UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Join the Chief Investment Office for a discussion on the executive order Trump signed over the weekend to impose additional tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, the implications for investors, and more. The event is hosted by Amantia Muhedini and features David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, and John Savercool, Head of Governme...

Will new tariff policies derail economic momentum in the US? Does gold have further room to rally in 2025? Will the global easing cycle continue to gain traction in 2025? CIO's Belinda Peeters brings you the latest on this week's market themes.

Selected European countries are meeting in Paris to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. This is not likely to be market moving. Europe has allocated about 14% more money to Ukraine than the US, and countries like Germany do spend military aid on new production rather than using existing stockpiles. However, the sums involved are still economically small, limiting their impact.

Yesterday was US President Trump’s very big announcement on reciprocal tariffs, which turned out to be a plan to investigate taxing US consumers at a future date. Markets had to decide whether the president was being a protectionist or a pushover, and for now are erring toward pushover. The delay is seen as an opportunity to do “deals”. So far, such deals have been more spin than substance.

Yesterday’s US consumer price data provoked some unease in bond markets. This is mainly the fault of Federal Reserve Chair Powell—not because Powell’s policies drove inflation higher, but because Powell’s “data dependency” mantra means markets overreact to any data point. Egg prices are not controllable (not even by presidential executive order), but the fact that food price inflation is creeping...

US January consumer price inflation will be largely unaffected by US President Trump’s trade taxes (though prices are occasionally raised in anticipation of tariffs). Unless tax increases are very aggressive, nothing Trump does will have a bearing on first quarter inflation. However, the composition of consumer prices is politically important.

US President Trump stated there will be no exceptions to aggressively taxing US buyers of foreign metals (due to start on 4 March, giving time for US companies to plead for exceptions). If there is no retreat, this will reduce US steel consumers’ competitiveness via higher import and domestic costs (if domestic metal producers raise prices under cover of the tariff). Retail consumers are less like...

We begin the week by assessing the latest developments surrounding tariffs, recapping the January jobs report, and previewing upcoming inflation data. Plus, overall thoughts on recent market activity, and views on positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US President Trump (temporarily) retreated from ending de minimis tariff exemptions. De minimis rules mean US consumers do not pay trade taxes on imports worth less than USD 800. This, alongside retreats from taxing Colombian, Mexican, and Canadian goods, emphasizes trade tax visibility. Consumers would notice the cost of these tariffs (affecting food and fuel prices, or the price of purchases fro...

In this episode, CIO's Jon Gordon provides an update on Chinese tariffs on the US coming into effect, Fed speak & US AI security policy under President Trump.

Brian shares his thoughts on the current health of the US labor market following today’s release of the January employment report. Plus, a look at the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Today witnesses the extreme hype of US employment data. Today’s data also has annual benchmark revisions, which will confuse the headlines. Weirdly, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled all briefings explaining data. This is not necessarily helpful as data becomes more complex, inaccurate, and misunderstood. It has also fueled disquiet that the new US administration might politicize the...

Kristina Hooper is the Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco. We cover a wide range of topics, including a macroeconomic outlook, expectations for monetary policy, notable market risks, and views on asset allocation. Host: Daniel Cassidy

New US Attorney General Bondi issued a flurry of memos, allegedly including a request to investigate companies pursuing diverse and inclusive workforces. That is economically significant. At a time of rapid structural change, companies need to employ the right person in the right job at the right time to maximize technological gains, with diverse views to spot the opportunities of rapid change. Un...

As headline developments surrounding trade uncertainty and DeepSeek persist, Xingchen drops by to discuss what this all means for emerging market equities. We also spend time examining the scope of US imposed tariffs on China, and the implications for Chinese growth and overall relations with the US. Plus, a deeper look into DeepSeek’s breakthroughs in the AI space. Featured is Xinghen Yu, Emergin...

The US postal service has stopped receiving parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong after US President Trump taxed buyers of goods from mainland China worth less than USD 800. Meanwhile, restaurants are surcharging egg-eaters. These are trivial issues, but they affect economic perceptions. Small parcels make up less than 5% of mainland China’s exports to the US, but individuals either do not rec...

US President Trump again retreated from imposing aggressive taxes on US consumers. Although taxes on goods from Mexico and Canada are in theory delayed for a month, after three retreats in a row markets are unlikely to take that threat seriously. US consumers would have been visibly affected by these taxes—even Republican senators became aware that tariffs are paid by their constituents and not fo...

Investors are weighing the announcement of new tariffs from the Trump administration, and the risks of a trade war, along with the implications of DeepSeek to the progression of AI. Jason drops by to discuss the market and investment implications of these developments, plus shares guidance when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief...

Economists are geeks. Star Wars parallels are tempting: US President Trump as the Trade Federation leader; Trump’s largest donor Musk as Chancellor Palpatine, railing against bureaucrats; and economists as Jedi Knights. But threatened US trade taxes have real consequences. Investors’ hope is the precedent of Trump’s rapid retreat from taxing Colombian imports.

As the Q4 corporate reporting season continues, Matt updates us on how the results have been coming in across equity sectors. We also discuss recent performance of US equities, a near-term performance outlook, along with considerations when it comes to positioning within US equities. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump reiterated their intention to aggressively tax US consumers of products from Canada and Mexico, possibly excepting oil consumers. Several US refineries are set up to process Canadian and Mexican, not US, oil. The speed of Trump’s retreat from taxing US coffee drinkers is a reminder of the unpredictability around tariff policy.

Businesses have greeted the post-election environment with optimism, yet uncertainty remains as questions surround the timing and implementation of Trump 2.0 policies’ interplay with a seemingly more cautious Fed and slowing economy. Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to discuss the outlook and implications. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The returning US president has already helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. He is now attempting to do the same for Russia and Ukraine. But what kind of deal looks likely and what would this mean for Europe’s economy and markets? Finally, which equity sectors could benefit most from peace? Featured in this episode is Themis Themistocleous, CIO for EMEA, alongside co-hosts Christophe...

The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates, which seemingly displeased US President Trump. Uncertainty about the inflationary impact Trump’s policies might reduce the chance of a March rate cut, but characterizing policy as restrictive does suggest future rate cuts are plausible. Overt criticism of the Fed by Trump risks tilting the Fed toward hawkishness in any close call decision, to prove their i...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the developments surrounding DeepSeek and the impact felt by US technology and energy companies. Burkhard also shares some interesting boots-on-the-ground takeaways from recently attended deep-tech conferences, along with weighs the impacts of the global race for energy resources.