UBS On-Air: Market Moves

While we wait for the perfection of economists running everything, politicians are creating background noise. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Germany’s government lost a vote of confidence and February elections are now likely. Expect deep soul-searching about relatively insignificant changes in fiscal deficits.

As we conclude the CIO Strategy Snapshot series for 2024, Jason unveils and explains his choice for 2024 “finance word of the year”. We also spend time reflecting the latest round of inflation data, previewing this week’s FOMC meeting, and reviewing CIO’s investment recommendations heading into 2025. The CIO Strategy Snapshot will resume on Monday, January 6. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset...

China’s November retail sales disappointed. Some of this can be blamed on the timing of the singles shopping festival. The pattern of sales showed consumers spending in areas with government support, but in doing so cut back on areas without government support. This demand switching in an overall subdued demand environment has parallels to Japan’s “spending voucher” initiatives in the 1990s. The d...

The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates, and transformative innovation in the years ahead. As we approach the midpoint of the decade, a key question is whether US political change might extend or end this “Roaring ‘20s” dynamic. To help you start the new year with confidence, Jason Draho, Head of...

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors as we approach 2025, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Kewjin “Kew” Yuoh, Partner, Portfolio Manager with Lord Abbett, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office...

Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus (including Artificial Intelligence) for the US Information Technology sector in 2025. We also spend time reviewing sub-sector preferences, along with reflect on sector performance over the past year. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology & Telecom Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment O...

The ECB cut rates by 25bps as was expected. The ECB does not want to be running a restrictive monetary policy at the moment, and more rate cuts are expected next year. The ECB’s challenge is that data tends to understate economic activity, so knowing precisely how the economy is faring is difficult.

On the final episode of Viewpoints for 2024, Burkhard reflects on what has been a busy year, spanning market and macro developments, along with shares expectations for 2025.

As 2024 comes to a close, the CIO Fixed Income team reflects on performance across sub-sectors (including Municipals, Investment Grade, and Preferreds), and share expectations for the year-ahead. Plus, thoughts on positioning across the broader asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along wit...

Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus for the US healthcare sector in 2025. We also spend time reviewing sub-sector preferences, along with reflect on sector performance over the past year. Featured is Eric Potoker, Healthcare Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US consumer price inflation data is due for November. These numbers are something of a mess. A quarter of the index is a fantasy price no one pays. Income inequality means the average price is less representative of most US households’ experience. The threat of taxes on US consumers from the next administration means this inflation data is not necessarily a good guide to 2025 trends.

In this special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book series, Paul Hsiao outlines some of the top questions on the minds of business owner clients as we head into 2025. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s consumers have been unenthusiastic, and exports are not necessarily dependable. Yesterday, China’s politburo signaled additional monetary and fiscal stimulus would be forthcoming. If US President-elect Trump taxes US consumers of goods from China, that may be a convenient excuse for China to cut taxes for its consumers.

Despite the emergence of growing global political risks in recent days and weeks, markets and investors appear to be unfazed - Jason offers thoughts as to why that’s the case. We also reflect on the November employment report, and what the state of the US labor market today might mean for monetary policy near-term. Plus, a look at CIO’s current market outlook and positioning views. Featured is Jas...

US President-elect Trump gave a wide ranging interview, touching on several points that matter to investors. Trump seemed to acknowledge the independence of the Federal Reserve (the chair cannot be dismissed on presidential whim). This will reassure markets. Investors may, however, be concerned by the determination to deport migrants established in the US economy.

As we close out another trading week, Mike Gourd drops by to recap the latest employment data, along with the remarks from several Fed officials this past week, including those of Chairman Jerome Powell. Plus, a look at what investors should expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday looms, when markets get excited about what an unreliable survey tells us about the economic outlook. The aftermath of strikes and hurricanes adds a lot of uncertainty to this report, and there is not really a consensus expectation for employment growth—just a wide range of random expectations. The forward guidance of this report is also diminished. Whatever the trends i...

In this episode, Shane updates on several key legislative priorities of Congress before year-end, including a government funding bill, a Farm bill, and the National Defense Authorization Act. We also take inventory of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees, and the prospects for confirmations in early 2025. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US....

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges the momentum across US equity markets, and weighs how a range of risk-factors could impact the longevity of the bull-run as we head into 2025. Burkhard also ponders the relationship between valuations and return expectations, plus shares thoughts on geopolitical developments within France and South Korea in recent days.

As expected, French Prime Minister Barnier lost a vote of confidence. That was the shortest-lived French government in over sixty years (he did outlast the lifespan of une salade verte, however). The likely options for fiscal policy are either a compromise budget under the new government, or rolling the 2024 budget into 2025. Neither offers much fiscal consolidation, but investors know this alread...

With new trade policies expected from the incoming Trump administration in the year ahead, we examine the potential impacts and implications to economies across Asia, namely that of China. We also spend time identifying key investment opportunities across the region that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host...

In the UK, 11pm is when pubs close and the risk of sending incoherent text messages increases. In South Korea, 11pm was when President Yoon decided to declare martial law. Parliament rejected this, martial law was rescinded, the cabinet is threatening to resign en masse, and impeachment proceedings against Yoon start today. The Bank of Korea pledged unlimited liquidity to markets.

Our series of year ahead conversations continue with a look at expectations for emerging market assets in 2025, including equities, bonds, and currencies. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The French government faces a vote of confidence tomorrow, with both the far right and the left pledging to vote against Prime Minister Barnier over the budget. A likely scenario would be Barnier continuing as a caretaker prime minister, and the 2024 budget being rolled over.

Are the markets getting too frothy, and have investors become too exuberant? Jason weighs these concerns, along with takes inventory of tariffs being considered by the incoming US administration, along with the potential market impact of them. We also preview a busy week ahead for US labor market data, and Fed speakers. Plus, thoughts on how to position for the current environment. Featured is Jas...