UBS On-Air: Market Moves

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent geopolitical developments, and how global markets (including oil) have responded over the past few days. Plus, an assessment of market valuations, along with outlook scenarios. To conclude, Burkhard reflects on his unforgettable cycling journey through the Swiss Alps, and cites intersections with the world of investing an...

US President Trump lashed out in several directions yesterday, suspending military aid to Ukraine and aggressively taxing US consumers of imports from Canada, China, and Mexico. Although Trump inherited a strong economy, these moves increase US recession risks. The Ukraine decision has economic consequences. It may increase international hostility to Russia and the US, affecting sanction resolve a...

While there is a lot of noise for investors to sift through, there are some things we know with relative confidence. As for other things, we will have to make conjectures. Jason joins to identify just that, along with reviews the latest allocation recommendations, and messages in focus for the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Invest...

The idea of a coalition of the willing pushing for a one-month ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war is probably neutral, economically. Things like defense spending or energy supplies are unlikely to be affected significantly by this move.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Alex Obaza, Portfolio Manager, T.Rowe Price. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Equity markets reacted to social media posts from US President Trump. Trump is often more coherent on social media than in off-the-cuff comments, and these remarks made clear an intention to hike taxes—US buyers will need 25% more cash to buy goods from Canada or Mexico, and another 10% cash to buy from China. The China threat is credible, and in line with our expectations. Markets are not incline...

US President Trump confused investors by appearing to delay taxing US consumers of Mexican and Canadian goods. The White House then “clarified” that the tax delay was not decided. Such taxes would be very visible to US consumers, at a time when Trump’s approval ratings on the economy and inflation have fallen, making repeated retreats likely.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains how and why market activity (and performance) has started to shift from the US to the rest of the world this year, and how investors should consider positioning their portfolios accordingly.

Many investors want to know the possibility of changes to federal income tax policies, and what the changes might mean for their personal tax burden. However, it's not just the future of taxes and tax policy that matters, it's where your income level falls along the income brackets that ultimately matters. We identify where you can focus your attention so that you can better manage your li...

US equity markets were a little disturbed by a sharp decline in a consumer confidence survey—but these surveys are distorted by partisan politics. Depending on the cable news network one watches, the US is either an unpleasant version of Panem from “The Hunger Games” or a Panglossian paradise where all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds. Clear economic signals are hardly likely to...

US President Trump repeated their intention to aggressively tax US consumers of goods from Canada and Mexico, starting next week. Markets do not entirely believe Trump. Taxing everyday essentials like propane gas and avocado on toast would be very visible, very quickly to US consumers. Polls suggest only 32% of US voters approve of Trump’s management of inflation.

Jason weighs whether the main macroeconomic debate in 2025 relevant for the markets may be whether a Trump policy put is more or less likely than a policy error. We also reflect on Friday’s notable selloff across US equity markets, and recap Germany’s election results. Plus, a look at CIO’s near-term market outlook, and positioning views. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas,...

As with many other elections in the past 12 months, the Germans voted against their incumbent government. The CDU’s Merz is expected to become the next chancellor (coalition negotiations typically take months). After the results, Merz compared US election interference to that of Russia, and suggested that Europe would need to become independent of US security.

Against the backdrop of a potential shutdown of the US government next month, Shane updates us on a range of priorities being addressed by Congress. We also update on the status of remaining cabinet-level confirmation hearings, along with ongoing negotiations for a Russia-Ukraine war resolution. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Danie...

We discuss the European Union Omnibus regulations, along with Trump administration executive orders that have attracted attention to the sustainability landscape. Featured in-studio are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Roarty, Chief Investment Officer of the Sustainable Thematic Equities team at AllianceBernstein...

US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that former US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s debt issuance plan would continue, implying no increase in longer-dated Treasury bonds and lowering 10-year yields. This support is threatened by talk of a “DOGE dividend” to taxpayers. There is a considerable gulf between claimed government savings and economists’ view of reality. Refunding illusionary savings would...

Paul rejoins us in-studio to answer some of the most commonly asked questions our business-owner clients have regarding the M&A, Private Equity, Venture Capital, and IPO space in 2025. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The minutes of the January Federal Reserve meeting gave a cautious policy outlook. Nervousness about the economic consequences of US President Trump’s policies was clear. In particular, the potential for Trump to ignite a further wave of inflation was cited. Companies seem more willing to pass on import tax increases to end consumers than in Trump’s first term (perhaps because consumers have becom...

US President Trump threatened more taxes on US consumers, focused on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Trump rapidly retreated from trade taxes that would be very visible to US consumers—Gen Z would notice tariff-induced inflation for avocado on toast. Less visible taxes (like aluminum) have endured. The new proposals are partially visible—taxing new cars raises second-hand car prices an...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on his recent travels to Africa and attendance at technology conferences across Europe - shedding light on the continental differences of our digital economy, along with opportunities to be aware of. Burkhard also previews the upcoming elections in Germany, and what clients and investors should be mindful of.

The Swiss franc has long been a safe haven during uncertain times - second only to the US dollar for many investors. But what makes the currency of the world's 20th largest economy so appealing? The small Alpine nation also boasts an impressively broad industrial base and an array of innovative companies. So, which other Swiss assets should global investors be considering? Featured in this epi...

Jason drops by the 1285 studio to share his assessment of recent economic data, including on inflation and retail sales. We also take inventory of recent policy developments out of Washington DC, spanning DOGE to tariffs, to Congressional budget negotiations. Plus, thoughts on overall market activity, and a look at positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Amer...

UK labor market data was stronger than forecast, with some positive revisions to previous month’s data. Anguished corporate cries about tax increases and related projections of mass unemployment do not (so far) appear in any of the data. Employment growth seems especially strong amongst the middle-aged, who matter because they have an important degree of spending power.

An assessment of federal policy proposals and potential implications to the muni market, along with a YTD muni performance check, and a look a muni investment trends. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, and David Perlman, ETF Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman