True Potential Morning Markets

Today, George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the latest initiatives in China for lending and the property market in a bid to support economic activity. With a plan to lower rates in short and medium term lending as well as a cut to required bank reserves, this amounts to an equivalent 140 billion US dollars into the economy. Moving to the US and we see a positive perspective from corporate Amer...

As we look to the week ahead, Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the recent decision from the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and some of the key US economic data that will be coming through this week. This week, members of the Federal Reserve voting committee will be giving their perspectives on the health of the US economy and the strength of labour markets. In recent months inv...

This week, Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, look at the diverging decisions between two major central banks. The Federal Reserve, this week decided to cut interest rates by 0.5% whilst the Bank of England almost unanimously voted to hold rates unchanged at 5%. Paul and Joe discuss the key takeaways, the market reaction and expectations for future monetary poli...

Today, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, covers the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates in the US by 0.5%. Other Central Banks will now take note with the US beginning with a large cut, and market expectations to reduce interest rates below 3% by this time next year. 

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the upcoming interest rate decision that the Bank of England will make tomorrow and the economic factors that will be weighed. Will they continue the cutting cycle or hold rates where they are? In the US the interest rate cut is highly expected and the question is more by how much? The lowering of interest rates over the next 12 months will be dependent...

Today our Portfolio Manager, Matt Henderson, provides commentary on the market holding a 72% expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates by 0.5% this week. With further insight into how equities and yields are reacting and what could this mean for markets in the future and more importantly, your money?

Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, looks to the week ahead with the upcoming release of data across global markets. The Federal Reserve faces a decision on interest rates cuts and whether it will be a 0.25% cut as markets expect or a 0.5% cut. In contrast, the Bank of England which meets later this week and is expected to hold interest rates after an initial cut in August as inflation numbers...

George Bell, Portfolio Manager and Faye Graham, Investment analyst, look at what was a positive week for equities and bonds with some real strength in the data from most major markets. The European Central Bank delivered on expectations of a second interest rate cut which now sits at 3.5%. In the US the market has a firm view that we will see an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Septem...

Today, Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the August inflation data for the US and its implication for imminent interest rate decisions. There’s still a question of whether it will be a 0.25% or a 0.5% cut but regardless of the Federal Reserve’s decision, this cut is just the beginning of what is expected to be a cycle of cuts that takes interest rates down to below 3% by the end of 2...

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, talks about the US inflation report releasing later today and what key aspects could mean for interest rate policy. Of particular interest to the Federal Reserve will be the core inflation reading. We also get a health check on the UK from reports in this morning that point to a stalling of the economy with zero growth registered in July.

Today, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, looks at the official UK employment data for the 3 months through to June which shows growth in both full-time and part-time jobs. Of key importance to inflation-watchers will be the deceleration in wage growth, it may seem counterintuitive, but lower wage growth allows more room for the Bank of England to lower interest rates further. For wider conte...

As we look to the week ahead, Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, turns our attention from the US to Europe and the potential for another interest rate cut from the European Central Bank. With most data pointing to a weakening economic backdrop, expectations are for a further 0.25% cut and the market will be wanting to hear any signals as to the trajectory of further cuts in the coming months....

This week, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, and Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, focus on US employment and its swift movement back towards a healthy balance, which was confirmed earlier in the week with the Job Openings and Labour Turnover data. The market reaction from an equities perspective was negative but bonds rallied, providing an offset which demonstrates the importance of multi-...

Today, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, looks at the slowing of the US ‘jobs’ economy as the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data which provides why the reasons remain constructive. The survey from the Bureau of Statistics has three key areas, job openings, hires, and quits and is a timely indicator of the health of the US labour market. This leads us into tomorrow’s US Non-...

Today, Chris Leyland, Investment Director, looks at US manufacturing data which despite moving in a positive direction, came in below expectations yesterday and remained in contractionary territory. Despite political uncertainty with upcoming elections and 5 months of contractionary figures, the prospect of interest cuts from the Federal Reserve is expected to lift manufacturing. Elsewhere, equity...

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the contrasting economic backdrops of Europe and the UK where in Europe we see higher interest rates and energy prices impacting the manufacturing sector. UK manufacturing is seeing a different outcome with new orders rising rapidly and output reaching a 2.5 year high which has caused an increase in employment. Similarly UK retail sales had their highest...

With the US interest rate decision on the horizon, Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, looks at upcoming reports which will have a factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision. For investors, the main event is Friday and the unemployment report, looking back to August and the non-farm payroll data was the catalyst for a difficult start to the month, will September’s figures lead to a similar outcom...

This week, Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, look at the comments made by the US central bank chair Jay Powell at the annual conference in Jackson Hole. Jay Powell gave his strongest indication yet that the US central bank is ready to cut interest rates next month. The key question is whether it will be a 0.25% or 0.5% interest rate cut next month? The team r...

Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, looks at the second quarter earnings data that came in yesterday that puts Nvidia ahead of analyst expectations with positive results and an approval of $50 billion in share buybacks, but why did the share price fall in after hours trading? We also look into the Richmond Fed Services activity data that corroborates the Federal Reserves intention to lower int...

Today, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, digests the comments from Prime Minister Kier Starmer on the direction of the UK economy and the difference beween political aspiration and reality. With forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility reporting that welfare spending may increase 40% over the next 6 years whilst economic growth is expected to only increase 25%, more tax rises will...

Today, Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the comments made at the annual Jackson Hole symposium which took place last week. Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell said “the time has come for policy to adjust’. This confirmed the widespread market expectation of an interest rate cut in September but the question is whether we will see a 0.25% cut or a 0.5% cut? Labour market data betwee...

This week, George Bell, Portfolio Manager and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, look at the key areas of strength we’ve seen in the global markets. Digesting a raft of economic data, reflecting on signs of a cooling US labour market and a more discerning consumer with evidence from some of the leading US companies. Though slowing, US economic fundamentals remain in good shape, with inflation coolin...

The release of today’s Purchasing Managers’ Index data from the Hamburg Commercial Bank suggests that services across Europe are continuing to expand, while the manufacturing sector remains a challenge for these nations. George Bell, Portfolio Manager, examines these numbers, looking at how events like the Olympics have helped fuel demand for services and what this could mean for the European Cent...

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the bounce back in global equity markets and the reasons why. The S&P500 is almost back to its July 16th all-time high. Looking ahead to the end of the week, all eyes will be on Jackson Hole, a three day conference of global leaders and policymakers. The most important speech at the conference will be the one from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Pow...

Today, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at some of the early impacts of the Bank of England’s interest rate cut in the form of housing demand and mortgage rates. Rightmove have reported a 19% increase in buyers enquiring about homes for sale from this time last year, with a large spike immediately after the Central Banks announcement. Historically there has always been a link between inter...