UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The OECD revised down estimates of US growth for this year and next. The OECD does not have any special insight (other than the extraordinary insight of all economists), and market forecasts for growth tend to adjust faster than those of the OECD. The announcement is a reminder of the shift in the narrative about US growth, in the face of erratic policy and rising US consumer taxes.

As investors continue to weigh whether to buy the dips or sell the rallies, Jason suggests how assessing President Trump’s decision tree for implementing tariffs may deliver clarity. We also preview this week’s FOMC meeting, reflect on the latest retail sales data, and acknowledge the YTD outperformance of international markets. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Hea...

China’s long-awaited plan to boost domestic consumption is here (as yet without much detail). Unlike the 2024 stimulus, these proposals seem to directly address consumers’ fear of the future. However, the international spillover may be limited. Economic nationalism means that China’s consumers have been less inclined to buy foreign goods.

We close out a turbulent week in the markets by recapping the factors that drove the selloff, along with share an outlook for US equities and review positioning recommendations. Plus, thoughts on the latest round of inflation data, and a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The recurring risk of a US government shutdown has receded, with some Democrat senators looking to advance legislation. Against the backdrop of damage to “animal spirits” from erratic government policy and taxes, the potential for economic damage from a shutdown would be larger and longer lasting.

With the government funding deadline just hours away, Shane outlines what the proposed continuing resolution consists of, and updates on where negotiations stand. Plus, an inventory of US imposed tariffs, along with retaliatory measures by trading partners. We also check in on progress of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement and speak to the likelihood of a CHIPS Act reversal. Featured is Shane Li...

March is Women’s History Month - Carey Shuffman and Amantia Muhedini join the podcast to spotlight the Gender-lens investment: The state of women in 2025 report, which identifies opportunities for investors across sectors for, in and by women. We also highlight how women can be empowered at every stage of their financial journey through the UBS ‘Own your worth’ initiative. Featured are Carey Shuff...

ECB President Lagarde almost sounded like an economist yesterday, noting inflation pressures could go up or they could go down. While highlighting the increased economic uncertainty of 2025, Lagarde confirmed market expectations that the direction of ECB rates is down. There are seven ECB speakers jostling for media attention today.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the absence of an anticipated “Trump-put” amidst a rotation occurring across global equities. Burkhard also considers whether this current downturn is more of a short-term “panic-attack”, or the start of a new Bear Market. Plus, thoughts on how investors should position, and where to focus.

We examine how China has been responding to challenges on the trade-front, along with highlight how ex-US markets (including China) have been performing as of late. Plus, some takeaways from the National People’s Congress meeting, and a broader review of preferences across emerging market equities. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Da...

US President Trump imposed and retreated from aggressive taxes on US users of Canadian steel and aluminum, and Canada retreated from a surcharge on exports of electricity to the US. Canadian steel and aluminum are caught by yesterday’s global 25% tax on US consumers. The EU responded with taxes on its consumers (buyers of bourbon are badly hit), but the EU consumers have substitutes as taxes are o...

Join CIO for a discussion on tariff uncertainty, inflation, and the implications of the artificial intelligence rally, hosted by Anthony Pastore and featuring Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation CIO Americas and Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist CIO Americas.

As potential risks around macro-and tariff-related uncertainties emerge in 2025, how should investors position in tech and take advantage of increasing near-term volatility? Plus, as German election results shape market sentiment, what's the outlook for European stocks and what tools can investors leverage?

Equity markets are not just about economics (equity analysts do not always listen to economists). However, shifting perceptions of economic risk seem to be behind recent US equity market moves. 2025 started with solid economic foundations in the US and other developed economies.

As US growth concerns persist, Jason explores how at risk the economy is of slowing (and the possibility of sliding into a recession). We also cover the latest on tariffs aimed by the US at Canada and Mexico, along with touch on policy and market developments in Germany. Plus, a look at CIO’s latest market outlook and portfolio positioning guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocatio...

China’s consumer prices moved into deflation in February. Some of this is due to the timing of the lunar new year, and some of it is the impact of warmer weather on food prices (food has a higher weighting in China’s inflation calculation than in developed economies). However, markets are concerned that the low inflation environment does not suggest robust domestic demand.

We close out the trading week by assessing the latest round of jobs data, and what the numbers indicate about the health of the US labor market. Plus, take an inventory of tariff announcements, preview next week’s inflation readings, and reflect on recent equity market volatility. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Having imposed aggressive taxes on US consumers at the start of the week, US President Trump partially retreated from taxing Mexican and Canadian imports yesterday (assuming goods are compliant with the revised NAFTA). The taxes are delayed until 2 April, but markets will likely price in more retreats.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the big rotation unfolding across global markets, with the recent outperformance of global equities, and underperformance of US equities. Burkhard explains why the “go global” thesis remains intact, along with shares his take on intertest-rates, inflation and gold.

Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, has promised “independence” from the US, having become convinced that the Trump administration is “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe”. As a result, he hopes for significant spending on defense and infrastructure. Against that backdrop, and after years of lackluster growth, Germany’s DAX index has been among the best performing markets. Can t...

US President Trump sounded a partial retreat from the latest trade taxes, granting US car companies a one-month exemption for car parts traded under the revised NAFTA. This rather highlights the fact that US consumers and companies, not foreigners, pay trade taxes. One month does not allow for much response—some stockpiling, presumably a lot of lobbying. Market reactions seem to signal a belief th...

To help you navigate an evolving landscape, Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues will delve into the latest developments in US trade, domestic, and foreign policy, examining their potential impacts on investors and offering strategies for positioning in the months ahead.

US President Trump’s address to Congress echoed speeches at campaign rallies. Markets have limited interest in much of the content. Trump did suggest trade tariffs would create “a little disturbance”, which seems to suggest a commitment to keep taxing US consumers. However, there was a faint sound of retreat from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who suggested that some of the tax burden may be lifte...

We cover a wide range of timely topics, including tariffs and US trade policy, efforts for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, along with US government funding and budgetary efforts. Plus, a preview of President Trump’s address to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Off...