True Potential Morning Markets

Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, looks at the bond market and government spending in both the UK and US. With the upcoming US election which is currently favouring a Trump win and his prior terms fiscal policy, we have seen a 0.6%-pt rise in borrowing cots. In the UK borrowing costs have also risen and with the government revealing their Autumn budget tomorrow, we will see the full extent o...

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks ahead to what will be a week full of important economic data with the US GDP, inflation and jobs reports coming in as well as corporate earnings from major tech companies such as Amazon, Apple, Google and Meta. In the UK we also have the first budget under the new leadership where a mix of greater government spending and higher taxes are expected.

This week, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation and Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, look at how the bond market is reflecting the uncertainty of near term political events and how that is shaping markets. We look at the imminent UK budget and some of the press reports on potential policy and the upcoming US election which is polling at a 60% Trump victory.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the release of the Japanese PMI data which breaks down the outlook for both services and manufacturing sectors. Data indicates a slowing in economic growth ahead. We also discuss this economic data against the backdrop of an unusual shift in Japan’s economy that has seen equities return 20% over the past year.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at US earnings season which is in full swing, with 100 companies having reported and General Motors being a stand out, having exceeded expectations for revenue and profits. In asset markets, the key area to pay attention to is Gold which just hit new highs being driven in part by tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the US electio...

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the recent economic data coming from the US, illustrating a resilient and robust economy and how this could be shifting upcoming interest rate decisions. At the start of the month, market expectation were that there would be another 0.5% cut in November, however, these have recently shifted to a 0.25% cut. In China, further measures are being taken to stimu...

This morning our Investment Director, Paul Durrans, previews what we can expect to happen in the markets following several corporate earnings results due this week.   There’s a high focus on the global manufacturing and housing sector, delving into the data from durable goods orders and the PMI Manufacturing Survey.   Also what will reports from Tesla, Texas Instruments, General Motors, Natwest an...

Chris Leyland, Head of Investment Strategy and George Bell, Portfolio manager, look at the European Central Bank and their decision to continue the interest rate cutting cycle after inflation came in at 1.7%. This tracks with market expectations as the eurozone economy was showing signs of stagnating so the hope will be that reduced borrowing costs will support growth. In terms of inflation, a sim...

Chris Leyland, Head of Investment Strategy, looks into US earning season and the positive early reports from companies with 80% of the current 50 reports beating market expectations. Morgan Stanley posted a 32% increase in profits from a year ago and US equities on a one month basis are up 4% as we’re starting to see a broadening out of the equity rally, with banks outperforming the main market by...

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the UK inflation figures which have came in at 1.7%, beating market expectations and giving the Bank of England a strong signal to reduce interest rates in November. Also in Europe inflation has fallen below the European Central Bank target which gives further expectations to an interest rate cut decision.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the recent UK jobs data which has unemployment at 4% with the number of people in jobs at a record level. This puts the labour market in a strong position ahead of the budget in a little over two weeks. However, the Bank of England is treating this data with caution given concerns over the quality of the data. UK wage growth however is unaffected by the...

This week, our eyes turn to the UK where the last round of major data points is released ahead of the governments budget announcement. Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, looks at the market expectation of UK inflation falling below 2% in this weeks print which would put it below the Bank of England target and at its lowest point since April 2021. Global bond markets are already signalling tha...

This week, Paul Durrans, Investment Director and George Bell, Portfolio Manager, look at the recent modest improvement in the UK economy after two months of stagnation. Also in focus this week was the US which saw a new record high in equity markets but also saw some volatility within the bond market. China, with its 5% growth target, is facing challenges in the property sector but with more fisca...

Investment Director, Paul Durrans, covers the S&P 500 reaching a new record-high and examines how 2024's interest rate cuts in the US are affecting global markets. While fears of a slowing US economy emerged, stronger-than-expected employment data pointed to economic resilience. With further US rate cuts anticipated over the next year, equity markets are rising, but bond markets are showing sl...

With the US Presidential Election less than a month away Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, takes a look at the market expectations for each outcome. He assess the current state of US economy, what markets are currently pricing in and how victory for Trump or Harris could alter the country’s current interest rate cycle.

Portfolio Manager, George Bell, covers data from the US and the impact on bond markets. For the first time since mid Summer, the US treasury is above 4% after the surprisingly strong employment data released on Friday. In turn, the market has moderated their expectations of another 0.50% rate cut in November, but still expecting two 0.25% between now and the end of the year, followed by a further...

With announcements from the October Budget looming, Head of Asset Allocation, Kevin Kidney, reviews how the UK’s economic growth could be impacted by impending budget announcements. With further commentary on how positive US employment suggests the US economy is stronger than markets perceived, how will the future growth of both the US and UK economies impact markets?

This week, Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Sam Elliott, Investment Analyst, summarise financial markets and monetary policy changes that could impact your money. China has continued to be in focus for equity markets as investors digest the larger than expected stimulus measures. Elsewhere they discuss the recent US labour market reports and how equity and bonds markets have reacted.   Closer...

Investment Director, Sebastian Mackay, discusses the Bank of England suggesting that more aggressive interest rate cuts will occur in near future. Moreover, why does the UK need an interest rate cut, and how will this impact the markets, and more importantly, your money? Find out on this episode of Morning Markets. #investing #Inflation #interestrates #MorningMarkets #TruePotential 

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the data from Europe that puts headline inflation at 1.8%, below the European Central Bank target of 2%. How will this change expectation for further cuts from the central bank? In the US manufacturing remains in contraction but the underlying data provides some mixed signals. Dominating global headlines is the conflict in the Middle East which has cause...

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the latest Tankan survey from Japan and the cautious optimism seen in the manufacturing sector. Large manufacturers plan to increase capital expenditure by 10.6% in the year ending March 2025. The report was taken ahead of the announcement of the massive stimulus package announced in China which should benefit Japanese manufacturers as a key trading partner...

Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, looks at the remarkable performance of the Chinese stock market last week which saw a near 20% rise in most major equity markets. As we look to the week ahead, German and Italian inflation data will be a strong indicator of whether the European Central Bank will continue its rate cuts in Q4. We get US survey data on manufacturing and services this week which...

This week, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation and Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, take a look at some equity markets which have reached all time highs. US and German equities reached new highs this week, but tell slightly different stories. The US growth dominance continues, boosting asset prices and supported by lower inflation and lower interest rates. German equities reflect buoyant...

Today, Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at the recent shifts in oil markets and the wider global events that are affecting supply and demand. From Saudi Arabia who could drop their $100 a barrel target on barrels of oil to increase market share, to agreements in a divided Libya on a Central Bank Manager which could aid in the process of managing oil revenues and help with dist...

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, covers the announcement of the People’s Bank of China implementing an interest rate cut of 0.3%. This comes off the back of announcements earlier this week and is part of a coordinated strategy to boost the economy. Where this may not seem like a large move, it is actually a record interest rate cut for China’s central bank. This has caused a rally in Chinese equ...