UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The New York Federal Reserve survey of inflation expectations is of little economic relevance, but may be of future political interest. Inflation expectations are skewed towards prices of high frequency purchases (food and fuel). Trade tariffs, as a sales tax, increase prices paid by US consumers—but generally for lower frequency purchases. As such, the impact on living standards may be greater th...

In the wake of the US election outcome, Jason breaks down what a second Trump term means for the markets, the US economy, and monetary policy. Plus, thoughts on the recent market momentum, and whether it can last, along with a look at CIO’s investment outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassi...

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and ElectionWatch Co-lead, provides an update on the vote count and outcome, while Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Strategist, Kevin Dennean, Technology and Telecom Strategist, and Brad Ball, Financials Strategist, dive into three of the most election-sensitive sectors.

China’s fiscal stimulus plans underwhelmed financial markets. There is a sense that consumer weakness has not been addressed directly (the weekend’s consumer price inflation data suggested consumer weakness). There might be a reluctance to admit that current policies are not working, or a desire to keep some fiscal firepower in reserve to deal with the risk of trade taxes in 2025.

As we close out another trading week, Brian recaps the FOMC policy meeting, along with notable economic data releases from over the past few days. We also spend time examining some economic implications of this week’s US election outcome. Plus, a look at the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

John Savercool, Head of Governmental Affairs US, David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income provide our initial reaction to the current vote count, equity and fixed income markets moves, and more.

On this episode of Viewpoints, and in the wake of the US election, Burkhard weighs what a second Trump term means for the markets, and how investors are balancing the prospects of lower corporate tax rates and less business regulations, with higher tariffs and wider budget deficits. Burkhard also discusses the concerns of the ‘bond vigilantes’ and what those concerns might mean for treasuries.

Every pundit claims they know the reason for the US election outcome. This pundit is no different. In exit polls, Republican voters’ biggest concern was the economy and 75% of US voters said inflation was a hardship this year. Three years of durable goods price deflation are not noticed by voters, who focus on price levels of high-frequency purchases (like food). The election may have been won and...

On this post-Election Day episode, Shane breaks down the known results (including for the race for the White House, along with the many Congressional races). Plus, reflects on Decision 2024 voting trends and turnout. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

At the time of recording, the US Senate has been called for the Republican party, and the House and presidency remain open. Financial markets have moved to price a victory by former US President Trump. However, markets appear to assume that the campaign rhetoric (specifically around deportations and tariffs) will not fully translate into policy.

There is another wave of noise from sentiment polls (today it is the turn of service sector sentiment). French September manufacturing and industrial production data are due (manufacturing sentiment has pointed to a dramatic collapse in production since January 2023. French manufacturing output has risen over the same period).

With Election Day just hours away, and a Fed policy meeting slated for later this week, Jason drops by to share CIO’s assessment heading into the election, along with what recent jobs and GDP data could mean for the course for monetary policy. We also check in on Q3 corporate earnings results, share CIO’s current market outlook, along with guidance when it comes to asset allocation. Featured is Ja...

The US employment report last Friday was weak, but distorted. It does not add much useful information on the US economy, although it serves as a reminder that real time economic data is not reliable and is frequently revised. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s strategy of data dependency depends on undependable data.

Mike Contopoulos rejoins Leslie Falconio for a discussion around year-end asset class performance expectations, potential outcome implications of the US election for fixed income investors, positioning, and more. Featuring Mike Contopoulos, Director of Fixed Income for Richard Bernstein Advisors, as well as Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investme...

On this episode, Andrew Lee and Lucy Thomas preview the upcoming COP29 (2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference) in Baku, Azerbaijan, including a look at the top agenda items that will be covered at this year’s conference, namely Climate Finance. Featured are Andrew Lee, Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing for the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Lucy Thomas, Head of Sustainable Investi...

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges how the US equity market rally has stalled, this against a backdrop of mostly upbeat Q3 corporate earnings reporting, and with Election Day next Tuesday. We discuss how investors should consider responding to these recent markets moves, and prepare for the post-election market environment. Plus, thoughts on gold heading into 2025.

As we close out the trading week, Brian and Paul weigh in on the latest jobs data, and what it means for the health of the US economy, along with the course ahead for monetary policy. Plus, we review CIO’s current allocation recommendations, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UB...

It is US employment report Friday. This report is distorted by hurricanes, strike action, and the fact that the data is always wrong. Taking a broad sweep of economic data, the signs are that the labor market is doing fine. The ongoing strength of US consumer spending suggests little fear of unemployment, for instance.

Anwiti Bahuguna serves as Chief Investment Officer of global asset allocation, and portfolio manager for Northern Trust Asset Management. Anwiti shares her views on the US economy, real estate, along with outcome implications of the US election to markets. Plus, we spend time highlighting where opportunities can be located. Host: Daniel Cassidy

After the excitement of yesterday’s GDP data, today investors are granted another peek into the hedonistic lifestyle of the US consumer. Personal income and consumption data are due, and both should be relatively buoyant. Job security and rising real incomes are powerful forces for supporting economic activity through consumer spending.

With Election Day just days away, Shane drops by to update on what swing state polling is pointing to, and how the Presidential candidates are spending their final days on the campaign trail. Plus, an update on developments as it relates to Israel and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Dan Suzuki serves as the Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Dan drops by the 1285 podcast studio in New York to share his US economic outlook, thoughts on Q3 corporate earnings, equity valuations, monetary policy, and more. Plus, we spend time highlighting where opportunities can be located. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Third quarter GDP data comes out of some European economies, and the US. The data will be wrong because (as recent US revisions so clearly demonstrated) economic statistics fail to capture the rapid pace of structural economic change. Comparing headline GDP in countries like Italy and Germany (declining populations) with countries like the US (rising population) is unfair.

Leslie stops by to explain the factors that are driving rate volatility, along with potential US election outcome implications for fixed income investors. We also cover a near-term outlook for fixed income markets, along with review positioning considerations within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Dani...

US job vacancy data is due. The survey response rate for this data is so low as to class those who do bother to respond as peculiar. Moreover, the data measures externally advertised vacancies only, and the surge and retreat in job vacancy numbers probably owe more to the changing ratio of internal to external job vacancies within companies.