UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Host, Kiran Ganesh, and colleagues present updated tariff scenarios, explore the implications of recent advancements in AI for investors, and share strategies to manage heightened market volatility.

The Federal Reserve decides on rates—the market consensus is for unchanged rates today. US President Trump advocates for rate cuts, but that view point may be biased by their experiences as a borrower. The rate outlook is complicated. Underlying inflation pressures are modest, and keeping real interest rates stable may require rate cuts.

A wide-ranging fixed income discussion on yields, along with where pockets of vulnerability and opportunity exist within fixed income as we enter 2025. Leslie and Gene also spend time sharing their overall outlooks, along with views when it comes to monetary policy, and positioning across the asset class. Featured is Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments,...

Following what has been a busy first week in office for President Trump, Shane recaps some of the notable executive actions, developments, and travel. Plus, we update on the progress of cabinet hearings and confirmations, along with preview what a timeline for tariffs could look like in the coming days and weeks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs...

Investors’ sudden discovery of China’s DeepSeek arguably reminds markets of the Fukushima Effect —people adapt when facing adversity (e.g. restrictions on China’s access to technology). On a larger note, output economics and GDP tend to ignore the benefits of efficiency. A culture that venerates GDP is a culture that may miss out on the benefits of a more efficient world.

Despite markets reacting favorably to week one of Trump 2.0, Jason explains why expectations should be managed when it comes to market price action. We also preview this week’s round of Q4 earnings, along with the FOMC meeting. Plus, thoughts on developments surrounding DeepSeek, and the impact to the US Technology Sector. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Inves...

China’s industrial profits grew in December, with profit margins seemingly more or less stable. This has a bearing beyond China’s borders because if China were “dumping” products by exporting below cost, profitability would suffer. Dumping might still happen in certain sectors, but the official data does not support it happening generally.

We provide a performance update and outlook for the municipal bond market, along with share views on positioning within the asset class. Plus, spend time assessing the implications of the ongoing California wildfires to muins. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates a quarter point, as had been signaled in the media in advance. The BoJ appears to have confidence in rising wages, and like other central banks is following the trend of inflation (the difference is that Japan’s trend is rising). We expect one further rate increase this year.

Jason and Paul rejoin in-studio to share their revised assessment as to whether the US economy is still on track to mirror a “Roaring 20s” scenario this decade, this as we’ve reached the mid-point of the 2020s. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s December trade data had weaker imports and stronger exports than had been expected. Exports to the US declined, which rather argues against pre-trade tax stockpiling in the US (though there may still be time for that). The absence of stockpiling would likely speed the impact of trade taxes on US consumers.

On the first episode of Viewpoints for 2025, Burkhard shares some boots-on-the-ground perspective from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. We also spend some discussing the implications of Trump 2.0 to European economies and markets.

Amantia rejoins the conversation in-studio to share some thoughts around the implications of recently signed executive orders by President Trump as it relates to both climate and energy. We also touch on implications for companies, along with takeaways and recommendations for investors when it comes to sustainable investing. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategi...

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK government borrowing rose in December. Higher interest payments on inflation-linked debt were a significant part of this. Inflation-linked debt is currently tied to the retail price measure (this will change at the end of the decade. Higher energy prices—themselves a function of government policy—can raise interest payments via inflation.

As President Trump’s second term is now underway, Jason performs a “fit check” assessment of the US economy and markets. Tune in for the takeaways, along with CIO’s positioning views and investment outlook. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Amid the woes, where are the opportunities in Europe’s car industry? President-elect Trump has threatened to slap higher tariffs on European carmakers, Chinese competition is intensifying, and demand for autos in Europe is flagging. But it’s not all bad news for investors. Featured is Rolf Ganter, Head, CIO Equities Europe, with co-hosts, Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters

South Korea’s trade data for the first 20 days of January showed a decline in exports—there were more holidays this year than last, affecting the data. Chip exports remain strong, but exports to the US, EU, and China all declined.

Will Trump's policy changes lead to near-term market volatility? Can earnings season stay solid amid anticipated market volatility? Will the Bank of Japan resume its rate hiking cycle this week? CIO's Belinda Peeters brings you the latest on this week's market themes.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

German December producer price inflation is due. This is not normally a major market concern, but as trade taxes and relative competitiveness become more of an issue, this is something investors might pay more attention to. German producer prices moved out of deflation in November.

US Treasury Secretary-nominee Bessent is a more orthodox cabinet nominee. Yesterday’s confirmation hearings saw generally articulate answers. The responses on trade taxes were troubling. Bessent’s idea that an appreciating currency offsets tariffs is not supported by recent evidence. The idea that US workers will not pay trade taxes is wrong. As he’s an intelligent individual, these views may refl...

Our first conversation of the year begins with thoughts around the recent rise in yields, along with where pockets of vulnerability and opportunity exist within fixed income as we enter 2025. Leslie and Ken also spend time sharing their overall outlooks, along with views when it comes to monetary policy, and positioning across the asset class. Featured is Ken Shinoda, Portfolio Manager for RMBS at...

Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation data was benign. Consumer durable goods prices fell for a majority of the Biden administration. Although consumers do not focus on such prices when considering inflation, this deflation did boost consumer spending power. The abrupt market response reflects the problem with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s “data dependency” mantra: any data release (however dod...

Rick rejoins Jason to begin a new year as the two discuss and share their views on the US macroeconomic environment, monetary policy and rates, along with exchange thoughts on allocation preferences across fixed income and equities. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, Head of the...