserve.

Learn about key developments that will shape the next stage of the decade, including political change in the US, economic stimulus in China, geopolitical developments and lower interest rates. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

South Korean export data for early November rebounded from October’s decline, led by sales of microchips and ships—neither of these directly suggest consumer spending is behind the improving trade data. Chip demand has been focused on investment spending lately, and shipping construction has too long a lead time to be a short-term indicator of global demand.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares expectations for the year ahead, across global regions. We also spend time reflecting on this year’s “roaring twenties” scenario - notably its’ impact to global growth and markets, along with its’ anticipated presence throughout this decade.

UK consumer and producer price inflation data for October leads today’s data calendar. The headline numbers will be distorted by the weirdness of UK energy pricing (despite large-scale renewable energy generation, gas prices determine what consumers pay). Bank of England Governor Bailey yesterday put some emphasis on service sector inflation, while advocating a gradual reduction of rates.

There is a quiet data calendar. Eurozone final consumer price inflation data for October is the textbook definition of an economic non-event. The regional numbers are all out, and final consumer price data almost never changes from the initial release. Markets are also comfortable in their expectations for ECB rate cuts in the coming months.

As we await President-elect Trump’s personnel selections to carry out US economic policy, Jason examines the mix of known intended supply-side fiscal policies of the incoming administration. We also touch on the implications of potential fiscal policy to the course of monetary policy, along with assess the integrity of the “Trump trade” following recent indications of cracks. Featured is Jason Dra...

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors in the wake of the US election outcome, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with...

Financial markets had, perhaps, hoped that the next US treasury secretary would serve as a defender of free trade in the administration, and at least seek to minimize the severity of US consumer tax hikes. Media reports suggest that the search is being broadened, and commitment to the tax increases is being sought. The challenge of the proposed tariffs is not just the rate, but also the breadth (a...

China’s singles’ consumer spending festival may have helped support October retail sales data. Industrial production data was less surprising, although the detail hinted at some export strength. It seems rather early for the story of foreigners buying goods in anticipation of tariffs—buy now to avoid taxes later—to apply.

We recap President-elect Trump’s visit to Washington DC (including his White House meeting with President Biden), along with review the known staff picks and cabinet nominations of the incoming Trump administration. Plus, a look at incoming Congressional leadership, and a review of the Congressional agenda priorities between now and year end. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affair...

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs the latest US inflation data, along with considers the potential impact of US-imposed tariffs (to nations such as China) to the US inflationary environment. We also calculate whether tariffs will ultimately pay for lower taxes in the US.

US October producer price inflation is due. These numbers better reflect corporate pricing power than does the consumer price data. The tone should be consistent with a December rate cut—in this situation, the Federal Reserve does not want rising real rates, and inaction would raise real rates over the course of this year.

We get US consumer price inflation data today. In one sense, the numbers are curiously unimportant. There are potentially competing forces at work on future US inflation. The fantasy owners’ equivalent rent measure should slow, but does not change anyone’s inflation reality. Oil prices may be lower, depending on US supply and Middle Eastern policies. Larger fiscal deficits, labor deportations, and...

We spotlight the latest Modern Retirement Monthly publication which breaks down the associated costs of long-term care, along with solutions to consider. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy