True Potential Morning Markets

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the US jobs data that came out ahead of market expectations yesterday and the Atlanta Fed projections of 3.2% US growth this quarter. Matt also points out that limited economic growth doesn’t necessarily equate to poor equity performance with some data from Germany.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at the US manufacturing data which came in yesterday and despite still being in contraction, surpassed market expectations. What are the main drivers behind this improvement and could we be seeing green shoots of recovery for US manufacturing?

As we look to the week ahead, Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at some of the potential outcomes of the ‘austerity’ budget vote in the French parliament. Kevin also looks at the jobs data which dominates the US narrative in the early month and what it says about the US economy as we approach the close of 2024.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments and Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, reflect on the US economy as well as the current economic forecasts for the UK and Eurozone with a particular focus on how Germany and France’s political climates may have economic impacts.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the ambitions of Donald Trump achieving a weaker dollar when his proposed policies appear counter intuitive to achieving this. Will the president elect use policy as a negotiating tactic and how will economies respond to these policies?

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at the trade implications of Trump’s tariff intentions for Mexico and Canada and the likelihood of such policy becoming reality. With all time highs in the S&P500 and a 30 month high in hiring intentions, the story is of strong US growth.

This morning, Director of Investment Strategy, Chris Leyland, explores reports of Donald Trump raising US tax tariffs on foreign goods from China, Mexico and Canada. The updated tariffs are supposed to encourage US consumers to purchase US-made products that would be cheaper than their international counterparts. Raising tariffs could affect the trading relationships between the US and their inter...

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at incoming US and Eurozone inflation data this week which markets expect to increase despite divergent policy backdrops. Are we seeing a trend of inflation heating up?

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy and George Bell, Portfolio Manager, look at the backdrop of escalating tensions between the US and Russia its effects on gold and oil. Chris and George also look at the latest UK inflation data and what it says about the trajectory of the economy.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the most recent earnings report from technology company Nvidia and the market reaction. Nvidia is now the most valuable stock in the world, up over 200% this year alone, but can it maintain its position? 

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at the latest UK inflation reading which has came in at 2.3%, rising as markets have expected following the government’s budget announcement. Kevin looks at the growth outlook and the Bank of England’s interest rate cut trajectory and the pressures the economy will face moving into 2025.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the potential role inflation played in winning the US election for Trump as well as a look at the post pandemic price levels that still remain elevated approximately 30% higher than in January 2020. Some economists believe that we are entering into an era of expansive US fiscal policy and we could see a shift in central bank inflation targeting to pr...

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks to a week filled with data from the UK that will give insight into the economy. Expectations are that UK inflation will go up due to energy costs, will this change the Bank of England’s interest rate cut cycle? We will also get housing and manufacturing data from the US with a keen eye on whether growth in the goods sector can be seen after a stagnant two y...

Kevin Kidney, Investment Director and Faye Graham, Investment Analyst, refocus on UK markets after major market events from the US. Our experts look at the UK jobs data, the economic growth outlook and the Bank of England’s interest rate cut expectations.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the sudden drop in gold prices since the US election and what may have caused the shift in sentiment towards the asset. Seb also looks at the spike in Bitcoin which may be being driven by a Trump cabinet which has a favourable outlook on cryptocurrency. Will cryptocurrency be increasingly viewed as an alternative to gold?

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy looks at the strength in the US equity market driven by Trump’s proposals to cut corporation tax for US companies as well as tax cuts for high earners and lower regulation. Chris also looks at the potential trade tariffs on European goods imported as well as other regions and the market expectation of a rise in US headline inflation for the first time...

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, discusses the advancements of global stock markets, and key factors that support the health of the UK economy. So far, the US election outcome has been well digested by stock markets but bond markets are trying to digest the prospect of inflationary headwinds given the proposal of higher tariffs. The UK labour market demonstrates resilience in the face of a period o...

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks to the week ahead which has data on US inflation, with an expectation for headline inflation to drop to 2.4% but core remain at 3.3% due to strong economic growth. Matt also looks at UK GDP and employment data with the latter showing signs of weakness.

This week, Paul Durrans and Sebastian Mackay, Investment Directors, look at the major events over the past nine days and the far reaching implications they could have for markets. From the UK Budget announcement to the US election as well as interest rate cuts from the respective central banks, Paul and Seb dig into the details and what this means for markets.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the emerging Republican majority and the impacts this could have on the effectiveness of the Trump cabinets economic policy. We also look at the trajectory of interest rate policy with the upcoming Federal Reserve decision later today.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the immediate market reaction following Donald Trumps election victory and how this could shape future economic policy for the Federal Reserve who meet Thursday. Will the US economy continue on its growth trajectory?

With the US election result tomorrow, Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at recent market movements and examines the impact on US assets as well as a look at the recent announcement from OPEC+ on oil supply reduction.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, looks at the imminent US election and how it is currently affecting markets. While both candidates are not expected to change the US growth outlook, nuances in policy could affect wider markets such as in the UK where the Bank of England has a decision on interest rates. This places them as the first financial institution to have a decision on monetary polic...

This morning, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, rounds up the data from the European and US quarterly GDP reports. He covers better-than-expected growth in France and Germany, the strength of the US consumer, and a surprise spike in UK gilt yields as a reaction to yesterday's budget.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at further evidence from the US that the labour market is cooling as positions advertised but not filled fell to 7.4 million, the lowest since January 2021. The Consumer Confidence Index indicates an optimism about the future and equities remain resilient as corporate earnings season continues with a strength in technology but also in broader sectors as well w...