UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US December consumer price inflation should show modest headline gains. It is worth distinguishing inflation pressures and relative price changes. Egg prices are likely to rise sharply—egg producer prices rose 127.9% y/y in December. This is a supply shock. Unless Federal Reserve Chair Powell becomes a chicken farmer, they can do nothing about this.

Leslie rejoins the podcast to share CIO’s outlook for fixed income in 2025, including thoughts around the road ahead for monetary policy, what has been causing the rise in yields, and considerations when it comes to positioning within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets have reacted to media reports suggesting that the next US administration will impose trade taxes on US consumers gradually, month by month. Remember past media reports on tariff policy have subsequently been denied over social media. This is a boiling frog approach—the price level effect is the same, but consumers may not notice so much. The risk is that repeated tariff increases would enc...

What does a combination of good economic data and higher rates mean for the markets? Following a strong December jobs report, and with yields continuing to climb higher, Jason reflects on recent market moves and reaffirms CIO’s longer-term market outlook. Plus, thoughts when it comes to portfolio positioning for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, U...

China’s December trade data showed even more strength in exports than had been anticipated. This is being attributed to US companies stockpiling ahead of threatened taxes from US President-elect Trump. Such stockpiling may delay the consumer price inflation effects of the taxes (though the narrative of the tax increase is powerful, and may lead to consumer price increases regardless).

We close out the first trading week of 2025 by reflecting on the December employment report, along with the minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday brings the regular reminder that average earnings are not wages (changing labor force structures change the average). The payrolls number is derived from a survey that has a 43% response rate, and that poor representation means significant revisions are much more likely. The market is looking for a fairly dull report overall—some moderation in job creation with a stable...

With a new year underway, Ainsley and Justin rejoin the conversation to explain what retirees, along with those preparing for retirement, should know in 2025. These considerations span social security and Medicare, to long-term care costs, estate planning, and more. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office....

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes reflect the rather chaotic swings of view that occur under Fed Chair Powell. After an emergency rate cut without an emergency in September, the Fed has moved to slowing the pace of rate cuts being “appropriate” in December. The basic idea is unchanged— follow inflation down. Concerns were raised about US President-elect Trump’s trade tax and deportation policies...

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due. Investors’ concerns are less about the current state of play of the US economy (reasonable growth and slowing inflation) and more about where politics will take the economy next. This has added uncertainty about the 2025 policy path, and gives the minutes more importance than is perhaps normal at this stage of the cycle.

We kick-off 2025 by previewing President-elect Trump’s first 100 days in office, along with the legislative focuses and priorities of Congress in the months ahead. Plus, reflections on the life and legacy of late President Jimmy Carter. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The resignation of Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Bar highlights the guardrails in protecting central bank independence. While Barr’s resignation from the supervision role might be politically inspired, Barr has not resigned as Fed governor. All seven gubernatorial positions are filled, and a vice-chair of the board of governors needs to be a member of the board of governors. The next term to end is G...

Our first episode of the year kicks off with an assessment of market activity over the past few weeks, and what to expect from markets over the near-term. We also spend time outlining expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025, and with President-elect Trump’s inauguration only two weeks away, consider whether economic policies in Trump 2.0 will be more MAGA or DOGE. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of A...

Will a cooling labor market reassure the Fed? Will stocks recover from the December dip? Can gold push closer to all-time highs? CIO's Christopher Swann brings you the latest on this week's market themes.

US President-elect Trump has been posting on social media in support of a single budget bill through Congress. A single bill might take longer to pass, delaying policy implementation. Trump advocated taxing US consumers of foreign goods to pay for an abolition of taxes on tips. (Tipping has been a hidden inflation force in the US, raising the cost of services without being recorded in inflation da...

US politics intrudes into financial markets, with the US House of Representatives trying to elect a speaker today. US Speaker Johnson has been endorsed by US President-elect Trump’s influential adviser Musk, and by Trump. However, the Republicans hold a very small majority (219 to 215), and one Republican has pledged to oppose Johnson. Investors’ focus will be on what this process suggests about t...

2025 is the best of times, and the worst of times; an epoch of belief, an epoch of incredulity. In an increasingly polarized world, people will cling to one side or the other—without recognizing that both sides can have a point. It is an economist’s role to impartially assess the economic consequences of politics, in clear and direct language. The likely result is that I will upset everyone this y...

Listen to our final livestream of the year, where our Global Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, and colleagues provide an in-depth recap of 2024, along with key insights and investment strategies for 2025 and beyond.

On the final episode of Top of the Morning for 2024, Brian Rose drops by to share his thoughts and reflections on this week’s FOMC meeting outcome. We also look ahead to 2025 and examine CIO’s current forecast for rate cuts, along with take a temperature on the health of the US economy as we head into the new year. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Hos...

With the wearisome repetitiveness of a tacky Christmas song, a US government shutdown is again threatened. A budget deal backed by president-elect adviser Musk and President-elect Trump failed to pass Congress. Absent a deal, the US government starts to shut down tonight. A short-lived shutdown affects government workers, but has limited economic impact. The longer a shutdown lasts, the more disru...

US inflation has fallen this year. A lot of this is due to the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent price, which no one pays. Declining fantasy prices do not help consumers’ spending power. However, rightly or wrongly (the answer is “wrongly”), Fed Chair Powell pays attention to inflation measures including OER. If rates were raised on a fantasy, they should be cut on a fantasy—and we see a rate cut to...

For the final episode of 2024, Shane shares the latest on government funding negotiations, along with other year-end legislative priorities of Congress. We also touch on recent developments within Syria, along with highlight some notable priorities of Congress in the new year. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US inflation has fallen this year. A lot of this is due to the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent price, which no one pays. Declining fantasy prices do not help consumers’ spending power. However, rightly or wrongly (the answer is “wrongly”), Fed Chair Powell pays attention to inflation measures including OER. If rates were raised on a fantasy, they should be cut on a fantasy—and we see a rate cut to...

Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange 2024 reflections, and 2025 expectations - spanning market returns, monetary policy, and the macro environment for the US, and around the world. We also spend time addressing investment themes, and allocation preferences as we head into a new year. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Offic...

We wrap up our year-ahead series with a look at expectations for the municipal bond market in 2025, including how policy uncertainties and macro factors might impact munis, along with how investors should assess key trends and position within the asset class. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, Ted Galgano, Senior Municipal Credit Strategist Americas, & Jeannine...